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#1444066 - 06/12/2017 23:09 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3671
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's not been a brilliant storm season so far, although it got off to a decent start in October. I've seen four at or near home, the last one a month ago, none particularly intense or memorable. Today's was the first in a month. I did see a storm at Kurrajong 18 days ago on a 'mini storm chase' about 10 km beyond the Storm Shield*.

Anyway, here's a distant picture of a retreating storm, probably the one over Broken Bay, at about 3:30PM today:



*It more or less follows the opposite bank of the Nepean and Hawkesbury rivers


Edited by Steve777 (06/12/2017 23:09)

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#1444068 - 06/12/2017 23:21 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Classic La Niña = crap storm season.

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#1444069 - 06/12/2017 23:28 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2725
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Rubbish, crap storm seasons are norm now regardless of ENSO. laugh

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#1444071 - 06/12/2017 23:40 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8351
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Been a pretty active season so far. and spread over 5-6 states (some of which get hardly anything anyway), 2 significant events plus an ECL during the most unlikely time of year, but ofcorse people always find something negative to write about. Not to mention the La nina and the season are young laugh

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#1444073 - 06/12/2017 23:53 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
The storm season so far hasn't been too bad here in the Illawarra, considering we often do worse than Sydney.

I certainly would not call the low that we've just had an ECL. It was more a few weak lows along a trough line.


Edited by Wave Rider (06/12/2017 23:54)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1444090 - 07/12/2017 09:00 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9881
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Certainly out here, the last 2 months have been quite active.

The Sydney storm shield is working too well lately.

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#1444094 - 07/12/2017 10:06 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
Sydney's forecast has been upgraded to 32C today. Seems possible given the very weak sea breeze expected for today.


Edited by Wave Rider (07/12/2017 10:08)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1444098 - 07/12/2017 10:51 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: CoastalStorm22]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3044
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Rubbish, crap storm seasons are norm now regardless of ENSO. laugh


I agree, as a person that chases everything available on weekends and after 5pm on work days.

This season is better than last 3, but pales compared to 30 years ago when I started doing chasing.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1444100 - 07/12/2017 11:02 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Nostalgia or actual fact/data?

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#1444101 - 07/12/2017 11:09 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
I would say La Nina's are better than El Nino's for storm seasons. Yes it's true that they are pretty much crap regardless of ENSO but at least with La Nina you don't have constant problems with moisture as you do with El Nino.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1444102 - 07/12/2017 11:14 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3671
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Re storm seasons, I had 21 storm days at or near home in 2016/17, which is probably close to average. It started well but there was a bit of a donut hole in January.

As I recall, 2015/16 wasn't too bad. In December 2014, we had a very stormy period in early December, with storms on nearly each of the first 12 days, some severe. That was memorable.

The cool Summer of 2011/12 (la Nina) was OK for storms.

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#1444103 - 07/12/2017 11:14 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The data I've seen previously trends to show Neutral / weak El Nino's are better for strong/severe storms due to colder uppers & better shear profiles - La Nina's = too much moisture, saturated atmosphere, better for rain events or sloppy wet storms.

Recent events are more because of +SAM and very mobile, slow moving upper cold pools. Maybe this part of the world SAM is more a driver for Spring / Autumn events. Be an interesting research / study.

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#1444104 - 07/12/2017 11:35 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
Yeah Steve I was almost going to bring the December 2014 storm event up yesterday. That was very memorable indeed, we got more than 10 storms in 8 days I think.

Yes Kino that would probably make sense. I think this La Nina could be okay though because the IOD is positive so everything is not saturated. I actually have a good feeling about this summer for storms. Early signs have been good like having a few upper lows already and pretty good moisture at the surface.

I reckon +SAM would be better for storms but -SAM would push cold fronts further north so that would bring the prospect of squall line type setups which would be cool.


Edited by Wave Rider (07/12/2017 11:37)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1444113 - 07/12/2017 12:39 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
2014 was an El Nino so that fits what I've previously seen perfectly.

IoD has no effect on summer patterns -
Originally Posted By: BoM
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April.

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#1444123 - 07/12/2017 14:59 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8351
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Oct-Dec 2004 was during a neutral phase and NSW had no shear whatsoever. The basin was so humid, but the moisture only stayed on the surface, nothing above about 1km up. Storms fired up in the far west regularly but never moved east and they were mostly high based. SImilar thing happened in 2006, latter part of summer into autumn - that was also neutral going into a weak el nino.

ENSO doesn't dictate the seasons, or at least not as much as other factors do.

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#1444142 - 07/12/2017 18:38 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sorry, it was an El Niño. And ENSO impacts summer than early spring, a point emphasised all the time by the BoM in their climate outlooks. December 2014 was well into El Niño.

And the conditions you describe are atypical El Niño....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–16_El_Niño_event

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#1444156 - 07/12/2017 19:25 Re: Coastal NSW - ECL 4/12 - 7/12/2017; strong winds, torrential rain and flooding [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
LRH has written 2004 in his post.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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