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#1445179 - 19/12/2017 13:00 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 315
Loc: Kyabram
The coolest it got for us overnight was 24.9. Sitting on 32.7 now - 13.00 hrs - hard to see it getting to 41 but if the cloud shifts there's a real chance. Looks like the "front" has passed. I can't see any signs of rain/storms at this stage of the day.

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#1445180 - 19/12/2017 13:09 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Was starting to think the same for the city but Avalon is now in the clear and has shot up to 39. If cloud clears quickly some suburbs may do the same
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445181 - 19/12/2017 13:14 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: liberator
The coolest it got for us overnight was 24.9. Sitting on 32.7 now - 13.00 hrs - hard to see it getting to 41 but if the cloud shifts there's a real chance. Looks like the "front" has passed. I can't see any signs of rain/storms at this stage of the day.


It's actually a weak pre-frontal trough passing through atm. The main cold front is still some distance off, and there's a band of cloud on satellite associated with it. Winds are about to turn more northwest/northerly over Melbourne, and with clear sky coming in I suspect it'll turn very hot and quite sultry in a matter of hours! My instincts are telling me that storms are likely today. Just need to wait. smile

Edit: as Logansi pointed out, it's around 39C out at Avalon already! The heat is on.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/12/2017 13:15)

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#1445184 - 19/12/2017 13:34 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1266
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Sitting on 32c up here at present.
But like the rest of u guys, if that cloud
Clears we will easily see 40c I'd think?

Not really wanting storms this arvo,
Especially if the wind temp gets up!
Only want them if they have plenty of
Juice in them! They could cause some
Big problems fire wise and with not a lot
Of rain forecast over coming days.

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#1445185 - 19/12/2017 13:34 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
This is Stormcast chart helps pin when thunderstorms are likely and time.
http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2017121818:2017121906:aus:li:null:0#sc


Edited by chasers addict (19/12/2017 13:36)

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#1445186 - 19/12/2017 13:37 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
First time in a while i have read "significant possiblity of storms developing into supercells" normally is a risk off

Quote:
A cold front crosses Victoria today bringing unstable conditions across the State. The cold front and instability increases during the afternoon across the central areas, before moving into the eastern districts during the evening and overnight. There is significant potential for thunderstorms to become organised, developing into supercells, about the central districts, and western parts of the central districts, during the afternoon and early evening. This would result in damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall, however damanging winds gusts are also a possibility with thunderstorms that may develop elsewhere.


Cloud is clearing here now feels like its already jumped 3-4
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445187 - 19/12/2017 13:37 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1266
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking at the BoM obs and that
Hot nor wester is really strong and
Worrying through west & central vic

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#1445188 - 19/12/2017 13:42 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yeah same Doogasnow. Dry storms aren't welcome; any storms that get going had better drop heavy rain. frown

If Ventusky and BSCH are anything to go by, my area could be in for 5-10mm this afternoon. That would be nice, but hopefully it'll be more than that, preferably 15-25mm or higher.

Still around 31C here in Belgrave atm, having briefly peaked at 33.5C a couple of hours ago. But blue sky is coming, so it's definitely about to heat up!

Edit: the sun's just come out.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/12/2017 13:42)

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#1445189 - 19/12/2017 13:48 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1266
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Does that really strong winds
Diminish the chance of storm
Development ?

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#1445190 - 19/12/2017 13:52 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Here in Bendigo is 34c at 1.50pm and in Adelaide is only 27c.

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#1445200 - 19/12/2017 14:51 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thunderstorms firing up in NW.

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#1445202 - 19/12/2017 14:57 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
And, CA, in the very far SE. The storms are moving/developing very quickly in the NW.

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#1445204 - 19/12/2017 15:05 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Does that really strong winds
Diminish the chance of storm
Development ?


Not necessarily. If there's a good wind shear profile then any storms that do get going can become quite intense (and sometimes even tornadic).

Really heating up now, currently around 37C. eek

Storms starting to get going over the Mallee region; hopefully that line can stretch southeast to Melbourne. smile

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#1445206 - 19/12/2017 15:09 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Look very intense storm moving over Mildura/Red Cliffes atm. I feel quite concerned that we'll have 100s of CGs through the Alps this arvo/evening with not a lot of rain.

Edit: explosion of SES-type jobs in Mildura just in past few minutes.


Edited by ThunderBob (19/12/2017 15:10)

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#1445208 - 19/12/2017 15:12 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very dusty and gusty wind of 36c and worried hope lighting is cloud to cloud not ground.

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#1445210 - 19/12/2017 15:19 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Mildura area getting absolutely hammered by all reports
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445212 - 19/12/2017 15:24 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: logansi
Mildura area getting absolutely hammered by all reports


I am not suprized. Interesting to watch the satellite atm - can see the storm absolutely bombing as it approaches Mildura. SES tree and blg damage jobs all over Mildura and area.

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#1445213 - 19/12/2017 15:30 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV21033
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in Mallee and parts of Northern Country and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 2:28 pm Tuesday, 19 December 2017.
Weather Situation: Thunderstorms are developing in a very unstable environment as a cold front crosses Victoria.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Swan Hill, Kerang and Walpeup.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* Stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* If you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* Listen to the radio for storm updates
* Switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 5:30 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1445216 - 19/12/2017 15:36 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
The change is closing in on metropolitan Melbourne, having just reached Geelong and the Bellarine Peninsula. And if the Laverton radar is anything to go by, then it looks like it's "game-on". Some very rapid, fast-moving shower and thunderstorm development now evident between Wilsons Promontory and Geelong, with a few cells also over the Central Highlands to the north/northwest! grin

Hope these are HP cells with heavy rainfall, given how roasting hot it is outside. It peaked at 37.8C here in Belgrave but it is cooling down slightly, around 36C. Quite blustery and with the barometer showing 996hPa.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/12/2017 15:38)

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#1445217 - 19/12/2017 15:43 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thunder cells bobbling over my roof very fast with drops..

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