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#1443336 - 02/12/2017 16:07 Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hi all - on the back of this trough/upper low as it moves off the east coast; it bombs and a tight ECL forms off the Mid North Coast and then slides south along the coast as a classic ECL.

ACCESS very bullish for torrential rain from the Illawarra south; other models spread the love.

One thing not locked in is whether we will see any gales onshore.













Edited by Seabreeze (03/12/2017 14:47)
Edit Reason: added year

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#1443437 - 03/12/2017 05:45 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 521
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Looking nice on accessR latest. Two lows!

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#1443438 - 03/12/2017 05:48 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 521
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
From bom:
A low pressure trough lies over northeast New South Wales, and another over the southeast. These troughs will generate showers today, while a ridge of high pressure extending across from the Bight should promote fine weather through most of the inland. A new, broader trough is expected to develop off the coast during Monday in response to an approaching upper-level feature, with several weak low pressure circulations likely to develop along its length. This is expected to result in areas of enhanced rainfall near the coast, as determined by the positioning of the low centres.

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#1443531 - 03/12/2017 14:41 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Still looking good for 1 or even 2 ECL's to form and tap into abundant moisture and good SST's. Hopefully it'll deliver to the areas that have mainly missed out (like the Illawarra).

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#1443533 - 03/12/2017 14:45 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
EC looks goooood - 3 day accumulations.



Edited by Kino (03/12/2017 14:46)

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#1443609 - 03/12/2017 19:38 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 534
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Not much coming our way according to the BoM, 15mm tops for tomorrow, and even less on Tuesday. Maybe the south coast will get something decent.

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#1443624 - 03/12/2017 20:27 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3782
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here are the forecast totals from the BOM (4 Day Forecast rainfall Dec 3-6). This event looks to be mainly focussed on the South Coast, although useful totals penetrate to the Central and Southern Tablelands and slopes:



The BOM forecast issued at 4:20 this afternoon is expecting falls of about 10-30mm over Sydney, 25-60 in Wollongong but 90-190mm at Narooma.

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#1443631 - 03/12/2017 21:13 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1505
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
We need some good rain real bed here in the Hunter
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/groups/422596304525834/

http://supercell1.camstreams.com/ Ellalong live weathercam,from my front verandah.

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#1443632 - 03/12/2017 21:16 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sadly it looks touch and go again, after such strong consistent runs. Latest EC pushes most action off the coast, again. smirk infuriating.

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#1443652 - 04/12/2017 05:53 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
eauetsoleil Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/01/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Bexley North
More go than touch outside.
Heavy rain interrupting last chance for more sleep this Monday morning.for large swags of inland metro Sydney.

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#1443660 - 04/12/2017 07:44 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3782
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Applies to the coast from Nowra to Narooma:

Code:
Severe Weather Warning for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Illawarra and South Coast Forecast Districts.

Issued at 6:24 am Monday, 4 December 2017.
COASTAL TROUGH BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN COAST

A trough is deepening near the NSW coast, and is expected to 
bring periods of heavy rain to the southern NSW coast today 
and Tuesday. Rainfall may be enhanced on a local scale by 
the development of small low pressure circulations within 
the trough, and thunderstorm activity.

Totally overcast and rather chilly here. It looks like there's been a bit of rain. There are showers about, mostly South of here. Canterbury and Marrickville SW of the City had 16 and 12mm respectively, with other falls mainly under 5 mm around Sydney.

I think it will struggle to reach the forecast 22 unless we get a few sunny breaks.


Edited by Steve777 (04/12/2017 07:52)

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#1443677 - 04/12/2017 10:20 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Cold and overcast here; it'll struggle to get to 19 the way it's going. No rain aside form a small splash earlier.

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#1443678 - 04/12/2017 10:31 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 350
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Mangrove mountain 30mm in 20 mins. Intense

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#1443705 - 04/12/2017 12:56 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 222
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
My understanding of true ECL is a low that stays near the coast for 24 hrs. Latest access model forecast suggests that low develop near SE Qld and track to the south along coast like a true ECL event.

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#1443713 - 04/12/2017 13:09 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1576
Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Hi guys, spending some time back up in Darwin at the moment. How are things looking with this Low down that way?

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#1443714 - 04/12/2017 13:13 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Max744]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Max744
Hi guys, spending some time back up in Darwin at the moment. How are things looking with this Low down that way?


Heya Max - still forecast to develop later today/tonight, BoM have it primarily impacting the South Coast. Latest EC has numerous LLCC"s so it may be a little more widespread than that; however most activity looks to be off the coast frown

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#1443715 - 04/12/2017 13:14 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1407
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
A very nice looking shower heading this way.....please stay intact. Need every drop. Could be an inch in that if we get collected.

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#1443716 - 04/12/2017 13:16 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1576
Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Max744
Hi guys, spending some time back up in Darwin at the moment. How are things looking with this Low down that way?


Heya Max - still forecast to develop later today/tonight, BoM have it primarily impacting the South Coast. Latest EC has numerous LLCC"s so it may be a little more widespread than that; however most activity looks to be off the coast frown



Many thanks Kino smile

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#1443718 - 04/12/2017 13:20 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Latest doppler / radar shows a small low developing off the Illawarra as we speak.

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#1443722 - 04/12/2017 13:26 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I reckon our Low is starting to wind up now - lightning has been recorded to our NE (off Sydney)_ which is usually a good precursor to LLCC development. It's a bit further north than modelled - now we wait and see which LLCC dominates and it's impact.

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