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#1444583 - 11/12/2017 10:20 NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1185
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
The first real heatwave of the season to commence tomorrow, with the far west of the state affected initially, before that airmass is gradually directed towards the central east regions.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/mid-week-heat-for-the-southeast/527229

We should see our first 40 degree days of the season in the Hunter and western Sydney, after an unusual lack of any very hot days during November. (hottest day only 32.2C here or 90F)
Thursday looking like the peak, before a brief southerly and another very hot weekend.
The coast should be spared of any days >35C.
This heat could continue longer as well, as Sunday the heat starts to intensify again in the usual suspect hotspots in the far west.


Edited by Seabreeze (14/12/2017 22:18)
Edit Reason: updated title

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#1444584 - 11/12/2017 10:32 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
ozthunder Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3183
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
I am hoping that the seabreeze front on Friday will kick off a few thunderstorms, probably high based stuff, but may provide lightning and microbursts. CAPPING will be the greatest obstacle. As the weekend progresses the more humid E/NE winds move further inland and storms may become more widespread.
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#1444634 - 12/12/2017 08:37 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4365
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Warm with clear skies, cicadas and little or no wind.

Access is showing a hot weather pattern for our part of the world lasting until the end of its run, interrupted of the coast by weak Southerly changes. It shows an inland trough / low developing early next week with widespread rain and probably storms.

GFS doesn't have the trough and low for early next week, but the weekend looks a bit unstable / troughy. The second week of GFS looks warm and unsettled. NAEFS shows temps over virtually all of Australia for next week as 'near normal': NAEFS. Not quite sure what to make of that.

GFS 850 temps over Sydney on Thursday 14th up to 25. The Westerly component looks reasonably strong so the sea breeze might not be as strong and heat might reach the coast. Access looks similar for Thursday.

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#1444635 - 12/12/2017 08:48 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6957
Yeah there doesn't seem to be much end to this hot weather in the near future. It's not that often we get a warm December like this, mostly in my experience it can be cool and miserable and mainly devoid of hot days.

Cool November has abruptly turned to a hot December. Canberra is forecasted to be above 30C all week which is quite hot.

Originally Posted By: Steve777
Warm with clear skies, cicadas and little or no wind.


Full cloud cover and fog on top of the escarpment here. We must've got the edge of that weak southerly that was moving up the coast yesterday since the low cloud cover also rolled in about 7pm yesterday. But it's the kind of stuff that will burn off rapidly once conditions warm up.
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#1444636 - 12/12/2017 09:05 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4365
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Just after my last post a bit of scattered cloud moved in, fluffy white clouds with dark bases. The sea breeze is just getting started, so that will limit warming near the coast today.

I note that sea temps off the coast have warmed to about 21 near Sydney, although days on end of coastal NE'ers might send it tumbling again.

======

December can be a bit of a mixed bag. December 2005 was classic 'Summer', with 10 30+ days at OH (average 3) and equal hottest on max record (28.6, 3 above). Dry sunny day followed dry sunny day, like a classic Christmas holiday of fond memory. December last year was very warm (max 2.5 above average at OH, 7 30+ days) but cloudier. On the other hand, Decembers 1999 and 2011 were shockers.

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#1444637 - 12/12/2017 09:10 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Unfortunately day after day of heat gets the house temp up - no cooler nights in between.

Gunna be a hot week or more.

Still it is Summer and that's what happens I suppose smile

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#1444639 - 12/12/2017 10:03 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1185
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777

December can be a bit of a mixed bag. December 2005 was classic 'Summer', with 10 30+ days at OH (average 3) and equal hottest on max record (28.6, 3 above). Dry sunny day followed dry sunny day, like a classic Christmas holiday of fond memory. December last year was very warm (max 2.5 above average at OH, 7 30+ days) but cloudier. On the other hand, Decembers 1999 and 2011 were shockers.


Yeah December can be very variable as the 1st month of summer, almost November-like sometimes for variability.
I can recall some very cool Decembers in the mid 90s, '94-'95. (was living in Camden back then). 1995 it was cold right up until Xmas. 1994 had 1 40 degree day though (up to 44C in far western Sydney -some records still stand), from memory it was many years later that another 40 degree day occurred in December.
December 1999 was cool, and that summer (99-00) was cool right up until February when it turned around. (24 out of 29 days above average).
Recent years since after 2011 have been fairly close to average, with no real standouts.

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#1444656 - 12/12/2017 15:04 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
davidg Offline
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Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2244
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Its gonna get hot out this way, going for 41c on Thursday but given the 850hPa temps are potentially touching 26c I wouldn't be surprised if that ends up more like 42-43. AWS record for Penrith is 42.3 so it could give that a bit of a shake.



Saturday will probably crack 40c and Monday,Tuesday next week are going to get toasty as well looking at the forecast models. We could well end up with 3 40c days in the space of less than a week out this way which will come as a bit of a shock to the system!

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#1444657 - 12/12/2017 15:28 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2609
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
After weeks of cool weather , I'm looking forward to a few days of warmth.

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#1444660 - 12/12/2017 16:56 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4365
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I see that the EC-7 day model is no longer shown on this site, but the EC-10D model has been expanded to show all of Australia.

===

Blue skies and sea gales here, probably around 26.

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#1444665 - 12/12/2017 18:48 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
rain gauge Offline
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Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4534
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
I'm sure many people out Penrith way aren't looking forward to this dreadful heat
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Oct Rain. 75.3
YTD-810..1 mm
2017 rainfall-1172.1mm





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#1444670 - 12/12/2017 19:19 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: rain gauge]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6957
Originally Posted By: rain gauge
I'm sure many people out Penrith way aren't looking forward to this dreadful heat


Yes but it gets hot every summer in Penrith, often for days on end. Hot weather is just part of life out there.

In terms of that forecast that davidg has posted up, I would say Thursday is looking like one of the more comfortable days, as it will be very low humidity. Saturday looks like the worst with 39C and dew points of 20C, yuckkk.

We have had a good run of pretty average temperatures, so a run of well above average temps was always going to occur. It's just like at some point there will be a week of miserable weather with cool southerly winds.


Edited by Wave Rider (12/12/2017 19:21)
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#1444672 - 12/12/2017 19:27 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Long Road Home Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8561
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Just a stock standard average spike for this time of year which the media will blow out of proportion just like they do with every storm day laugh

In all seriousness, it's actually a pretty late onset of heat considering we're 9 days from the summer solstice. In recent years we'd already see a handful of 37+ days in the west.

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#1444674 - 12/12/2017 19:30 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
rain gauge Offline
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Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4534
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
Trust me you never get used to the heat out Penrith way. Many people don't have aircon or cant afford to run it. Heat isn't all fun and games for many people


Edited by rain gauge (12/12/2017 19:31)
_________________________
Oct Rain. 75.3
YTD-810..1 mm
2017 rainfall-1172.1mm





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#1444675 - 12/12/2017 19:43 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6957
Exactly LRH, people who don't like the hot weather have been lucky. I would not like high 30's and 40's every day, but I do enjoy periodic hot weather.

Like Kino I'm looking forward to it, should hopefully be our warmest day since October 30th. And it will be dry heat anyway.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1444686 - 12/12/2017 22:09 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: rain gauge]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5954
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: rain gauge
Trust me you never get used to the heat out Penrith way. Many people don't have aircon or cant afford to run it. Heat isn't all fun and games for many people


Exactly.
I actually have air-con but cannot afford to run it much such are the outrageous prices of electricity these days. This weather is putrid, both for the comfort value and the wallet.

At the same time, I'm more than happy to put up with this [censored] and let the heat lovers have their moments of glory during the hottest time of the year. Nothing I can do to change it, so, I have learnt over decades to just deal with it.

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#1444693 - 12/12/2017 23:28 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6957
Our air con is out of order so the mild weather has been a bit of a blessing. But, I'm looking forward to it because it's a change from the incessant NE winds and lack of heat we had in November.

Lucky the nights have been nice and cool (here at least), like tonight we have all the windows open getting rid of the day's heat. smile


Edited by Wave Rider (12/12/2017 23:29)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1444695 - 13/12/2017 05:49 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: Long Road Home]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1185
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Just a stock standard average spike for this time of year which the media will blow out of proportion just like they do with every storm day laugh

In all seriousness, it's actually a pretty late onset of heat considering we're 9 days from the summer solstice. In recent years we'd already see a handful of 37+ days in the west.


Yeah the term "heatwave" is a relative one, and it is late this year to finally get temps over 35C.
If I saw this week of temps coming up in late January, it would probably just be classed as an above average week. (average max of 36C for 1 week here, 37C for places like Penrith and Singleton.) It would probably just be a stock standard top 14% of 1 weeks percentile.
The fact that it has come from nowhere, and may continue, makes it more newsworthy.

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#1444699 - 13/12/2017 08:09 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2244
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
I've lived in the Lower BM's my whole life and you don't really get used to the heat, you just learn to tolerate it.

It doesn't matter who you are, a 41c day is going to pretty much be a write off for any outdoor activities after about 11am. I like doing outdoors stuff so for me it sucks but thems the breaks. Apart from ridic hot weather for a couple of months the rest of the year is actually very pleasant so swings and round abouts. Would be nice if we could get some decent rain though.

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#1444701 - 13/12/2017 09:23 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes I detest the hot weather but like Homer & DG have said we learn to tolerate it as best we can.

Aircon too expensive to run. I cope better when a day is hot but the nights wreck me.

Hence my Summer countdown is on - my first sign of getting through summer (time wise) is the Solstice - only about a week away - tick (nearly) then it's Chrissy then it's New Year so that means only 2 months of Summer left by the time Christmas/New Year period is done smile

Obviously though although the heat usually ramps up in Jan/Feb but once it is January I only have 59 days of technical summer to go grin

Long termers here know what I'm like grin

I FEEL that we will have another fairly wet period or two in Jan and/or Feb - can't give reasons - just a gut feel.

Anyhow it is Summer and we will have heat - it's the way it is. smile

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