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#1445082 - 18/12/2017 12:42 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: Wave Rider]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1282
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
I would go about 44-45C for tomorrow in Penrith given that less cloud is now predicted on GFS.


>43.9C, ie 44.0C or above, would be a record in the Sydney Basin for December. (going on what records I can see).
Will be interesting to see if it gets there.
Locally we are going for 41-42C tomorrow. (heat will peak the next day)


Edited by DerekHV (18/12/2017 12:45)

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#1445085 - 18/12/2017 12:51 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1282
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Looks like this summer heatwave and thread title can definitely be extended to Xmas Eve now.
Western Sydney and the Hunter going for 40C+ again by then.

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#1445086 - 18/12/2017 13:01 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Hey OZ T - yes white out indeed and then coping with splashes (walls of water) from passing vehicles even with them going quite slowly.

We must have been not far away from you in time/distance at some point smile

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#1445087 - 18/12/2017 13:24 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2202
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Smithville up to 45.4 just before 1PM. Not much cloud out there so should go higher.
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#1445093 - 18/12/2017 14:06 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 701
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
A small thunderhead has appeared at Oakdale, will it make it to us?

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#1445095 - 18/12/2017 14:32 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2984
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
The cells are really struggling to get properly going, must be some strong capping.
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#1445096 - 18/12/2017 14:34 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10186
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Nothing very interesting out here yet.

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#1445097 - 18/12/2017 14:44 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Some rumbles over the escarpment here. Nothing massive or major as yet.

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#1445100 - 18/12/2017 15:59 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: Max744]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Max744
Morning all, a really good MCS through here at Cooks Gap last night. It rained, thundered and lightninged from around 7pm until after midninght. Made it nice and cool for sleeping smile


Have a theory on why the area had a MCS. It required SE winds and a pool of unrealised CAPE over the southern tablelands.

The CAPPING over southern tablelands above around 700mb was just too strong for storms there. The surface CAPE was actually juicy and was advected by surface winds (from SE) into Central Tablelands where the Capping was weaker, so wave after wave of storms just fired off the central Tablelands and slopes and drifted north.

The whole setup would not have worked with NE winds, or if the Southern Tablelands CAP broke.
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http://ozthunder.com

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#1445102 - 18/12/2017 16:07 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There's a severe thunderstorm warning covering the Eastern part of the Central Tabkelands, the Illawarra apart from a coastal strip, Sydney's outer West and parts of the Hunter: for HEAVY RAINFALL, DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES.

Storms have crossed into the Sydney basin South of Penrith.

------

Much cooler than expected. The cloud has stuck around all day with some sunny breaks. After getting near 28 mid morning, OH dropped back to 25 and has stayed there all day. Penrith reached 36.

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#1445103 - 18/12/2017 16:10 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Northwesterly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 79
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
Quite a bit of thunder here in Stanhope Gardens from the Penrith cell. It is moving east - northeast so may have a chance of getting it here.

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#1445104 - 18/12/2017 16:21 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Northwesterly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 79
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
Again skirted around us, light to moderate rain and a bit of thunder.

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#1445105 - 18/12/2017 16:22 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 701
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Well that was all show and no go, lots of rumbles and a few strikes, about 0.5mm of 'rain' and it was gone as fast as it came.

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#1445107 - 18/12/2017 16:34 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Can hear faint rumbles now. They seem to be nearby, but the nearest cell on the radar is now approaching Parramatta.

The Western sky looks dark, although there's no structure visible. After some sun just now, it's overcast overhead.

EDIT: The BOM have are now forecastin 44 and 42 for Penrith, with 31 and 38 for OH. The 44 would be a new December record for Penrith and possibly the Sydney Basin (if > 39).

Seems to be a cell trying to develop nearby, with louder rumbles.


Edited by Steve777 (18/12/2017 16:38)

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#1445108 - 18/12/2017 16:40 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2202
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Smithville - 46.8 not long ago. Very impressive.
Tibooburra the runner up thus far on 45.9.

44 the forecast in Sydney's west tomorrow.
Some call that forecast brave as it will be a record if it comes off. So the computer models must have intestinal fortitude.
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#1445110 - 18/12/2017 16:51 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2984
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Noisy little storm moving through Chatswood now. grin
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My WX Stations

Lane Cove PWS - Dee Why PWS

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#1445114 - 18/12/2017 17:01 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
That storm seemed to pass just to by North. Lots of rumbles, but just a couple of minutes of light rain, probably not enough to register.

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#1445116 - 18/12/2017 17:11 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2984
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
I reckon about 3-5mm in that lot here in Chatswood.
_________________________
My WX Stations

Lane Cove PWS - Dee Why PWS

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#1445117 - 18/12/2017 17:24 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Same here Steve.
There have been constant rumbles here for about 90 minutes - some loud, some not so, but yes, almost constant.
Missed most of the rain, though it's a bit heavier now. Temp has dropped to 26.4 but it's very muggy.

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#1445118 - 18/12/2017 17:31 Re: NSW - First summer heatwave of 2017, accompanied by thunderstorm activity 12/12/17 - 20/12/17 [Re: DerekHV]
Northwesterly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 79
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
The second storm was much better, it had visable structure, and the red on the radar image passed right over us. We had about three burst of heavy rain, no hail. 4.5mm in the gauge. Lightning and thunder was not very close.

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