Page 79 of 79 < 1 2 ... 77 78 79
Topic Options
#1440824 - 08/11/2017 18:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6663
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
.....this will test the wholesale power prices ....with the retirement of Hazelwood earlier this year, and Northern (SA) last year.

Top
#1443939 - 05/12/2017 17:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 638
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
The models are virtually unanimous for Friday - differing only in amount and exact placement ... but showing rain 25 - 35 mm across central/east Gippsland and far NE of Vic. Was a surprise to me.

Can someone explain to me what's happening? - Is it an interaction with an upper through and an (incipient) cut-off low SE of Vic?

Top
#1443955 - 05/12/2017 19:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6663
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
When you work it out, then you can re-program the models TB!

This is the current situation:



AccR and GFS presently both prognose < 5mm for us Gippslanders over the next few days. For me, if I saw the above, the first thing I'd do is check the level of Lake Glenmaggie! ....just shows we are all learning/have much to learn! smile

Top
#1444280 - 08/12/2017 16:11 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5870
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Looks like Summer 2017/2018 is finally getting ready to go into high-gear next week across Victoria, with the next heatwave looming ahead of what could become another 'Battle of the Air Masses'. wink

Once the frontal system south of the Bight and nearing Tassie clears out this weekend high pressure takes over next week, allowing conditions to dry out and temperatures to soar to potentially dangerous levels across the Northern Plains and Mallee region, reaching 40C in Mildura by Wednesday. Melbourne's currently going for 31-32C around the middle of next week, but wouldn't rule out the City and metropolitan area edging closer to 35C.

But the next potentially major winter storm from Antarctica appears to be showing up in the synoptic prognosis and corresponding forecast models, and could be on a collision course with the upcoming heatwave over Southern Australia! A powerful cold front and enormous deepening low pressure system are set to swing northbound across the Southern Ocean into the Bight early next week and join forces with a trough which will dip south from the WA Pilbara and tropical Northern Australia.

The preceding high will eventually retreat off the East Coast into the South Pacific, and allow a northerly airflow to build over Eastern Australia. According to the models, as the storm approaches the sheer temperature contrast between the polar blast and the heatwave could generate a very tight pressure gradient, which could translate into possibly damaging winds and a potentially dangerous bushfire risk.

Unsure about rainfall with next week's system, but I'd expect showers and thunderstorms to develop with the cold front and trough on Wednesday/Thursday. Fingers crossed. wink


Edited by aussiestormfreak (08/12/2017 16:12)

Top
#1444495 - 09/12/2017 18:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5870
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Still watching the models and synoptics closely, but there's definite indications that a dangerous heatwave with the risk of bushfires (36C for Melbourne and 43C for Mildura, both on Wednesday) is about to unfold across Victoria next week, with two cold front also appearing. The first front is due on Wednesday/Thursday (probably little more than just a brief cool change with showers and thunderstorms at this stage) and the next one during the following weekend and early the following week.

The second front looks like it could become a potentially major winter storm; could be quite a vigorous cold outbreak and cool, showery westerly surge to follow!

Top
#1444588 - 11/12/2017 12:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2322
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
We are getting La Nia Heatwave until next normal cool change next-week, seem not getting wet season yet by any Tropical lows very disappointment.

Top
#1444600 - 11/12/2017 16:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5870
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Looks like we're only expecting a brief (mainly coastal) respite from the looming heatwave. Still going for 36C here in Melbourne and 43C up in Mildura on Wednesday, ahead of a short-lived cool change with possible showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Could be a dangerous bushfire situation looming! frown

Next weekend and early next week looks interesting. If the latest model output is anything to go by then it could turn into a full-scale Battle of the Air Masses! smile

ACCESS, GFS and the synoptic prognosis all have a powerful cold front and low from Antarctica following not to far behind Thursday's cool change. The cold front and low are likely to enter the Bight or just south of it next weekend, and then link up with a trough from the WA Pilbara.

The latest 7-10 day outlook as this system exploding into a potentially major winter storm, with the low deepening dramatically in response to the razor-sharp temperature difference between the polar air mass from the Southern Ocean and the scorching heatwave over Southern Australia. Next Sunday/Monday could turn into a blustery high-risk bushfire day across Victoria as temperatures soar and the northerly airflow strengthens possibly to gale-force ahead of this powerful storm system!

BSCH has instability with this system on Monday across much of the State, and GFS hints at good rain with storms as well!

Fingers crossed as to whether this storm comes off as predicted - could bring everything from scorching heat and bushfires (not good news) to gales, severe thunderstorms, a soaking rain event, maybe even a cold blast too. Worth keeping an eye on! wink


Edited by aussiestormfreak (11/12/2017 16:28)

Top
#1444602 - 11/12/2017 16:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 638
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes, ASF, certainly -something - brewing for next Monday and thereabouts but, as you say, there's a range of scenarios. To quote you: "Worth keeping an eye on!"

Top
#1444668 - 12/12/2017 18:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6663
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Not much interest in tomorrows 2nd hot pre-Christmas day for 2017, so here's GFS's take on what we can expect from the change following it:



A dry outlook IMO over the next 8-10 days for Vic?.

Top
#1444721 - 13/12/2017 13:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2322
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bush-fires big problem to worry about before Christmas and i am thinking El Nio at moment.

Top
#1444736 - 13/12/2017 15:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1031
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep agree ca! Couple of days ago the
Models had an inch of rain forecast for
Most of Gippsland next Tuesday and
Now it's already back to bugger all!

Think the BoM did state that the current
La Nia was a short and weak system ?

We have had 90 odd mm over the past 2 weeks
But hasn't changed the landscape as much
As I thought it would

Top
#1444746 - 13/12/2017 16:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 271
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Avalon has cracked 40C for central areas today!
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1444928 - 15/12/2017 19:35 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6663
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Christmas Eve/Christmas day look to be cool, cloudy with light SW'ly breeze going by the "way out there GFS prediction".

If someone starts a thread for Christmas speculation, ...then they'll get a "Merry Christmas" wish from me! smile

Top
Page 79 of 79 < 1 2 ... 77 78 79


Who's Online
8 registered (ashestoashes, Perfect Storm, Stormy3, aussiestormfreak, TindraTim, Weather_Viewer, betsuin, 1 invisible), 269 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Jade, STORM CAZ, StormChasinJason, ^Lem^
Forum Stats
29444 Members
32 Forums
23760 Topics
1472326 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image