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#1442567 - 28/11/2017 11:29 SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
A series of upper troughs and surface troughyness will begin to affect our area over the next week or so. The first of these upper troughs is expected to commence tomorrow with increasing instability and moisture levels. Shear is expected to be weak over the next few days. So probably be some pulsy cells around with locally heavy falls if your lucky to be under one.





Edited by Seabreeze (29/11/2017 18:50)
Edit Reason: added month, year, and uncaps parts of the title
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#1442578 - 28/11/2017 13:09 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3386
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Oh boy its hot, humid, bit of a breeze now & then, big fat dark bottomed clouds around the place. Building up like something going to go bang & looking at this mornings 8day WATL, I'm getting a tad excited.

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#1442589 - 28/11/2017 16:23 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 919
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Inbound from the NE
Looks like a wet night

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#1442605 - 28/11/2017 19:21 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
More often then not new areas of activity will form closer or along the coast then watching a rain that is well off the coast do nothing and sit there. Especially when wind shear is expected to be weak. The upper low if it gets in the right position for us during tomorrow should help push more deeper NE'ly onto the SE coast. Hopefully with showers and embedded storms.
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#1442619 - 28/11/2017 21:06 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 919
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Definitely, has been a bit of that in the last few weeks.

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#1442642 - 29/11/2017 07:11 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2422
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Just quickly glancing GFS stormcast Sunday and Monday look to be good for storms. Sunday appears more Coastal with Monday being more wide spread. The sounding for 16:00 on Monday was OK too.
My daughter had her four wisdom teeth out yesterday and I spent the the day at the hospital and was up all night up with her to make sure she was OK, so I haven't had the time to really sit down and run through all the models yet.
Nice heavy showers this morning after a very muggy night.
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#1442644 - 29/11/2017 07:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5194
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Well the latest EC has some interesting totals for NE NSW and SE QLD. Seeing some (wisely) moderated reflection of that in the WATL run this morning. Certainly an interesting week coming up...and about time too. Sure there will be some moderation in the ensemble, waiting with interest.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/1535-e-296-s/accumulated-precipitation/20171208-1200z.html

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#1442646 - 29/11/2017 08:14 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 283
Loc: Golden Beach
Late update for Sunny Coast
Possible 40mm. You don't see that every day - sweet!

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#1442649 - 29/11/2017 08:30 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5194
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Just for the record...

WATL:



EC Control:



GFS:



Usually GFS with the crazy totals, WATL wisely (and likely correctly?) between the two, will be interesting to watch this one as we draw closer. ACCESS is closer to the GFS solution.
Images with thanks to and from weather.us, bsch and BoM.

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#1442653 - 29/11/2017 09:03 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 72
Loc: noosaville
Nice little storm just to our north here in Noosa, just heard thunder and it seems be throwing a fair bit of lightening too according to the weatherzone radar. Hopefully it continues in this direction as its been too long in between storms (even thought its not your typical Spring storm).

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#1442655 - 29/11/2017 09:12 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
WeatherNut96 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2015
Posts: 61
Loc: Cleveland, Brisbane
Some nice Grumbles from the yellow blob

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#1442661 - 29/11/2017 09:47 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1560
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
There should be flash flood warnings out for some of these showers and rain areas. Absolutely pouring here in Buderim like I have not seen for years
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#1442664 - 29/11/2017 09:55 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 421
Loc: Salisbury
Finally some rain the gauge will record is falling here at Salisbury, been missing any recordable rain all morning up till now.

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#1442670 - 29/11/2017 10:11 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4617
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain to 0900 - 29.2mm, now breaking the 1000mm for the year to date.

Short lived thunderstorms commenced locally 0807 this morning.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 0.4(45),YTD664.2(801.8)

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#1442678 - 29/11/2017 10:50 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Snapper22lb]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 94
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Late update for Sunny Coast
Possible 40mm. You don't see that every day - sweet!


Already logged over 55mm so far here this morning. smile

It's a thundery, rainy mess, but looking at the radar it's coming from the perfect direction for the valley and I'd say we'll have a nice total by this afternoon.
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Going to sleep with heavy rain on a tin roof always makes for ‘wetdreams’….

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#1442693 - 29/11/2017 12:40 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4617
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 25.2 since 0900, making event total to date 54.4mm.

Manly West - 37.4mm to 0900, 56.2mm since 0900, event total to date 93.6mm.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 0.4(45),YTD664.2(801.8)

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#1442694 - 29/11/2017 12:59 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 421
Loc: Salisbury
11.8mm event total so far here at Salisbury, all falling after 9.00 a.m today...nothing to sneeze at, but closer to the coastline is certainly getting a much better drink then we are.

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#1442695 - 29/11/2017 13:08 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3386
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Fantastic steady rain after frequent drizzle earlier, 4mm so far. Frogs lovin it.

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#1442697 - 29/11/2017 13:09 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
First storm warning for heavy rainfall from BOM.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in Southeast Coast and parts of Wide Bay and Burnett and Darling Downs and Granite Belt Forecast Districts.

Issued at 12:01 pm Wednesday, 29 November 2017.
Weather Situation:
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Toowoomba, Brisbane, Maroochydore, Gympie, Bundaberg and Caboolture.
62mm recorded in an hour at Enoggera Dam.
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#1442698 - 29/11/2017 13:12 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Storms, possible heavy falls - 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 487
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
11am to noon recorded some 1 hour totals over 50 mm in western suburbs of Brisbane. More rain continuing like this likely to produce some stream rises.

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