#1444068 - 06/12/2017 23:21
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: Kino]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1901
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
|
Classic La Niña = crap storm season.
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#1444073 - 06/12/2017 23:53
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: Kino]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6698
|
The storm season so far hasn't been too bad here in the Illawarra, considering we often do worse than Sydney.
I certainly would not call the low that we've just had an ECL. It was more a few weak lows along a trough line.
Edited by Wave Rider (06/12/2017 23:54)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.
2017-18 storm total= 11 Oct 25th Nov 6th(3), 17th Dec 2nd, 14th Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#1444094 - 07/12/2017 10:06
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: Kino]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6698
|
Sydney's forecast has been upgraded to 32C today. Seems possible given the very weak sea breeze expected for today.
Edited by Wave Rider (07/12/2017 10:08)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.
2017-18 storm total= 11 Oct 25th Nov 6th(3), 17th Dec 2nd, 14th Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#1444098 - 07/12/2017 10:51
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: CoastalStorm22]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3091
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
|
Rubbish, crap storm seasons are norm now regardless of ENSO. I agree, as a person that chases everything available on weekends and after 5pm on work days. This season is better than last 3, but pales compared to 30 years ago when I started doing chasing.
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#1444100 - 07/12/2017 11:02
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: Kino]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1901
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
|
Nostalgia or actual fact/data?
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#1444101 - 07/12/2017 11:09
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: Kino]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6698
|
I would say La Nina's are better than El Nino's for storm seasons. Yes it's true that they are pretty much crap regardless of ENSO but at least with La Nina you don't have constant problems with moisture as you do with El Nino.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.
2017-18 storm total= 11 Oct 25th Nov 6th(3), 17th Dec 2nd, 14th Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#1444103 - 07/12/2017 11:14
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: Kino]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1901
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
|
The data I've seen previously trends to show Neutral / weak El Nino's are better for strong/severe storms due to colder uppers & better shear profiles - La Nina's = too much moisture, saturated atmosphere, better for rain events or sloppy wet storms.
Recent events are more because of +SAM and very mobile, slow moving upper cold pools. Maybe this part of the world SAM is more a driver for Spring / Autumn events. Be an interesting research / study.
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#1444104 - 07/12/2017 11:35
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: Kino]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6698
|
Yeah Steve I was almost going to bring the December 2014 storm event up yesterday. That was very memorable indeed, we got more than 10 storms in 8 days I think.
Yes Kino that would probably make sense. I think this La Nina could be okay though because the IOD is positive so everything is not saturated. I actually have a good feeling about this summer for storms. Early signs have been good like having a few upper lows already and pretty good moisture at the surface.
I reckon +SAM would be better for storms but -SAM would push cold fronts further north so that would bring the prospect of squall line type setups which would be cool.
Edited by Wave Rider (07/12/2017 11:37)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.
2017-18 storm total= 11 Oct 25th Nov 6th(3), 17th Dec 2nd, 14th Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#1444113 - 07/12/2017 12:39
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: Kino]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1901
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
|
2014 was an El Nino so that fits what I've previously seen perfectly. IoD has no effect on summer patterns - The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April.
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#1444123 - 07/12/2017 14:59
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: Kino]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8465
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
|
Oct-Dec 2004 was during a neutral phase and NSW had no shear whatsoever. The basin was so humid, but the moisture only stayed on the surface, nothing above about 1km up. Storms fired up in the far west regularly but never moved east and they were mostly high based. SImilar thing happened in 2006, latter part of summer into autumn - that was also neutral going into a weak el nino.
ENSO doesn't dictate the seasons, or at least not as much as other factors do.
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#1444142 - 07/12/2017 18:38
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: Kino]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1901
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
|
Sorry, it was an El Niño. And ENSO impacts summer than early spring, a point emphasised all the time by the BoM in their climate outlooks. December 2014 was well into El Niño. And the conditions you describe are atypical El Niño.... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–16_El_Niño_event
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#1444156 - 07/12/2017 19:25
Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
[Re: Kino]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6698
|
LRH has written 2004 in his post.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.
2017-18 storm total= 11 Oct 25th Nov 6th(3), 17th Dec 2nd, 14th Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
29543 Members
32 Forums
23882 Topics
1489328 Posts
Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
|
|
|