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#1443925 - 05/12/2017 16:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18058
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
The question is now what effect will it have have on our weather, will it be a fizzer or will it continue to build into 2018?


Locally it is already too late to call it a fizzer.
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#1443928 - 05/12/2017 16:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1644
Loc: Kingaroy
That's true. Going by GFS, La Nina has some more building to do yet I think.

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#1443936 - 05/12/2017 16:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 497
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Not much rain forecast anywhere for next 2 weeks.

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#1443938 - 05/12/2017 17:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2148
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
That is alright, we just had 100mm+ here. Needs to dry out a bit first.

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#1443949 - 05/12/2017 18:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 497
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
I'll take note of that.

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#1443950 - 05/12/2017 18:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24889
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Havent even had a thunderstorm in Townsville this season yet. Above average October, less than half November average, and so far just a couple of showers in December with atleast ten days of nothing now. And still in drought.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2017 total - 24.8mm (54mm)
December 2017 total - 16.0mm (130mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 848.6mm (1122mm)

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#1443957 - 05/12/2017 19:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2148
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Well all I will say is this is the best Spring we have had in many years. We have not just had rain, but the all important follow up rain.

I do feel for those who have missed out as I know how distraught the feeling is. Been down that road many times.

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#1444083 - 07/12/2017 07:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12639
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Last 30 days:

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#1444165 - 07/12/2017 20:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1644
Loc: Kingaroy
Some of the current CFS runs have Nino 3.4 going down to -1.5 or lower by April next year, it's certainly possible because there is a lot of cold water down there.

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#1444168 - 07/12/2017 20:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looks like the western warm pool is warming while the cold pool in the east is continuing to cool.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDYOC007.gif

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#1444180 - 07/12/2017 21:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I'm calling the current ENSO situation, in my view, cool-neutral!
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#1444186 - 07/12/2017 22:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1644
Loc: Kingaroy
It's a classic La Nina signal.

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#1444219 - 08/12/2017 11:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8351
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Indeed, like an unstoppable freight train in the pacific. Also worthy of note are the high SST's still present in the tasman, between the SE and NZ. Some of the most widespread I've ever seen.

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#1444241 - 08/12/2017 13:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1644
Loc: Kingaroy
Ants are moving their nests to high ground and are moving to places where they have never been before, even before the 2011 floods.

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#1444251 - 08/12/2017 13:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
MGD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 5
Loc: Heathfield SA
Looking for more favourable IOD to get favourable rains in my area ie Adelaide poke

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#1444340 - 08/12/2017 21:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: MGD]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: MGD
Looking for more favourable IOD to get favourable rains in my area ie Adelaide poke

I'd think we'd need a -IOD, or close to, for increased rains here in the SA smile .
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Wood for the trees.

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#1444356 - 08/12/2017 22:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Long Road Home]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1917
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Indeed, like an unstoppable freight train in the pacific. Also worthy of note are the high SST's still present in the tasman, between the SE and NZ. Some of the most widespread I've ever seen.


Unless I'm mistaken they have also been the warmest anomalies on the planet for quite some time.

Pretty useless down there though, need them to shift up to NW and NE of Aus.


Edited by Nature's Fury (08/12/2017 22:17)

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#1444397 - 09/12/2017 10:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: MGD
Looking for more favourable IOD to get favourable rains in my area ie Adelaide poke

I'd think we'd need a -IOD, or close to, for increased rains here in the SA smile .


Youíll have to wait til May then. Besides isnít Adelaide a Mediterranean climate? Wet cold winters and dry hot summers?

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#1444420 - 09/12/2017 12:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: MGD
Looking for more favourable IOD to get favourable rains in my area ie Adelaide poke

I'd think we'd need a -IOD, or close to, for increased rains here in the SA smile .


Youíll have to wait til May then. Besides isnít Adelaide a Mediterranean climate? Wet cold winters and dry hot summers?

Or we could wait, and wait, and wait for another 1-2 day deluge of at least 300 mm in the next 1-2 months...however Adelaide may not cope with 300 mm in that timeframe, and I don't think I'd want it to try wink .

Adelaide is technically Mediterranean, but there are variations, like anywhere.
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Wood for the trees.

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#1444432 - 09/12/2017 14:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 497
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Seasonal outlooks including EC. Here

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