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#1444435 - 09/12/2017 14:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 109
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
Ants are moving their nests to high ground and are moving to places where they have never been before, even before the 2011 floods.

Look to the ants i say!

Well look at the glorious blueage on the animation.

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#1444439 - 09/12/2017 15:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18615
Loc: The Beach.
Interesting Spring result despite the Indian Ocean not playing ball.

Wettest Spring on record locally .

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-02/record-spring-rain-after-big-dry-in-se-qld/9217734

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#1444445 - 09/12/2017 15:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 545
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Far more blue on that map than red. Wet winter for some.

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#1444522 - 09/12/2017 20:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 545
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Meant to say wet Spring for some.

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#1444562 - 10/12/2017 12:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1823
Loc: Kingaroy
CFS has a wet signal lasting into autumn now.

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#1444578 - 11/12/2017 08:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1823
Loc: Kingaroy
Looks like the trades are going to ease a little according to GFS, but then that could be due to the MJO which is going to grind according to the current forecast to a halt in the western Pacific. CFS is all over the place at the moment, another thing to note is that the monsoon is still in the northern hemisphere which will delay the onset of the wet season up north.

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#1444617 - 11/12/2017 22:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
The effect of the persistent easterlies have really left their mark on the SST in the Tasman. Looks like a severe marine heatwave.

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#1444620 - 11/12/2017 22:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
The Tasman sea is almost the equivalent of the South Coral sea at the moment
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#1444631 - 12/12/2017 07:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1637
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
The Tasman sea is almost the equivalent of the South Coral sea at the moment

And yet the never-ending persistent ridge of High pressure remains, and so does the drought over this area. No sign of La nina here yet. Surely warm water like that would help shift the pressure systems. Once upon a time troughs commonly dipped down the coast almost exactly the opposite of this stupid ridge that races up the coast to QLD every time a front passes. This ridging has happened across all seasons for seemingly years now. Where are the highs with straight long fetch easterlies onto the coast of NSW? They just dont happen because this triangle shaped ridge all the way to QLD is always replacing the previous HPS (the same ridge that steers all the cyclones away SE). Where did all he coastal storms go in Eastern NSW? I loathe this stupid pattern. I want whatever climate driver that put it there to switch and wipe it out for good.

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#1444632 - 12/12/2017 08:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3358
Loc: Buderim
The warm kelvin wave is now at 120W and approaching the eastern edge of the Pacific, which is when they have the strongest warming impact on the surface.



Strongest westerly wind burst so far, and forecasts suggest it getting stronger. Peak westerly anomalies are nearly twice as strong as the peak easterly anomalies at the moment, although over a smaller area. The strength of the current WWB is comparable to the initial WWBs for both the 1997 and 2015 el ninos, although in both cases they were followed up quickly by stronger WWBs.



La Nina conditions were called by BOM for nino 3 being below -0.8, and it has risen again to be -0.81, the third week below -0.8. Short term with the Kelvin wave and the strong WWB it seems further warming is likely. Longer term CFS is the only model showing any further cooling in the forecast with other models holding current intensity or warming from the start of next year.

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#1444640 - 12/12/2017 10:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18615
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: GringosRain

And yet the never-ending persistent ridge of High pressure remains, and so does the drought over this area. No sign of La nina here yet. Surely warm water like that would help shift the pressure systems. Once upon a time troughs commonly dipped down the coast almost exactly the opposite of this stupid ridge that races up the coast to QLD every time a front passes. This ridging has happened across all seasons for seemingly years now. Where are the highs with straight long fetch easterlies onto the coast of NSW? They just dont happen because this triangle shaped ridge all the way to QLD is always replacing the previous HPS (the same ridge that steers all the cyclones away SE). Where did all he coastal storms go in Eastern NSW? I loathe this stupid pattern. I want whatever climate driver that put it there to switch and wipe it out for good.



Yes, it is a pain in the arse for many areas. The "quidge" it is sometimes called in Qld (Queensland ridge) .
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1444641 - 12/12/2017 10:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
The Indian is looking ugly, it just does not want to warm up. This is as bad as its been since August/September.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=ssta


Edited by _Johnno_ (12/12/2017 10:49)
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#1444643 - 12/12/2017 10:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18615
Loc: The Beach.
That depends on who's map you use Johnno.

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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1444644 - 12/12/2017 10:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Can Mt Agung eruption locally impact the ssts off Indonesia? Cos none of the models have picked up on this sudden cooling again in this area by now ALL climate models showed warmer than normal ssts through this area by December.
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#1444645 - 12/12/2017 10:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
That depends on who's map you use Johnno.



Looking more and more like a double-dip La Nina to me - despite the straw clutching of some...

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#1444646 - 12/12/2017 10:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Yeah Unisy has it too CF but sort of in between WZ and your map so I'm not sure what to believe at the moment.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
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#1444647 - 12/12/2017 10:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That UNISYS map looks nothing like the NOAA one? There are no warm patches in the eastern South Pacific?

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#1444648 - 12/12/2017 11:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
POAMA and CFS both picked the cooling for later this yr earlier this yr than any other model and now both models are looking very cool well into 2018 so it wouldn't surprise me the double dip or even triple dip if you include 2016.

Latest UK into May still has temps around -0.7c/-0.8c which updated yesterday. EC on the other hand which was the last model to back away from the warming for later this year has temps back to neutral near 0 by May.. Tends to over estimate warming IMO.
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#1444649 - 12/12/2017 11:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18615
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Kino
That UNISYS map looks nothing like the NOAA one? There are no warm patches in the eastern South Pacific?


My personal view is that the unysis map is not worth a pinch anymore. It used to be my go to until they changed sources a few years back. It is virtually impossible to have so little neutral temps outside of Antarctica . Prior to the change the neutral range made up around 15-20% of the surface area which is far more logical.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1444658 - 12/12/2017 16:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3358
Loc: Buderim
Comparison of current WWB:



To the westerly wind burst in Dec 96 that marked the start of the build up towards 97/98 el nino:



Note the different scales as more extreme conditions were achieved in the 97/98 event.

Similar size WWB, similar size western warm pool, so should be similar sized warm kelvin wave. When the first kelvin wave hit the east Pacific in March 97 the cool surface was replaced by warm anomalies that were then consolidated by the much stronger WWB occurring at this time. More subsurface cool water now, but at the surface at the end of the 96 there was a similar surface cool tongue that was a bit weaker, but extended further west. The enhanced trade winds towards the central Pacific now may make some difference, but I'd expect they'd act more to slow the Kelvin wave down after its generated rather than impact the initial generation.

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