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#1442476 - 27/11/2017 17:33 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I think there's a system coming by the end of month, affecting the E to SE regions of the country. Question of magnitude of falls and how much the of current pattern/s will be disrupted. Dewpoints look to spike substantially, and absolute humidity with them.
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#1442499 - 27/11/2017 20:53 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 153
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Agree 50 - 100mm in South Australia is a good dose of rain with runoff likely.
I have seen rain events in Queensland where more than 150mm absorbed and not showing signs of waterway flow at gauges... Albeit that does not happen often. And suchlike rain can bring runoff at the paddock scale that does reach river flows.
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#1442523 - 27/11/2017 22:51 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Was originally thinking 50-80 mm, SA/VIC/NSW/SE QLD, with significant run-off grading from remote chance to moderate, west-to-east.

Friday Max/Min, 18/13. (Bureau).

Surface Pressure: ~ 1002 hPa
Precipitable-Water: ~ 18 mm
Relative Humidity: ~ 70%
Rain: ~ 63 mm
Dewpoint: 13 C.


Edited by Seira (27/11/2017 23:01)
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#1442525 - 27/11/2017 23:04 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 153
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Apologies I meant 50 to 100 mm in last event. Haven't looked at upcoming SA potential event, but if expected 50 to 80mm expected runoff would be a good chance
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#1442529 - 27/11/2017 23:14 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 153
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
When I looked at 23 nov 9am totals a few days ago for central to south SA I thought I saw 25 to 50, with one gauge over 50.
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#1442530 - 27/11/2017 23:19 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Flowin
When I looked at 23 nov 9am totals a few days ago for central to south SA I thought I saw 25 to 50, with one gauge over 50.

Rain gauges, yes, maybe two sites in that range (23rd Nov), streamflow gauges (i.e. recorded run-off) I don't know.


Edited by Seira (27/11/2017 23:24)
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#1442531 - 27/11/2017 23:41 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Post #1442523 temperatures refers to Adelaide/Hills only.


Edited by Seira (27/11/2017 23:43)
Edit Reason: Last Edit.
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#1442794 - 29/11/2017 21:59 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
The system currently/beginning to form across SE Australia is likely to shift the synoptic pattern -- temperatures falling, and remaining noticeably low.
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#1442948 - 30/11/2017 18:15 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I'm going to wait for tributaries to start responding to rain for the approaching system, and draw conclusions from observations 30th of November to 2nd of December 2017 smile .
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#1443156 - 01/12/2017 17:58 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Seira
I'm going to wait for tributaries to start responding to rain for the approaching system, and draw conclusions from observations 30th of November to 2nd of December 2017 smile .

Ok, going to revise that.

NE VIC/SE NSW, especially west of the Ranges, I think is at a serious risk of flooding over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Going by ACCESS-R forecast dewpoints for the past 2 days for Saturday the 2nd of December, into the 3rd. For affected areas west of the Great Dividing Range, dewpoints are about 18-22 deg C. This implies a much narrower diurnal range – about 23/21, or higher, max/min. Estimated falls up to and/or exceeding 200 mm in that time frame. The air pressure likely 990-1000 hPa MSL adjusted. The upper trough is aligned SW-NE and anchored, as an offshoot, to the NE edge of the high in the Bight, plus to the main Deep SW trough system.

Disclaimer: Follow Bureau Warnings. Follow this precis at own risk.


Edited by Seira (01/12/2017 18:00)
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#1443776 - 04/12/2017 17:21 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
System made it to about SE QLD's latitude Flowin smile . Even looks like it might have influenced latitudes as far north as Bowen.
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#1443832 - 04/12/2017 22:54 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 153
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Yes Seira, the event of the last few days did have a wide influence from the south up to us in the sub tropical areas and further north. The initial rain front for us in SEQ on Saturday going into Sunday was uneventful but today's consolidation produced some good falls and streamflow. Reached minor flood levels at a few gauges.
For some periods it did have "atmospheric river like" look in terms of water vapour feed generally north to south and today south east across to NZ.🙃

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#1444179 - 07/12/2017 21:07 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Yes Seira, the event of the last few days did have a wide influence from the south up to us in the sub tropical areas and further north. The initial rain front for us in SEQ on Saturday going into Sunday was uneventful but today's consolidation produced some good falls and streamflow. Reached minor flood levels at a few gauges.
For some periods it did have "atmospheric river like" look in terms of water vapour feed generally north to south and today south east across to NZ.🙃

Written the same day:

I see what you mean about minor flood level being reached. Fisherman’s Pocket TM fluctuated and is now rising, based on the readings (10.50 pm SA time), while Nagigan Road TM reached moderate flood level at about 6.30 pm local time, yesterday (3rd). Both near Gympie QLD.

Bureau are indicating a further 20 to 60 mm possible near Gympie, chance of any being 90% [8.20 pm AEST], maybe with a morning thunderstorm.

The streamflow response from the 30th to the 2nd/3rd was (and to an extent still is) having an effect at Seven Creeks at Kialla West, near Shepparton VIC. Still at moderate level.

…and yes, atmospheric rivers are interesting smile in the role they play in IWVT and where (in liquid form) the water-vapour ends up (on the ground).

The following day: Further falls recorded (50-150 mm range), near Gympie.


Edited by Seira (07/12/2017 21:08)
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