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#1442771 - 29/11/2017 19:25 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8412
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Waiting for my invite Ken grin

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#1442772 - 29/11/2017 19:27 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Stevo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 86
Loc: The Gap
Check out the latest EC model run, 250mm+ for Monday and Tuesday next week. Been a while since that amount of rain has been forecast. No doubt the models are having a hard time with this one. Suffice to say there would be some concern if the latest ec model came off.


Edited by Stevo (29/11/2017 19:28)

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#1442780 - 29/11/2017 20:48 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Stevo]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2033
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Stevo
Check out the latest EC model run, 250mm+ for Monday and Tuesday next week. Been a while since that amount of rain has been forecast. No doubt the models are having a hard time with this one. Suffice to say there would be some concern if the latest ec model came off.


What makes that even more interesting is all the previous rainfall that would have primed the catchments. Tonight's 00Z has 300-400 mm across a lot of SEQ in this entire event, with the big falls happening quickly near the end.

GFS and ACCESS-G have all the big falls occurring offshore along a N-S axis, whereas EC has it falling right along SEQ. Is EC thinking that the Tasman high will be stronger and block the trough from moving offshore? Not sure who will win out here, all models sticking to their guns for now. I suspect it will be offshore falls.

EDIT: Some pretty massive falls forecast for parts of NSW and most of Victoria as well.


Edited by Nature's Fury (29/11/2017 20:52)

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#1442783 - 29/11/2017 20:55 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 877
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Wow Stevo, I suspect tomorrow mornings Watyl may be an upgrade in potential.
Looks like some general agreement on 125mm with EC out to 425 in what looks like the Warril/Logan.
Catchments are primed.
Interesting to watch... in both real-time and forecast

Nice rain here today, ephemeral creek refilled the dam. Abt 64mm since it started raining last night.

Edit thanks NF good summary.


Edited by Blowin' (29/11/2017 20:57)

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#1442784 - 29/11/2017 20:58 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4882
I decided to run that automatic text forecast script for today just out of curiosity to see what it'd spit out and the result is the 1st image below.

Also below is a comparison of 8-day totals from a few of the models via Weatherzone Layers at https://www.weatherzone.com.au/layers/ using last night's 12z runs - as you can see, pretty similar regarding the bigger picture.

By early next week, the front looks like stalling as it gets closer to SE QLD/NE NSW and aided by that big upper level trough, should cause showers & periods of rain to increase over our region again.
If the upper trough weakens & slides too far to our SE, it'll be a bit of a fizzer.... but if it stays strong and/or an east coast low develops just to our north and close enough to the coast, widespread flooding rain would be possible.






Edited by Ken Kato (29/11/2017 21:02)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1442786 - 29/11/2017 21:07 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Stevo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 86
Loc: The Gap
Good summary NF. 110mm since this morning here with 68 in an hour.

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#1442787 - 29/11/2017 21:21 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3159
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks Ken for putting up the pretty colours. I suppose it doesnt matter which map you look at, plenty rain coming.
Epic, biblical, insane, a big fat ECL over Hervey Bay will do nicely for us thanks.

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#1442788 - 29/11/2017 21:37 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6835
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Stevo
Check out the latest EC model run, 250mm+ for Monday and Tuesday next week. Been a while since that amount of rain has been forecast. No doubt the models are having a hard time with this one. Suffice to say there would be some concern if the latest ec model came off.


What makes that even more interesting is all the previous rainfall that would have primed the catchments. Tonight's 00Z has 300-400 mm across a lot of SEQ in this entire event, with the big falls happening quickly near the end.

GFS and ACCESS-G have all the big falls occurring offshore along a N-S axis, whereas EC has it falling right along SEQ. Is EC thinking that the Tasman high will be stronger and block the trough from moving offshore? Not sure who will win out here, all models sticking to their guns for now. I suspect it will be offshore falls.

EDIT: Some pretty massive falls forecast for parts of NSW and most of Victoria as well.


Looks like a sharper trough up through SEQ on EC whereas GFS is a lot broader. Sharper trough = steeper N/NE flow funneling into the coast, flatter or broader trough = typical NW steering (still good for widespread showers & storms though).

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#1442796 - 29/11/2017 22:17 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Foehn Correspondent Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 575
Loc: Bardon 4065
111 mm of rain at Mt Cootha caused all the local creeks to flood around here. The usual places going underwater albeit for a short time. Sitting there taking a couple of photos surprised at the number of people who did the right thing stopped and turned around. Still some who don't get the message.

Ithaca Creek by Greg, on Flickr[/img]
_________________________
My Flickr Page

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#1442798 - 29/11/2017 22:32 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Foehn Correspondent]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2033
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Thanks Ken and Mega.

Also, Brisbane Weather (Facebook) strikes again!

Breaking News

Please Share

Heavy rain is a very high chance for early next week. Very heavy falls with the rain is likely

Thursday Rain and showers easing
Friday showers
Saturday mostly fine
Sunday, Monday and Tuesday very heavy falls

I used a method and worked out with Debbie some places would get 1000mm and that method seemed to work

I have used the same method with this system and came up with grand totals from now until Tuesday 8am.

25 inches or 648 mm WOW that's going to hurt!


If this event holds then this is going to cause some serious problems

I urge for everyone to please start preparing now incase this event does turn real which i am pretty comfortable that it will at the moment

Most of the heaviest falls will fall Sunday to Tuesday

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#1442801 - 29/11/2017 22:45 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1411
Loc: Australia
I like the embedded video on the BOM website, explains it clearly about the event, and they actually explain about the upper levels of the atmosphere which leads to this event.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dP3Pjoa8g7Q&t

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#1442806 - 29/11/2017 23:03 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1749
Loc: Kingaroy
WATL is increasing the rainfall totals over the eight days.

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#1442809 - 29/11/2017 23:37 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: gleno71]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 286
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I like the embedded video on the BOM website, explains it clearly about the event, and they actually explain about the upper levels of the atmosphere which leads to this event.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dP3Pjoa8g7Q&t



Yes I thought that was a better video than past severe weather briefing videos. They have only been doing these for about a year or two. So probably refining the right level of content. Hope they continue to develop with more content like today's.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1442821 - 30/11/2017 07:17 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Stevo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 86
Loc: The Gap
Well latest gfs and ec are starting to align a bit in terms of rainfall with roughly 100-125mm over the broad se, mostly falling overnight Sunday and through Monday with rapid clearance Tuesday. Then it looks like some real summer weather with temperatures in the 30s.
Already some heavy showers approaching sunny coast this morning. Can certainly feel the moisture in the air.

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#1442823 - 30/11/2017 07:26 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
sixties Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/12/2009
Posts: 129
Loc: Cabooltrue North
Quote:
I wish people could actually experience a typical day in the forecasting centre in Brisbane... then they'd get to see for themselves just how much meteorology, human input and manual adjustments goes into the forecasts for SE QLD especially when there's significant weather around.


is that an offer ken?

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#1442830 - 30/11/2017 08:32 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Stevo]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2033
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Stevo
Well latest gfs and ec are starting to align a bit in terms of rainfall with roughly 100-125mm over the broad se, mostly falling overnight Sunday and through Monday with rapid clearance Tuesday. Then it looks like some real summer weather with temperatures in the 30s.
Already some heavy showers approaching sunny coast this morning. Can certainly feel the moisture in the air.


Real shame about EC. Aligned with the others this morning, big falls offshore.

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#1442831 - 30/11/2017 08:34 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4421
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 30.0mm, event total 59.4mm.

Year to date total 1040.8mm. Average YTD total to end of Nov. 1043.mm, so finally caught up after being behind most of the year.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb214.6(146)YTD226.8(304),

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#1442832 - 30/11/2017 08:40 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Rod H Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/05/2006
Posts: 29
Loc: Maudsland
Have any of you weather Guru's got any better idea/ feelings about the weather forecast for Saturday 2nd Dec. in Oxenford ( South Coast )? That's when we are holding or hope to hold our Rotary Carols in the park.The official forecast is *80% 1-5 mm .
Any comments will be greatly appreciated.
I need to try and get as good an idea as possible as there will be a stage with a fair bit of electrical gear on it which will not like the rain!!
Thanks. Rod H
P.S. Re-posting this from the SE QLD. section day to day

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#1442833 - 30/11/2017 08:40 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: retired weather man]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2033
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Not our area, but this event will be pretty huge for Victoria and NSW. Falls between 100-300 mm for most of Vic and southern NSW. They're getting pretty excitable in the VIC/NSW forums and rightly so. That would be a very historic event, considering that Victoria's idea of a major rain event is usually like 50 mm.

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#1442834 - 30/11/2017 08:42 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Rod H]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2033
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Rod H
Have any of you weather Guru's got any better idea/ feelings about the weather forecast for Saturday 2nd Dec. in Oxenford ( South Coast )? That's when we are holding or hope to hold our Rotary Carols in the park.The official forecast is *80% 1-5 mm .
Any comments will be greatly appreciated.
I need to try and get as good an idea as possible as there will be a stage with a fair bit of electrical gear on it which will not like the rain!!
Thanks. Rod H
P.S. Re-posting this from the SE QLD. section day to day


Saturday looks pretty good (mostly fine/light isolated showers at worst). It's in that calm period between the onshore activity from late this week and the approaching front. Sunday, Monday is another story though.

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