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#1442926 - 30/11/2017 16:27 Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24889
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Great to see some early season excitement, along way off but while she get close enough to WA?

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:07 am WST on Thursday 30 November 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia was located at 7:00 am CXT near 8.8S 104.9E, that is
332 km northwest of Christmas Island and moving east at 26 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Dahlia is expected to pass to the north of Christmas Island
today. While gales are not expected at Christmas Island, squally conditions and
heavy rain are likely later today and overnight into Friday morning. On Friday
Dahlia is forecast to be east of Christmas Island and will turn towards the
southeast, move into Australian waters and slowly intensify. From Sunday
conditions will become less favourable for development and Dahlia is expected
to begin weakening as it continues moving south.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 2:00 pm CXT.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2017 total - 24.8mm (54mm)
December 2017 total - 16.0mm (130mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 848.6mm (1122mm)

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#1442990 - 30/11/2017 21:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome

Yes Mick a few variables still to sorted out to see if it gets anyway near the coast but fingers crossed.

IDW24010
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:42 pm WST on Thursday 30 November 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia (Category 1) was located at 1:00 pm CXT near 9.1S
106.3E, that is 165 km north northeast of Christmas Island and moving east
southeast at 26 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Dahlia is passing to the north of Christmas Island. While
gales are not expected at Christmas Island, squally conditions and heavy rain
are likely this afternoon and overnight into Friday morning. On Friday Dahlia
will move further east away from Christmas Island. It will then turn towards
the southeast, move into Australian waters and intensify through Saturday. From
Sunday conditions will become less favourable for development and Dahlia is
expected to begin weakening as it continues moving south
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442992 - 30/11/2017 22:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome
Definitely got the green light for intensification with shear decreasing and good outflow.

The mid to high level ridge over the Kimberley and Top End going to be the trump card also toughing to the south will drag it towards the south east but all up in the air atm.

Next few days going to be interesting .If it wanders too far south the SSTs will be robbing it of the energy needed to sustain itself before getting close to the W.A coast.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443054 - 01/12/2017 09:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome
IDW24010
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:25 am WST on Friday 1 December 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia (Category 1) was located at 1:00 AM CXT near 9.6S
108.7E, that is 345 km east northeast of Christmas Island and moving east
southeast at 22 kilometres per hour.
During Friday Tropical Cyclone Dahlia will move further east away from
Christmas Island. While gales are not expected at Christmas Island, squally
conditions and heavy rain is possible Friday morning. During late Friday and
Saturday Dahlia will turn towards the south and intensify. From Sunday
conditions will become less favourable for development and Dahlia is expected
to begin weakening as it continues moving south.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443097 - 01/12/2017 13:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome
Still heading south east at 16km/hr into more favourable conditions for intensification.

Will be interesting to see when the brakes will be put on and a more southerly track taken.

IDW24010
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:08 am WST on Friday 1 December 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia (Category 1) was located at 7:00 am CXT near 9.7S
109.4E, that is 415 km east northeast of Christmas Island and moving east
southeast at 16 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Dahlia is moving further away from Christmas Island and no
further heavy rain is expected. The cyclone is forecast to take a more
southerly track on Saturday and intensify but should gradually weaken later in
the weekend. TC Dahlia will remain over open waters and have no direct impact
on the WA mainland.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443133 - 01/12/2017 16:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome

Some models are now suggesting that the upper ridge across the Kimberley will not be as strong as first thought which will allow Dahlia to move closer to the Pilbara coast.

Next 18 hours will see if this is correct and it will depend on what degree as to how far southwards it will swing.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443152 - 01/12/2017 17:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:01 pm WST on Friday 1 December 2017
for the period until midnight WST Monday 4 December 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia was located near 9.9S 109.5E at 11am WST, approximately 422 kilometres east of Christmas Island. It is expected to intensify further as it move generally southeast today before taking a more southward track tonight and Saturday. The system continue moving south and start to weaken Sunday as it moves into an unfavourable environment and may move southeastwards from Monday and continue to weaken.

From Tuesday next week there is a chance it may continue moving southeast towards the NW Cape or Gascoyne coast. At this stage it will likely be a low pressure system in as the system will be an a highly unfavourable environment for tropical cyclone development
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443211 - 02/12/2017 01:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome


TC Dahlia has moved a tad further to the east than expected 24 hours ago.

Should be a Cat 3 by tomorrow morning.


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443212 - 02/12/2017 01:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 211
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hmm yes def slightly to the East than original projections. Wondering how much weaker the Kimberley ridge is than what was expected. Maybe a side swipe of the West Pilbara and a grazing of rain?

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#1443240 - 02/12/2017 09:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14160
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Might get some decent falls out of this system as it dies. Lucky bastards getting the first cyclone for the year.
_________________________
202mm April 2017
Best 156mm 19/5/17
Dec 1mm
2017 Total 855mm
2016 Total 649mm
2015 Total 375mm
2014 Total 1032mm
2013 Total 715mm







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#1443274 - 02/12/2017 12:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome


TC Dahlia may be in a weakening trend today even though it is in a favourable area for intensification.

The reason for this is according the models is because basically its being robbed of a lot of convection by ex TC Cempaka to the south which is redirecting moisture feed from the west and still dragging in good convection around itself.

Also a new low 97S has appeared to the west is also feeding on available moisture and starving TC Dahlia of the inflow energy it needs.

This should sort itself out in the next 24 hours and TC Dahlia should become the dominant system with the decay of Cempaka and moving out of the influence of 97S.

Things could change depending on these two variables and the interactions ,have to see how it all plays out today..
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443277 - 02/12/2017 12:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome

UK model has Dahlia hitting south of Dampier as a Cat 1 but most other models have a more decaying TC long gone before arriving at the coast or arriving as a weak low.

Some models even suggest the effect of the high moving across from the west will drag the moisture from the system as it heads towards the south and speed up the decay of system a long way from the coast.

Interesting times for Dahlia in the next few days...
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443288 - 02/12/2017 13:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome


Can see how the system tracked towards the ESE in the last 12 hours unlike what was predicted which was towards the SSE.
Think this is because of the weaker that expected ridge over the Kimberley.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443361 - 02/12/2017 18:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome


Was still tracking to the East and a bit ENE which is not what was predicted ...interesting but more southerly track should have to happen soon...

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443511 - 03/12/2017 13:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome

TC Dahlia didn't have such a good night and been reduced to just low.
Unfortunately was still fighting for supremacy with a couple of other lows close by and seems to have lost the battle.

Also a bit of dry air wrapping into from the West is not helping it to intensify.

In good wind shear and SSTs but may be game over unless it can gather itself up together during today..

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443591 - 03/12/2017 18:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome
Ex TC Dahlia may intensify tonight and have one last gasp before the post mortem gets organised.

It still has a lot going for it though , e.g. low wind shear and warm SSTs, so fingers crossed for a reappearance as a TC tomorrow.

From Bom:

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dahlia at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 13.8 degrees South, 112.1 degrees East , 790 kilometres east southeast of Christmas Island and 930 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth .
Movement: south at 24 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dahlia lies over open waters well north of WA. The system may re-intensify overnight as it continues moving south, before weakening again during Monday, where it will be well northwest of the WA coast. After weakening Dahlia may drift eastwards or northwestwards and is unlikely to directly impact the WA mainland.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443681 - 04/12/2017 11:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome

EX Tc Dahlia still well West of W.A and going to move southwards and may intensify later on but will have no real effect on the coast except for some light rain between Onslow and Shark Bay.

Winds may increase to 25 knots but not too much more than that along the coast today.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443682 - 04/12/2017 11:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome
From BOM

IDW24010
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:23 am WST on Monday 4 December 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dahlia was located at 2:00 am AWST near 15.2S 112.0E, that
is 780 km north northwest of Exmouth and moving south at 13 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dahlia lies over open waters well north of WA. The system
may re-intensify briefly this morning as it continues moving south, before
weakening again later today, where it will be well northwest of the WA coast.
After weakening ex-TC Dahlia may drift eastwards or northwestwards and is
unlikely to directly impact the WA mainland.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443720 - 04/12/2017 13:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome

Not looking good for ex TC Dahlia today ...

From BOM
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dahlia at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.4 degrees South, 111.3 degrees East , 680 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth .
Movement: south southwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dahlia lies over open waters well north of WA. The system is expected to continue weakening and is unlikely to re-intensify. It is forecast to move south southwest today, become slow moving tonight and then drift generally northeast over the next couple days.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1443725 - 04/12/2017 13:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia - Indian Ocean November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3295
Loc: Broome

Not more tracking from BOM after this one with little chance of intensification.

At least it made it to a Cat 2 but had to battle with other lows along its way which in the end caused its demise. frown

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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