Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >
Topic Options
#1442616 - 28/11/2017 20:41 NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 618
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
Possible flood watch in the next day with falls on the western southern slopes of 75-100mm with locally more. Quite possible we will see some flooding on rivers such as the Tumut, Belubula, and maybe larger ones like the Lachlan and the Murrumbidgee.
Friday night into Sunday morning looks the heaviest of the rain. I'd expect a severe weather warning for flash flooding on the cards too.
Let the educated speculation commence!


Edited by Seabreeze (29/11/2017 18:53)
Edit Reason: added state and year

Top
#1442625 - 28/11/2017 22:12 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4223
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Some big totals forecast fir the SW over the next 8 day, with a 200mm patch near Wagga. To much of a good thing?



Image taken from BOM Rainfall and River Conditions (link will update):

8 Day Forecast Rainfall

Top
#1442696 - 29/11/2017 13:08 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
We have an initial flood watch by the BOM for rivers in the Murrumbidgee catchments.

It includes a number of streams around here including the BELUBULA R, BELL R, MOLONG CREEK. (The last 2 actually are in the Macquarie catchment)

Also re Tumut River too further south and parts of the Murrumbidgee. Logically the Lachlan may be involved.

Minor flooding generally is all it mentions. Interesting though.

Top
#1442745 - 29/11/2017 16:30 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
BOM have significantly downgraded rainfall for Sydney on Saturday.
It's gone from 15-30 mm's this morning to 5-8 mm's this afternoon.
Spiffing.

Top
#1442759 - 29/11/2017 18:12 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8519
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Big problems coming up for much of the SE and possibly parts of the eastern seaboard. Exacerbated further by widespread high SST anomalies - in fact some of the most significant I've ever seen for the tasman and surrounds. Expecting some big upgrades in next few model runs

Top
#1442763 - 29/11/2017 19:01 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Long Road Home]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2804
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Big problems coming up for much of the SE and possibly parts of the eastern seaboard. Exacerbated further by widespread high SST anomalies - in fact some of the most significant I've ever seen for the tasman and surrounds. Expecting some big upgrades in next few model runs


A marine heatwave of sorts, not sure I've ever seen them so much above average.
_________________________
Lane Cove Weather - WU

Top
#1442793 - 29/11/2017 21:55 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 916
Loc: Cammeray
Aside from the fact that the anomalies arenít evident inshore, does the fact that itís December rather than March mitigate it? I.e. the anomalous temps are still less than typical late summer arenít they?

Top
#1442846 - 30/11/2017 10:11 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Long Road Home]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1576
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Big problems coming up for much of the SE and possibly parts of the eastern seaboard. Exacerbated further by widespread high SST anomalies - in fact some of the most significant I've ever seen for the tasman and surrounds. Expecting some big upgrades in next few model runs


Looks good for some areas....probably areas that are in harvest and dont want it. Hopefully there are many people who will be very happy though.

Typical hole for Hunter again. Fires around a couple days back. Dams dropping dropping....
We should get our turn but there are no guarantees.... Should be widespread big floods by April really, but the shield has been pretty strong in this neck of the wood for 2.5 years. The weather guy on channel 9 for this area keeps commenting on the "hole" in the weather system over us "yet again"
Maybe the secondary low early next week will go good for us and another ECL in 10 days time.
May those that want it get their dams filled!

Top
#1442857 - 30/11/2017 10:49 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4223
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There's warm water off the coast although it's cooler inshore. It spiked just below 22, about 2 above average for this time of year, at the MHL buoy off Manly yesterday. The Southern Tasman looks to be much warmer than average.

There are big totals projected over Victoria. The BOM forecast has 55-145mm for Melbourne over Dec 1-3 with more later in the week. Down there, they get excited by 5-10mm. Similar or higher totals are projected over a wide area of Vic and Southern NSW, e.g. an amazing 73-210mm for Albury Wodonga. Not sure how well that will go down. I think the South prefers to get its rain in Winter.

----

Sunny, warm, humid and partly cloudy with a moderate Easterly here.

I think the hygrometer at Newcastle is broken. It's been showing 100% for a while. Webcam shows no fog.

Top
#1442867 - 30/11/2017 11:40 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3126
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
My interest in this event of course is storms. The low will wrap around cooler dry air somewhere around the Riverina or Central West later Saturday. Could make for some fire crackers on that boundary.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

Top
#1442869 - 30/11/2017 11:59 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2255
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not confident of this event - models have backflipped every run regarding rainfall accumulations and locations. Fingers crossed everywhere gets a great start to Dec. EC defin looks the best out of all the models, which is unusual.

But it looks horrid for Illawarra to Hunter frown warm and humid an f'all rain.


Edited by Kino (30/11/2017 12:01)

Top
#1442878 - 30/11/2017 12:20 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 436
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Under a heavy shower right now. Looks like there's more to come with a line of showers across the basin. Meanwhile BoM changed the forecast at 10AM to party cloudy. nice one

Top
#1442879 - 30/11/2017 12:26 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3126
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Kino
Not confident of this event - models have backflipped every run regarding rainfall accumulations and locations. Fingers crossed everywhere gets a great start to Dec. EC defin looks the best out of all the models, which is unusual.

But it looks horrid for Illawarra to Hunter frown warm and humid an f'all rain.


BOM always over estimate coastal rainfall for these events coming from NW
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

Top
#1442883 - 30/11/2017 12:35 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2255
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Well I'm hoping they underestimate this time because if they're over with 15mm we're stuffed frown

Top
#1442887 - 30/11/2017 13:00 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Sidney]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Sidney
Under a heavy shower right now. Looks like there's more to come with a line of showers across the basin. Meanwhile BoM changed the forecast at 10AM to party cloudy. nice one


Are they kidding? One look at the radar proves that that forecast is so wrong. Maybe they meant over the roof of the BOM office? smile

Also, those showers you are getting are flowing down from the north, all forming tantalisingly close to the west of me.
Even one shower earlier heading straight for me died in the arse just past Hornsby. Damn!!!
Hoping to make up for it on the weekend with a torrential 0.5 mm downpour. grin

Top
#1442891 - 30/11/2017 13:17 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 950
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Can see some impressive bubbling cu to the north west looking from Darling Harbour.


Edited by Perfect Storm (30/11/2017 13:19)
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would probably be full of highs and lows.

Top
#1442932 - 30/11/2017 16:47 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
A huge amount of cloud starting to cover large swathes of SE Oz.

Top
#1442964 - 30/11/2017 19:38 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4223
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The models are showing a possible ECL mid next week (Tuesday - Wednesday) closely following the current event. Should we extend the date of this thread to cover that as well?

----

Mild and humid with sea gales and fast-flying patches of low cloud. Another February-like day for Sydney. No rain here, it was warm and humid and mostly sunny all day. There were falls of up to 12mm from those showers in Sydney's SW early this afternoon.

Top
#1443083 - 01/12/2017 12:14 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
Duane should be in the firing line for some fairly hefty totals out of this event.

Top
#1443090 - 01/12/2017 12:50 Re: NSW - Rain, storms and flooding 1-3 December 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Duane Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/11/2005
Posts: 1411
Loc: Lake Albert, Wagga Wagga, NSW.
Yes. Certainly feels like it. So humid that the air feels like 100% water. Forecast total now gone back up to 40-80mm.
Duane.

Top
Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >


Who's Online
8 registered (Surly Bond, roves, ozone doug, Antarctic Whaler, dazzarama, Lee@Hazo, Weary, 1 invisible), 345 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
anvildome, Davenn
Forum Stats
29610 Members
32 Forums
23931 Topics
1494267 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image