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#1443336 - 02/12/2017 16:07 Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hi all - on the back of this trough/upper low as it moves off the east coast; it bombs and a tight ECL forms off the Mid North Coast and then slides south along the coast as a classic ECL.

ACCESS very bullish for torrential rain from the Illawarra south; other models spread the love.

One thing not locked in is whether we will see any gales onshore.













Edited by Seabreeze (03/12/2017 14:47)
Edit Reason: added year

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#1443437 - 03/12/2017 05:45 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Online   content
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Posts: 523
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Looking nice on accessR latest. Two lows!

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#1443438 - 03/12/2017 05:48 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Online   content
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Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 523
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
From bom:
A low pressure trough lies over northeast New South Wales, and another over the southeast. These troughs will generate showers today, while a ridge of high pressure extending across from the Bight should promote fine weather through most of the inland. A new, broader trough is expected to develop off the coast during Monday in response to an approaching upper-level feature, with several weak low pressure circulations likely to develop along its length. This is expected to result in areas of enhanced rainfall near the coast, as determined by the positioning of the low centres.

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#1443531 - 03/12/2017 14:41 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Still looking good for 1 or even 2 ECL's to form and tap into abundant moisture and good SST's. Hopefully it'll deliver to the areas that have mainly missed out (like the Illawarra).

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#1443533 - 03/12/2017 14:45 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
EC looks goooood - 3 day accumulations.



Edited by Kino (03/12/2017 14:46)

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#1443609 - 03/12/2017 19:38 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
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Registered: 10/11/2010
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Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Not much coming our way according to the BoM, 15mm tops for tomorrow, and even less on Tuesday. Maybe the south coast will get something decent.

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#1443624 - 03/12/2017 20:27 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here are the forecast totals from the BOM (4 Day Forecast rainfall Dec 3-6). This event looks to be mainly focussed on the South Coast, although useful totals penetrate to the Central and Southern Tablelands and slopes:



The BOM forecast issued at 4:20 this afternoon is expecting falls of about 10-30mm over Sydney, 25-60 in Wollongong but 90-190mm at Narooma.

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#1443631 - 03/12/2017 21:13 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Online   happy
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Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
We need some good rain real bed here in the Hunter
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#1443632 - 03/12/2017 21:16 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sadly it looks touch and go again, after such strong consistent runs. Latest EC pushes most action off the coast, again. smirk infuriating.

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#1443652 - 04/12/2017 05:53 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
eauetsoleil Offline
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Registered: 03/01/2016
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Loc: Bexley North
More go than touch outside.
Heavy rain interrupting last chance for more sleep this Monday morning.for large swags of inland metro Sydney.

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#1443660 - 04/12/2017 07:44 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Applies to the coast from Nowra to Narooma:

Code:
Severe Weather Warning for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Illawarra and South Coast Forecast Districts.

Issued at 6:24 am Monday, 4 December 2017.
COASTAL TROUGH BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN COAST

A trough is deepening near the NSW coast, and is expected to 
bring periods of heavy rain to the southern NSW coast today 
and Tuesday. Rainfall may be enhanced on a local scale by 
the development of small low pressure circulations within 
the trough, and thunderstorm activity.

Totally overcast and rather chilly here. It looks like there's been a bit of rain. There are showers about, mostly South of here. Canterbury and Marrickville SW of the City had 16 and 12mm respectively, with other falls mainly under 5 mm around Sydney.

I think it will struggle to reach the forecast 22 unless we get a few sunny breaks.


Edited by Steve777 (04/12/2017 07:52)

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#1443677 - 04/12/2017 10:20 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Cold and overcast here; it'll struggle to get to 19 the way it's going. No rain aside form a small splash earlier.

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#1443678 - 04/12/2017 10:31 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
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Registered: 20/12/2013
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Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Mangrove mountain 30mm in 20 mins. Intense

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#1443705 - 04/12/2017 12:56 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
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Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
My understanding of true ECL is a low that stays near the coast for 24 hrs. Latest access model forecast suggests that low develop near SE Qld and track to the south along coast like a true ECL event.

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#1443713 - 04/12/2017 13:09 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Max744 Offline
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Registered: 10/11/2002
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Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Hi guys, spending some time back up in Darwin at the moment. How are things looking with this Low down that way?

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#1443714 - 04/12/2017 13:13 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Max744]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Max744
Hi guys, spending some time back up in Darwin at the moment. How are things looking with this Low down that way?


Heya Max - still forecast to develop later today/tonight, BoM have it primarily impacting the South Coast. Latest EC has numerous LLCC"s so it may be a little more widespread than that; however most activity looks to be off the coast frown

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#1443715 - 04/12/2017 13:14 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
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Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
A very nice looking shower heading this way.....please stay intact. Need every drop. Could be an inch in that if we get collected.

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#1443716 - 04/12/2017 13:16 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Max744 Offline
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Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Max744
Hi guys, spending some time back up in Darwin at the moment. How are things looking with this Low down that way?


Heya Max - still forecast to develop later today/tonight, BoM have it primarily impacting the South Coast. Latest EC has numerous LLCC"s so it may be a little more widespread than that; however most activity looks to be off the coast frown



Many thanks Kino smile

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#1443718 - 04/12/2017 13:20 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Latest doppler / radar shows a small low developing off the Illawarra as we speak.

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#1443722 - 04/12/2017 13:26 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I reckon our Low is starting to wind up now - lightning has been recorded to our NE (off Sydney)_ which is usually a good precursor to LLCC development. It's a bit further north than modelled - now we wait and see which LLCC dominates and it's impact.

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#1443724 - 04/12/2017 13:29 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus


Night tight LLCC developing - like its location too. Now for a slow slide down the coast pliz and 200mm of rain.

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#1443732 - 04/12/2017 13:44 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
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Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 350
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Reports of waterspouts on the Illawarra stormchasers Facebook page. Anyone on this forum confirm?

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#1443740 - 04/12/2017 14:03 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Sidney]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Sidney
Reports of waterspouts on the Illawarra stormchasers Facebook page. Anyone on this forum confirm?


Wouldn't surprise me; doppler is pretty suss with some of those cells and rotation.

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#1443742 - 04/12/2017 14:13 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: GringosRain]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1410
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
A very nice looking shower heading this way.....please stay intact. Need every drop. Could be an inch in that if we get collected.


disintegrated as usual. 2mm. Standard.
So hard to get proper rain around here these days...

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#1443745 - 04/12/2017 14:35 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Online   happy
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Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Yes, it fizzed out before getting here GringosRain,just south of Kurri would have had a heavy fall,only 2 mms here as well, but big drops.A good drop at mangrove mountain this morning 31 mms,in a short time,some of theses showers are dropping some if you can get right under one of them.


Edited by Stormy3 (04/12/2017 14:37)
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#1443751 - 04/12/2017 14:49 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Finally some decent moderate rain here now - but bloody cold!

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#1443773 - 04/12/2017 17:15 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Max744 Offline
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Registered: 10/11/2002
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Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
Finally some decent moderate rain here now - but bloody cold!


I'll send you down some humid heat if you like poke

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#1443779 - 04/12/2017 17:47 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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Loc: Dural
It's quite unusual that we have a predominantly ECL setup, with the winds from a southerly quadrant, yet all the rain and showers are coming from the north. More a trough setup than an ECL I reckon at this stage.

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#1443792 - 04/12/2017 19:10 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Homer]
Wave Rider Offline
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Originally Posted By: Homer
It's quite unusual that we have a predominantly ECL setup, with the winds from a southerly quadrant, yet all the rain and showers are coming from the north. More a trough setup than an ECL I reckon at this stage.


Yeah definitely. It turns into a very weak surface low tomorrow but showers will still be coming from the N/NE because of an inland low at 700mb. Should be plenty of rain though even if it isn't an ECL.

As said by Kino above it certainly was bitterly cold today. And it's actually summer now. But summer proper really doesn't start til January anyway.


Edited by Wave Rider (04/12/2017 19:11)
_________________________
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2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1443799 - 04/12/2017 19:56 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
For the Coastal strip from the Shoalhave almost to the Victorian border:

Quote:

Severe Weather Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL and ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES
For people in parts of Illawarra and South Coast Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:49 pm Monday, 4 December 2017.
COASTAL TROUGH BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN COAST

A trough deepening near the NSW coast is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to the southern NSW coast tonight and on Tuesday. Rainfall may be enhanced on a local scale by the development of small low pressure circulations within the trough, and thunderstorm activity.

HEAVY RAIN, which may lead to FLASH FLOODING, is possible in coastal areas between Nowra and Narooma from this afternoon until Tuesday afternoon.

24 hour rain totals in excess of 100mm are likely, with the bulk of this forecast to fall at night.

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#1443828 - 04/12/2017 22:18 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8401
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Yeah Homer, so strange watching low cloud streaming from the N/NE yet a S'ly on the ground. Not sure if I've seen that before

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#1443831 - 04/12/2017 22:49 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Long Road Home]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5423
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Yeah Homer, so strange watching low cloud streaming from the N/NE yet a S'ly on the ground. Not sure if I've seen that before


Indeed.
Very unusual.

http://www.metservice.com/publicData/surfacePressureImage?time=20171205-0000-00.000

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#1443833 - 04/12/2017 23:08 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
[Whinge]
Let's have no more days like today 'til May
[/whinge]

Although it does look like we get another tomorrow.

We had a few heavy showers in the morning and another in the early afternoon. Even some sunny breaks around 5:00PPM. Chatswood has picked up 11mm since 9:00AM, most of Sydney between about 5 and 12.

EDIT: a few totals of 25mm+ have accumulated, with 58 at Point Perpendicular apparently the highest. Some useful falls on the Tablelands as well.


Edited by Steve777 (04/12/2017 23:14)

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#1443836 - 04/12/2017 23:27 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5423
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Steve777
[Whinge]
Let's have no more days like today 'til May
[/whinge]

Although it does look like we get another tomorrow.

We had a few heavy showers in the morning and another in the early afternoon. Even some sunny breaks around 5:00PPM. Chatswood has picked up 11mm since 9:00AM, most of Sydney between about 5 and 12.

EDIT: a few totals of 25mm+ have accumulated, with 58 at Point Perpendicular apparently the highest. Some useful falls on the Tablelands as well.


I was working at Grose Vale today. Strangely enough, I never even knew where Grose Vale was until last Friday when I was asked to go there to do some work this week, and I looked it up on Google Maps.
It was very dark and overcast all day there, and yet, not a drop of rain.
It wasn't until I was driving home and got down a little lower in elevation to Windsor and Richmond, that I encountered heavy showers.
Truly an interesting day today weatherwise. And..... Grose Vale and surrounds are truly quite scenic, being in the foothills of the Blue Mountains. Very much like Kurrajong Heights.

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#1443838 - 04/12/2017 23:49 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Jimi Offline
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Registered: 15/03/2004
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Loc: Cammeray
If Obs Hill doesn’t get past 18.6C again before 9am, where does that rank in terms of low December maximums?

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#1443840 - 05/12/2017 07:21 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Jimi]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Jimi
If Obs Hill doesn’t get past 18.6C again before 9am, where does that rank in terms of low December maximums?


Fairly unusual in terms of recent years, but not record territory. It would be the coldest December maximum in 15 years (when 16.1, the most recent sub-19). The 10th percentile lowest Dec maximum (once in 10 years) is 17.7.

There was an 18.6 maximum in January 2016.

------

It seems to have rained little or not at all overnight. The Sun is trying to break through without much success so far.

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#1443857 - 05/12/2017 09:09 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 534
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Another fizzer here, 3.7mm since 9am yesterday.

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#1443862 - 05/12/2017 09:16 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I see our top temp was 20 yesterday; dunno how that was recorded tbh. It felt like 10 all day. Airport must have left their toaster on.

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#1443863 - 05/12/2017 09:18 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Rainbow Spirit]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Rainbow Spirit
Another fizzer here, 3.7mm since 9am yesterday.


Don't know how it was a "fizzer" was never really forecast to do much for you? Always Illawarra and South Coast.

Those who could complain about it being a "fizzer" are us in the Illawarra - another event where we didn't even break 10mm yet everywhere does.

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#1443866 - 05/12/2017 09:33 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
We did get that huge stationary storm here a few weeks ago that no one else got.

Btw there's plenty of blue sky here and the sun is out. Temp already up to 20 degrees.


Edited by Wave Rider (05/12/2017 09:38)
_________________________
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2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1443869 - 05/12/2017 09:41 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9942
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well Bathurst Township got 33 mm over two big storms yesterday evening.

They largely missed the airport (about 6mm only)

I believe the 33 easily - very wet at my place last night - lots of lightning activity as well.

Caused big blackouts in northern parts of Bathurst and well north towards Sofala etc.

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#1443872 - 05/12/2017 09:59 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
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Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 534
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Last week the BoM was forecasting falls of up to 25mm for Mon and Tue here, so in my thoughts 3.7mm is a fizzer, I'd have been more than happy to have got what you guys got last month (116mm at Albion Park) why I'd have even taken half of what you got and been glad, all we got for Nov' was 23mm.

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#1443874 - 05/12/2017 10:04 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Rainbow Spirit]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Rainbow Spirit
Last week the BoM was forecasting falls of up to 25mm for Mon and Tue here, so in my thoughts 3.7mm is a fizzer, I'd have been more than happy to have got what you guys got last month (116mm at Albion Park) why I'd have even taken half of what you got and been glad, all we got for Nov' was 23mm.


True, but 116mm was nearly all the rain we've had in 6 months.

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#1443875 - 05/12/2017 10:26 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
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Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 534
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Kino, one has to agree that the last six months have been very dry around the central coastal regions of NSW, in your case (taking Albion Park as a measuring point) you got 209mm, and here (I use Horsely Park, which is my nearest BoM station) we got 171mm, some months we both got 0mm!

My grievance is that the BoM often forecasts rainfall amounts that never eventuate.

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#1443878 - 05/12/2017 10:31 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Rainfall totals have been disappointing on the coast, especially in light of all the cold gloom we've had to endure, but the tablelands have (at least locally) done well in storms, as Dave says.

Still, I don't the the fat lady (the one in the horned helmet) has yet sung on this. There's still a trough not far off the coast and we still have a Southerly air stream. It's not over until the low moves away South and the high ridges across from the West, probably in about 24 hours.

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#1443882 - 05/12/2017 10:59 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Came acorss this - a King Tide (?) at Farm Cove Sydney yesterday afternoon There had only been aboout 7-10mm of rain - maybe a high tide combined with onshore winds and low pressure, although the pressure wasn't that low:

Botanical Gardens Sydeny Dec 4



Edited by Steve777 (05/12/2017 11:00)

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#1443885 - 05/12/2017 11:19 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Rainfall totals have been disappointing on the coast, especially in light of all the cold gloom we've had to endure, but the tablelands have (at least locally) done well in storms, as Dave says.

Still, I don't the the fat lady (the one in the horned helmet) has yet sung on this. There's still a trough not far off the coast and we still have a Southerly air stream. It's not over until the low moves away South and the high ridges across from the West, probably in about 24 hours.


I'd say it's pretty much over tbh - sw'erlies here already. Suns out....bring on the next event! South Coast getting hammered.

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#1443886 - 05/12/2017 11:50 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
I would agree Kino, SWly winds at the surface and N/NE winds above aren't a good mix.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1443890 - 05/12/2017 12:16 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
Looks like there might be a bit of spin just east of Pt Perp?
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1443897 - 05/12/2017 12:54 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Steve777]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1907
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Came acorss this - a King Tide (?) at Farm Cove Sydney yesterday afternoon There had only been aboout 7-10mm of rain - maybe a high tide combined with onshore winds and low pressure, although the pressure wasn't that low:

Botanical Gardens Sydeny Dec 4


Might have been even higher this morning as the predicted peak was higher than yesterday as was the observed residual.
http://new.mhl.nsw.gov.au/data/realtime/oceantide/Station-213470. << updates

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#1443900 - 05/12/2017 13:04 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9942
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Know it's not coastal but Orange has been under a storm for a while today. Missing us here - a bit west of us.

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#1443907 - 05/12/2017 13:55 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 350
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Dark clouds towards my north building now

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#1443909 - 05/12/2017 14:10 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 901
Loc: Carramar (Fairfield), Sydney, ...
Cell going red near my place and my place is on the edge of it but according to radar under the orange echo. Go you beauty! grin

Edit 2: Should be some very heavy rain at home aa it's now gone red over my area. Shame I'm at work. Arrgh

Hopefully should be some great Falls at home to green things up and provide some soil moisture after after all these light falls recently. grin


Edited by Perfect Storm (05/12/2017 14:17)
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#1443917 - 05/12/2017 15:28 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
Some pretty strong winds around today. 83km/h at Kiama, 82km/h at Albion Park and 69km/h at Bellambi. But yet here it probably has only gusted into the 40's and right now there's just a light breeze!


Edited by Wave Rider (05/12/2017 15:30)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1443918 - 05/12/2017 15:30 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Some pretty strong winds around today. 83km/h at Kiama, 82km/h at Albion Park and 69km/h at Bellambi. But yet here it probably has only gusted into the 40's.


Was just going to mention that - some decent gusts of freezing cold wind now. Seems low has finally fired right up and hammering the South Coast.

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#1443919 - 05/12/2017 15:32 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
It fascinates me that there's no wind here though, we seem to be protected from S/SW winds majorly but we cop the brunt of westerly winds.

And yes, the showers are going a fair way inland through southern areas now.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1443920 - 05/12/2017 15:40 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: DaveM]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 659
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Know it's not coastal but Orange has been under a storm for a while today. Missing us here - a bit west of us.


AP yes (6mm); town no/hardly (1mm). cf Mandurama to the SE 22mm. Since 9am.
(Ref Lake Cargelligo Low)
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NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1443942 - 05/12/2017 17:24 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's getting windy and cooler here. A bit of sun makes a big difference. It got to 25 degrees at OH, up to 28 in Penrith.

This 'event' is still happening but seems to have headed West to the Tablelands and East offshore. There's an impressive-looking chain of storms stretching from the Liverpool ranges to Crookwell, with more storms and showers from Yass to Albury.

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#1443948 - 05/12/2017 18:06 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5423
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Steve777
It's getting windy and cooler here. A bit of sun makes a big difference. It got to 25 degrees at OH, up to 28 in Penrith.

This 'event' is still happening but seems to have headed West to the Tablelands and East offshore. There's an impressive-looking chain of storms stretching from the Liverpool ranges to Crookwell, with more storms and showers from Yass to Albury.



Yep.
And Sydney is in the doughnut hole again.

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#1443951 - 05/12/2017 18:52 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3056
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Strangest radar I have seen for a while, down on south coast still with rain from NE, switches to from east further north, but the major odd one out is the line out on the divide very slowly edging south eastwards. Will it make the coast, doubt it, but I hope so.
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#1443954 - 05/12/2017 19:03 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Homer]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Steve777
It's getting windy and cooler here. A bit of sun makes a big difference. It got to 25 degrees at OH, up to 28 in Penrith.

This 'event' is still happening but seems to have headed West to the Tablelands and East offshore. There's an impressive-looking chain of storms stretching from the Liverpool ranges to Crookwell, with more storms and showers from Yass to Albury.



Yep.
And Sydney is in the doughnut hole again.


Actually, it looks like that rain band from the Blue Mtns is (very) slowly edging towards the Sydney basin.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1443956 - 05/12/2017 19:04 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: ozthunder]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
Originally Posted By: ozthunder
Strangest radar I have seen for a while, down on south coast still with rain from NE, switches to from east further north, but the major odd one out is the line out on the divide very slowly edging south eastwards. Will it make the coast, doubt it, but I hope so.


I'm looking out for a nice sunset! We have late arvo sun shining under the cloud deck above.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

Top
#1443958 - 05/12/2017 19:10 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 901
Loc: Carramar (Fairfield), Sydney, ...
Coming home and seeing water lying around puddles and everything really wet outside even many hours after the downpour is really quite something. Quite easily the wettest it's been in months.

Lots of telltale signs of the water racing along in areas.

I'll never know how much really fell given the movement of the cell and the track it took was largely outside of the gauges reach. This is nice.

Hopefully some more to come with that band to the NW.


Edited by Perfect Storm (05/12/2017 19:12)
_________________________
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#1443960 - 05/12/2017 19:23 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 813
Loc: Glenorie NSW
Its a long line of darkness with hazy top outline. No cb features poking up anywhere from my vantage. Heavy rain is starting to encroach down the mountainside at kurrajong and north

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#1443967 - 05/12/2017 20:04 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 813
Loc: Glenorie NSW
This is like watching someone get in a cold pool slowly. The line keeps putting a toe in the basin and quickly getting out again. Heard a rumble 30mins ago but havent seen or heard anything since

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#1443968 - 05/12/2017 20:10 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1506
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Black as coal west of me here in coming no thunder or lightning but lightning tracker is showing heaps of sparkes.
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#1443970 - 05/12/2017 20:49 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1506
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
It just came down here like someone dumping a huge bucket of water over the house,some strong wind gusts as well,no lightning or thunder, still raining moderate.
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#1443972 - 05/12/2017 21:08 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Longys Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/03/2012
Posts: 5
Loc: Glenmore Park
Light to moderate rain now at Glenmore Park

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#1443973 - 05/12/2017 21:15 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Yes, it looks like that line of showers crossed the Nepean - Hawkesbury, but in a much attenuated state. Let's see if it makes it to the coast.

P.S. Weatherzone - if you're not updating the EC 7 Day model any more, can you please remove it.


Edited by Steve777 (05/12/2017 21:16)
Edit Reason: Fat, clumsy fingers

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#1443975 - 05/12/2017 21:34 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5423
Loc: Dural
Looking at the radar currently, if a fair share of Sydney doesn't get some rain tonight, we are seriously doomed. Honestly, how can that band, that has made so much progress over the past few hours, not deliver?

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#1443976 - 05/12/2017 21:42 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 350
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Wouldn't really say 'doomed' majority of Sydney has had 20mm+ over the past week. Enough to turn everything green again. At least for now.

Although i must say it's been very disappointing with all these overcooked forecasts.

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#1443977 - 05/12/2017 21:49 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Yes, it looks like that line of showers crossed the Nepean - Hawkesbury, but in a much attenuated state. Let's see if it makes it to the coast.

P.S. Weatherzone - if you're not updating the EC 7 Day model any more, can you please remove it.


Hey Steve here is a good link that has EC and features a huge range of layers that puts WZ's to shame- and it's all free!!

https://www.windy.com/?-32.686,145.481,6

(Just copy and paste link into search bar)


Edited by Wave Rider (05/12/2017 21:50)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1443983 - 05/12/2017 22:39 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Homer]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 860
Loc: Cammeray
Originally Posted By: Homer
Looking at the radar currently, if a fair share of Sydney doesn't get some rain tonight, we are seriously doomed. Honestly, how can that band, that has made so much progress over the past few hours, not deliver?


We now have our answer. Died in the arse

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#1443984 - 05/12/2017 22:39 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 534
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
The curse of the Sydney Basin strikes again, all show and no go.

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#1443999 - 06/12/2017 10:01 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 901
Loc: Carramar (Fairfield), Sydney, ...
BoM 9.05 am updated forecast reads as sounding quite promising/interesting for some potential.

Quote:
Sydney area
Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, with thunderstorms possible, most likely in the late morning and early afternoon. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the middle of the day then becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon


Edited by Perfect Storm (06/12/2017 10:01)
_________________________
The pitter patter of rain falling is the sweetest sound you'll ever hear.

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#1444000 - 06/12/2017 10:08 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 350
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Yeah looks like a good day today. Decent instability and no more southerly winds that ruin the storms as they creep into the basin.

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#1444001 - 06/12/2017 10:45 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1506
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Cells developing all around me here car'nt miss out today,after the heavy brief drop last night,another one would be great.
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#1444002 - 06/12/2017 10:47 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1410
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
we had 4mm last night from a decaying shower. Rumbles to my east just now with some cells popping up quickly. Only 23 degrees, but today might be the best chance of something decent. SW shear is a winner here..

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#1444003 - 06/12/2017 10:59 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1506
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Very heavy here last night,GringosRain, brief but man it just fell out of the sky,only 8 mms but if it had kept up a bit longer we would have got 25 mms I recon,but no lightning or thunder,cells popping up everywhere at the moment there is one now between me and Cessnock, I would say Pelton,I can here the rain in the bush not far away
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http://supercell1.camstreams.com/ Ellalong live weathercam,from my front verandah.

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#1444004 - 06/12/2017 11:00 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Great link WR. Thank you.

------------------------

A number of cells are popping up in the Blue Mountains and Wollemi area, some lighning-active. There's a very active cell a little West of Colo Heights (Putty Road).


Edited by Steve777 (06/12/2017 11:02)

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#1444006 - 06/12/2017 11:16 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1506
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
There looks to be a small low spinning just inland from Kiama.


Edited by Stormy3 (06/12/2017 11:16)
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https://www.facebook.com/groups/422596304525834/

http://supercell1.camstreams.com/ Ellalong live weathercam,from my front verandah.

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#1444008 - 06/12/2017 11:40 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4478
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
These are the type of storms that seem to spit in 2 move around my place then reform at someone else's.
_________________________
Jan-24.5mm
YTD-24.5mm
2017 rainfall-1172.1mm
2016 Rainfall-1241.9mm
2015 Rainfall-1568.2mm
2014 Rainfall-1109.1mm


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#1444011 - 06/12/2017 11:59 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 901
Loc: Carramar (Fairfield), Sydney, ...
Sky looking somewhat in even here in the CBD. Not something I see often, can't really feel much wind and no dreaded howling NE either. Though Sydney Harbour is reporting that it's not to too far away frown
_________________________
The pitter patter of rain falling is the sweetest sound you'll ever hear.

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#1444012 - 06/12/2017 12:27 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 901
Loc: Carramar (Fairfield), Sydney, ...
Unable to edit my previous post.

Sea breeze is through here in Darling Harbour now and with that our chances. Light at the moment so hopefully doesn't reduce our chances too much. Hope it stays that way but not counting on it. frown

Lunch break is almost over so heading back to the office so won't be able to tell what's going on outside.


Edited by Perfect Storm (06/12/2017 12:28)
_________________________
The pitter patter of rain falling is the sweetest sound you'll ever hear.

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#1444013 - 06/12/2017 12:28 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 350
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Multiple cells moving towards us from our west now grin. Could see straight through the downdraft for the first cell so i guess they're fairly week. Could hear it rumbling away though so bring it on!

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#1444014 - 06/12/2017 12:35 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9942
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Couple of storms around here - one north & one south.

Some thunder heard in the last 15 minutes or so.

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#1444015 - 06/12/2017 12:55 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 350
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Penrith dropped 10c in 30 mins!

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#1444016 - 06/12/2017 13:03 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1410
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
If there is a gap in the rain or storms anywhere stormy3...we will be in it!! time and time again. Hopefully this big line developing can maintain itself through the hunter. Missed the first lot of cells...they are rumbling away to the north in a nice line. Cessnock and Maitland to get a payday off them....

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#1444017 - 06/12/2017 13:06 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
LOL you want to talk about gaps; check out the Illawarra! poke One HUGE gap. frown

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#1444020 - 06/12/2017 13:15 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1410
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Illawarra has been getting plenty of rain the last couple years. Many of the setups have favoured that area including NE feeds and ECL's. Gets flogged all the time.
2.5 years of gaps now with very few months reaching averages in that time around here. Very different story.

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#1444026 - 06/12/2017 13:45 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1410
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
quiet in here considering what is approaching Sydney...

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#1444027 - 06/12/2017 13:47 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sydney looks like it's about to be ripped a new one!

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#1444029 - 06/12/2017 13:59 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Getting dark here from the West. Light rain has started, along with rumbling and rolling thunder. A cold wind just picked up from the SW.


Edited by Steve777 (06/12/2017 14:00)

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#1444030 - 06/12/2017 14:08 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 534
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
I ran into some pea sized hail around Mt Druitt and Minchinbury just after 1pm. Headed south from there back towards home and only 1mm in the gauge here.

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#1444032 - 06/12/2017 14:13 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8401
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Black core over the top of my mums place in Narrabeen. It's bucketing down big time

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#1444033 - 06/12/2017 14:14 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Rainbow Spirit]
dknever Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/11/2016
Posts: 43
Loc: Liverpool, NSW
Originally Posted By: Rainbow Spirit
I ran into some pea sized hail around Mt Druitt and Minchinbury just after 1pm. Headed south from there back towards home and only 1mm in the gauge here.


Yep, in the city at the moment and it's bucketing.

In Liverpool, Nada.

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#1444034 - 06/12/2017 14:31 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Looks to be over here, at least for the time being. I was in a bit of a gap too, with most action passing to the North over Pymble towards the Northen beaches and South over the City. OH picked up a quick 5mm.

Still hearing distant thunder.

Here's a view of the sky as the storm approached:


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#1444044 - 06/12/2017 16:10 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2751
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Chatswood about 1:30pm


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#1444060 - 06/12/2017 22:03 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5423
Loc: Dural
The fact that the last post today was made at 4.10 pm shows what a lame day it was re storms. Rainfall totals also back this up.
Honestly, I cannot remember the last time I had a really decent summer storm here, with cg's and seriously heavy rain.
Certainly, not at the regularity I remember from years ago.
The Basin these days really is the [censored] pits.

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#1444063 - 06/12/2017 22:42 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8401
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Should've chased the northern beaches, we got hammered over here wink

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#1444066 - 06/12/2017 23:09 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's not been a brilliant storm season so far, although it got off to a decent start in October. I've seen four at or near home, the last one a month ago, none particularly intense or memorable. Today's was the first in a month. I did see a storm at Kurrajong 18 days ago on a 'mini storm chase' about 10 km beyond the Storm Shield*.

Anyway, here's a distant picture of a retreating storm, probably the one over Broken Bay, at about 3:30PM today:



*It more or less follows the opposite bank of the Nepean and Hawkesbury rivers


Edited by Steve777 (06/12/2017 23:09)

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#1444068 - 06/12/2017 23:21 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Classic La Niña = crap storm season.

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#1444069 - 06/12/2017 23:28 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2751
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Rubbish, crap storm seasons are norm now regardless of ENSO. laugh

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#1444071 - 06/12/2017 23:40 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8401
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Been a pretty active season so far. and spread over 5-6 states (some of which get hardly anything anyway), 2 significant events plus an ECL during the most unlikely time of year, but ofcorse people always find something negative to write about. Not to mention the La nina and the season are young laugh

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#1444073 - 06/12/2017 23:53 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
The storm season so far hasn't been too bad here in the Illawarra, considering we often do worse than Sydney.

I certainly would not call the low that we've just had an ECL. It was more a few weak lows along a trough line.


Edited by Wave Rider (06/12/2017 23:54)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1444090 - 07/12/2017 09:00 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9942
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Certainly out here, the last 2 months have been quite active.

The Sydney storm shield is working too well lately.

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#1444094 - 07/12/2017 10:06 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
Sydney's forecast has been upgraded to 32C today. Seems possible given the very weak sea breeze expected for today.


Edited by Wave Rider (07/12/2017 10:08)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1444098 - 07/12/2017 10:51 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: CoastalStorm22]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3056
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Rubbish, crap storm seasons are norm now regardless of ENSO. laugh


I agree, as a person that chases everything available on weekends and after 5pm on work days.

This season is better than last 3, but pales compared to 30 years ago when I started doing chasing.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1444100 - 07/12/2017 11:02 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Nostalgia or actual fact/data?

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#1444101 - 07/12/2017 11:09 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
I would say La Nina's are better than El Nino's for storm seasons. Yes it's true that they are pretty much crap regardless of ENSO but at least with La Nina you don't have constant problems with moisture as you do with El Nino.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

Top
#1444102 - 07/12/2017 11:14 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3786
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Re storm seasons, I had 21 storm days at or near home in 2016/17, which is probably close to average. It started well but there was a bit of a donut hole in January.

As I recall, 2015/16 wasn't too bad. In December 2014, we had a very stormy period in early December, with storms on nearly each of the first 12 days, some severe. That was memorable.

The cool Summer of 2011/12 (la Nina) was OK for storms.

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#1444103 - 07/12/2017 11:14 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The data I've seen previously trends to show Neutral / weak El Nino's are better for strong/severe storms due to colder uppers & better shear profiles - La Nina's = too much moisture, saturated atmosphere, better for rain events or sloppy wet storms.

Recent events are more because of +SAM and very mobile, slow moving upper cold pools. Maybe this part of the world SAM is more a driver for Spring / Autumn events. Be an interesting research / study.

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#1444104 - 07/12/2017 11:35 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
Yeah Steve I was almost going to bring the December 2014 storm event up yesterday. That was very memorable indeed, we got more than 10 storms in 8 days I think.

Yes Kino that would probably make sense. I think this La Nina could be okay though because the IOD is positive so everything is not saturated. I actually have a good feeling about this summer for storms. Early signs have been good like having a few upper lows already and pretty good moisture at the surface.

I reckon +SAM would be better for storms but -SAM would push cold fronts further north so that would bring the prospect of squall line type setups which would be cool.


Edited by Wave Rider (07/12/2017 11:37)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1444113 - 07/12/2017 12:39 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
2014 was an El Nino so that fits what I've previously seen perfectly.

IoD has no effect on summer patterns -
Originally Posted By: BoM
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April.

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#1444123 - 07/12/2017 14:59 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8401
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Oct-Dec 2004 was during a neutral phase and NSW had no shear whatsoever. The basin was so humid, but the moisture only stayed on the surface, nothing above about 1km up. Storms fired up in the far west regularly but never moved east and they were mostly high based. SImilar thing happened in 2006, latter part of summer into autumn - that was also neutral going into a weak el nino.

ENSO doesn't dictate the seasons, or at least not as much as other factors do.

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#1444142 - 07/12/2017 18:38 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sorry, it was an El Niño. And ENSO impacts summer than early spring, a point emphasised all the time by the BoM in their climate outlooks. December 2014 was well into El Niño.

And the conditions you describe are atypical El Niño....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–16_El_Niño_event

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#1444156 - 07/12/2017 19:25 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6541
LRH has written 2004 in his post.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

Top
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