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#1444851 - 14/12/2017 17:05 Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12
liberator Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 317
Loc: Kyabram
So really - not too much to say other than north of the divide warm to hot over the next seven days with really no signs of anything to break this. South of the divide (Melbourne/Warrnambool/Lakes Entrance) the heat looks to a little delayed with it not kicking in until Monday,Fingers crossed something sneaks in that hasnt been seen but I doubt it. Stay cool, stay hydrated and slip slop slap.

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#1444952 - 16/12/2017 11:10 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ta liberator, good wrap, its a shame rain-wise, like most, this area has probably gone past the follow up rain window from the last wet event.

Hopefully after a hot Monday, Tuesday's change may deliver a surprise (maybe a bit of luck under a storm?).

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#1444980 - 16/12/2017 18:37 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Plenty of heat around SE Aus over the outlook period:



BOM still giving N Gippy a storm chance Tuesday, but rain topped at 6mm.

.looks like a hot lead into Christmas for us all?

[edit]- today we had a nice fine 29C arvo with seabreeze after a cooler cloudy morning.


Edited by Petros (16/12/2017 18:40)

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#1444987 - 16/12/2017 20:49 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
We are lucky Southey breeze reach over Northern Dived Ranges last-night to low Sat 6:20am 12.5c and tonight now is 23c was good open windows.

Monday night will be horrible warm night.

Tuesday will be 36c
Wednesday will cooler day of 27c
Thursday 30c
Friday 31c

Christmas Day will be cooler SW flow between 20c to 25c most of Victoria.

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#1445026 - 17/12/2017 12:54 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cool grey start to the day out this way, good conditions for the garden chores.

12 hrs closer to Tuesday and GFS is still progging an unseasonably hot afternoon for East Gippsland ahead of a potentially thundery change?:


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#1445038 - 17/12/2017 18:47 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Similar to above in this arvo's update.

Easterly with cloud mainly here today, 29C under a rare sunny patch, making it a great arvo for Christmas Parties in N Gippy! smile

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#1445039 - 17/12/2017 19:16 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah P, looks very warm over the next
Couple of days!! No real rain to speak
Of over the next week or so, maybe a
Shower or two here and there!
Looking like it will all cure around here by
Xmas if we don't get a decent drop before
Then!!

Max of 25c up here today with an
East nor east hair dryer turned on.

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#1445051 - 17/12/2017 22:29 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Hot few days but also fair bit of cloud about as well, saving the real 40-45c heat for most of Vic bar the NW.

Also the hottest air 850s in the 25-29c range pass over Vic Monday night early Tuesday morning.

Get some sun Tuesday before chnage gonna get real hot, high 30s to near 40c with few hours sun and foehn effect in gippy with strong NW winds

Few mms in melb east and W&S gippy then mild to warm to hot on Saturday, another mostly dry change Sun, cool xmas warm to hot and dry leading up to New year.

Long rage showing nothing but big ridges S SEly changes and mostly dry. No good rain till 2018 now

Let the dry and boil begin

Signs of TC activity in last week of year over NW AUs that will only enhance and strengthen ridges and heat into SE Aus

BTW Record heat in SA and NSW next 48 hours 45-47c heat becoming quite widespread.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1445084 - 18/12/2017 12:50 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My post for the past few days from here in Belgrave...

Friday December 15th 2017

Low: 10.8C High: 32.8C Rain: 0mm


Saturday December 16th 2017

Low: 12.2C High: 31.7C Rain: 0mm


Sunday December 17th 2017

Low: 11.7C High: 30.2C Rain: 0mm


Basically it was a run of cool nights that were comfortable for sleeping, and warm to hot, mostly sunny days with refreshing breezes (and gradually increasing high cloud). Very stable summer weather during the past weekend, perfect for spending time with family and friends down in Wheelers Hill and Dandenong, and up in Healesville in the Yarra Valley! smile

Today's pretty much a re-run of the past few days, with plenty of high cloud sailing overhead from that storm system in the Bight.

Overnight low of 14.6C, at the last check it was around 28C.

Amazing and shocking how dry it's quickly becoming after our very soggy start to summer. And with no decent rain in the current 7-10 day outlook that's very bad news for us here in the hills in terms of bushfires; thank goodness tomorrow's the only 35-40C today for Melbourne for a while! Hoping for at least 5-10mm of rain from tomorrow's cool change, plus a good storm or two. frown

I hope and pray this ridging goes away and allows polar blasts, easterly dips and even monsoonal systems and the remnants of tropical cyclones to swing south and give us a good soaking with storms very soon. A wet summer is much better than a dry one.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (18/12/2017 12:53)

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#1445098 - 18/12/2017 15:48 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV21037
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in parts of Central, South West, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:15 pm Monday, 18 December 2017.
An approaching cold front will strengthen northerly winds for a period Tuesday morning.

DAMAGING WINDS averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are possible about elevated areas of the western half of Victoria during early Tuesday morning.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Locations which may be affected include Ararat, Kyneton, Ballarat and Daylesford.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEDT Monday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1445099 - 18/12/2017 15:49 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV22000

Fire Weather Warning
for the Mallee and Northern Country forecast districts
Issued at 3:16 pm EDT on Monday 18 December 2017.

Weather Situation
Hot to very hot conditions are expected across Victoria during Tuesday, with moderate to fresh and gusty north to northeasterly winds. A moderate westerly wind change will enter the west of the State late morning then progress eastward to reach central parts by late afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with possible damaging winds developing near and ahead of the change.

For Tuesday 19 December:
Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following forecast districts:
Mallee and Northern Country
The CFA advises that you:

Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.emergency.vic.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
If you are in an area of severe fire danger the CFA recommends that you

Prepare your bushfire survival kit and finalise your plans.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.cfa.vic.gov.au.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Tuesday.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1445101 - 18/12/2017 16:01 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
The BOM tweeted a chart stating that severe thunderstorms (including damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and large hail) are possible across Victoria tomorrow (hope this Twitter link works):

https://twitter.com/BOM_Vic/status/942575221772619776

Based on the chart it seems that the most likely area for dangerous weather conditions (if storms do develop) will be from Ninety Mile Beach through Wilsons Promontory, the Bass Coast/Phillip Island region and the Mornington & Bellarine Peninsulas to the Surf Coast and Cape Otway, then northwest through the Strezlecki Ranges, Latrobe Valley and metropolitan Melbourne including the Dandenong Ranges, Yarra Valley, Kinglake and Macedon Ranges, Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Yea, Seymour, and across the Northern Plains to Echuca/Moama, Kerang, Swan Hill and towards Mildura.

Hope it comes off, but no dry storms (virga, dry microbursts, and lightning strikes that start bushfires, etc) please. We need heavy rainfall.

Also no thunderstorm asthma please - not that I personally suffer from it, but I certainly hope it doesn't happen for other people's sake, unlike last year in November. frown


Edited by aussiestormfreak (18/12/2017 16:09)

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#1445119 - 18/12/2017 18:17 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Interesting day tommoz(potentially dangerous)
Fire day with heat strong wind and storms
Late in the day! Models not predicting
Any great totals so the storms could be a problem
Fire wise. No widespread rain to squash
Any starts!!

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#1445121 - 18/12/2017 18:42 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Our local BOM forecast mirrors that chart ASF.

Agree certainly TW1 - if Gippsland gets lucky with circa 5mm total from the change, with possible enhancement if lucky under a storm, then its time for us to kick back for Christmas and delay a "look out there" for rain in the new year frown

"Near-Nina" conditions over Jan/Feb will add the "X factor" for Jan/Feb - both with heat events in Vic, and rainfall in the changes between?


...and Dooga, as you have alerted, the difficult fire at Cann R over the past weeks shows what we may have to deal with unless decent rain periods accompany storm events/changes over coming months for all Vic.


Edited by Petros (18/12/2017 18:45)

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#1445122 - 18/12/2017 19:10 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 36.6C here in Belgrave today. Mostly sunny, although the increasing high cloud acted as a bit of a suppressant to the hot, muggy conditions. Currently around 28C and overcast.

Our corner of Melbourne stands to earn around 5-15mm from tomorrow's storm activity according to the BOM. Hopefully we'll collect that as it's needed badly. frown

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#1445134 - 18/12/2017 22:15 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
At moment SA in heavy lightning storms, bush-fires might happen.

Gusty winds for Victoria is for sure and its worry is dry lighting storms.

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#1445139 - 18/12/2017 22:58 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Balmy, humid night here in Belgrave, around 24C atm; it's around 27C in the City btw. Very little wind and totally overcast. Perfect evening for spending outside! smile

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#1445168 - 19/12/2017 11:26 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very warm night of 25c and cant wait for cool change to cool down for night time.

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#1445173 - 19/12/2017 12:41 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 23.5C, currently around 31C. Humid (thankfully), windy and mostly cloudy. Last night certainly was muggy, but I was able to sleep. smile

Remarkably I still haven't recorded a single night above 25C this season. My last such night (and also my hottest night for 2017 to date) was on February 9th when the minimum was 26.9C. My hottest night so far during the 2017/2018 warm season is 24.7C on November 30th.

The satellite shows that clearance will occur over Melbourne in the next couple of hours, so I expect temperatures will soar very quickly. The main cold front/trough are still back over Western Victoria, and although there's a bit of a CAPE in place both Ventusky and BSCH have LI to -6C for areas just west of the metropolitan area this afternoon; also some quite volatile wind shear in spots according to Ventusky!

I'll be watching closely for any convection that gets going over the Western Plains and Mallee region, as the latest update from the BOM on Twitter has a much larger swathe of the State in line for severe thunderstorms this arvo.

https://twitter.com/BOM_Vic/status/942916639976280064

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#1445177 - 19/12/2017 12:58 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yes Aussiestormfreak i checked storm-cast chart is thunderstorms line will blow up from Mildura to Melbourne about 4pm.

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