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#1444851 - 14/12/2017 17:05 Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 314
Loc: Kyabram
So really - not too much to say other than north of the divide warm to hot over the next seven days with really no signs of anything to break this. South of the divide (Melbourne/Warrnambool/Lakes Entrance) the heat looks to a little delayed with it not kicking in until Monday,Fingers crossed something sneaks in that hasnt been seen but I doubt it. Stay cool, stay hydrated and slip slop slap.

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#1444952 - 16/12/2017 11:10 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ta liberator, good wrap, its a shame rain-wise, like most, this area has probably gone past the follow up rain window from the last wet event.

Hopefully after a hot Monday, Tuesday's change may deliver a surprise (maybe a bit of luck under a storm?).

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#1444980 - 16/12/2017 18:37 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Plenty of heat around SE Aus over the outlook period:



BOM still giving N Gippy a storm chance Tuesday, but rain topped at 6mm.

….looks like a hot lead into Christmas for us all?

[edit]- today we had a nice fine 29C arvo with seabreeze after a cooler cloudy morning.


Edited by Petros (16/12/2017 18:40)

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#1444987 - 16/12/2017 20:49 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
We are lucky Southey breeze reach over Northern Dived Ranges last-night to low Sat 6:20am 12.5c and tonight now is 23c was good open windows.

Monday night will be horrible warm night.

Tuesday will be 36c
Wednesday will cooler day of 27c
Thursday 30c
Friday 31c

Christmas Day will be cooler SW flow between 20c to 25c most of Victoria.

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#1445026 - 17/12/2017 12:54 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cool grey start to the day out this way, good conditions for the garden chores.

12 hrs closer to Tuesday and GFS is still progging an unseasonably hot afternoon for East Gippsland ahead of a potentially thundery change?:


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#1445038 - 17/12/2017 18:47 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Similar to above in this arvo's update.

Easterly with cloud mainly here today, 29C under a rare sunny patch, making it a great arvo for Christmas Parties in N Gippy! smile

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#1445039 - 17/12/2017 19:16 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah P, looks very warm over the next
Couple of days!! No real rain to speak
Of over the next week or so, maybe a
Shower or two here and there!
Looking like it will all cure around here by
Xmas if we don't get a decent drop before
Then!!

Max of 25c up here today with an
East nor east hair dryer turned on.

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#1445051 - 17/12/2017 22:29 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Hot few days but also fair bit of cloud about as well, saving the real 40-45c heat for most of Vic bar the NW.

Also the hottest air 850s in the 25-29c range pass over Vic Monday night early Tuesday morning.

Get some sun Tuesday before chnage gonna get real hot, high 30s to near 40c with few hours sun and foehn effect in gippy with strong NW winds

Few mms in melb east and W&S gippy then mild to warm to hot on Saturday, another mostly dry change Sun, cool xmas warm to hot and dry leading up to New year.

Long rage showing nothing but big ridges S SEly changes and mostly dry. No good rain till 2018 now

Let the dry and boil begin

Signs of TC activity in last week of year over NW AUs that will only enhance and strengthen ridges and heat into SE Aus

BTW Record heat in SA and NSW next 48 hours 45-47c heat becoming quite widespread.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1445084 - 18/12/2017 12:50 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My post for the past few days from here in Belgrave...

Friday December 15th 2017

Low: 10.8°C High: 32.8°C Rain: 0mm


Saturday December 16th 2017

Low: 12.2°C High: 31.7°C Rain: 0mm


Sunday December 17th 2017

Low: 11.7°C High: 30.2°C Rain: 0mm


Basically it was a run of cool nights that were comfortable for sleeping, and warm to hot, mostly sunny days with refreshing breezes (and gradually increasing high cloud). Very stable summer weather during the past weekend, perfect for spending time with family and friends down in Wheelers Hill and Dandenong, and up in Healesville in the Yarra Valley! smile

Today's pretty much a re-run of the past few days, with plenty of high cloud sailing overhead from that storm system in the Bight.

Overnight low of 14.6°C, at the last check it was around 28°C.

Amazing and shocking how dry it's quickly becoming after our very soggy start to summer. And with no decent rain in the current 7-10 day outlook that's very bad news for us here in the hills in terms of bushfires; thank goodness tomorrow's the only 35-40°C today for Melbourne for a while! Hoping for at least 5-10mm of rain from tomorrow's cool change, plus a good storm or two. frown

I hope and pray this ridging goes away and allows polar blasts, easterly dips and even monsoonal systems and the remnants of tropical cyclones to swing south and give us a good soaking with storms very soon. A wet summer is much better than a dry one.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (18/12/2017 12:53)

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#1445098 - 18/12/2017 15:48 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV21037
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in parts of Central, South West, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:15 pm Monday, 18 December 2017.
An approaching cold front will strengthen northerly winds for a period Tuesday morning.

DAMAGING WINDS averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are possible about elevated areas of the western half of Victoria during early Tuesday morning.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Locations which may be affected include Ararat, Kyneton, Ballarat and Daylesford.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEDT Monday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1445099 - 18/12/2017 15:49 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV22000

Fire Weather Warning
for the Mallee and Northern Country forecast districts
Issued at 3:16 pm EDT on Monday 18 December 2017.

Weather Situation
Hot to very hot conditions are expected across Victoria during Tuesday, with moderate to fresh and gusty north to northeasterly winds. A moderate westerly wind change will enter the west of the State late morning then progress eastward to reach central parts by late afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with possible damaging winds developing near and ahead of the change.

For Tuesday 19 December:
Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following forecast districts:
Mallee and Northern Country
The CFA advises that you:

Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.emergency.vic.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
If you are in an area of severe fire danger the CFA recommends that you

Prepare your bushfire survival kit and finalise your plans.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.cfa.vic.gov.au.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Tuesday.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1445101 - 18/12/2017 16:01 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
The BOM tweeted a chart stating that severe thunderstorms (including damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and large hail) are possible across Victoria tomorrow (hope this Twitter link works):

https://twitter.com/BOM_Vic/status/942575221772619776

Based on the chart it seems that the most likely area for dangerous weather conditions (if storms do develop) will be from Ninety Mile Beach through Wilsons Promontory, the Bass Coast/Phillip Island region and the Mornington & Bellarine Peninsulas to the Surf Coast and Cape Otway, then northwest through the Strezlecki Ranges, Latrobe Valley and metropolitan Melbourne including the Dandenong Ranges, Yarra Valley, Kinglake and Macedon Ranges, Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Yea, Seymour, and across the Northern Plains to Echuca/Moama, Kerang, Swan Hill and towards Mildura.

Hope it comes off, but no dry storms (virga, dry microbursts, and lightning strikes that start bushfires, etc) please. We need heavy rainfall.

Also no thunderstorm asthma please - not that I personally suffer from it, but I certainly hope it doesn't happen for other people's sake, unlike last year in November. frown


Edited by aussiestormfreak (18/12/2017 16:09)

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#1445119 - 18/12/2017 18:17 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Interesting day tommoz(potentially dangerous)
Fire day with heat strong wind and storms
Late in the day! Models not predicting
Any great totals so the storms could be a problem
Fire wise. No widespread rain to squash
Any starts!!

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#1445121 - 18/12/2017 18:42 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Our local BOM forecast mirrors that chart ASF.

Agree certainly TW1 - if Gippsland gets lucky with circa 5mm total from the change, with possible enhancement if lucky under a storm, then its time for us to kick back for Christmas and delay a "look out there" for rain in the new year frown

"Near-Nina" conditions over Jan/Feb will add the "X factor" for Jan/Feb - both with heat events in Vic, and rainfall in the changes between?


...and Dooga, as you have alerted, the difficult fire at Cann R over the past weeks shows what we may have to deal with unless decent rain periods accompany storm events/changes over coming months for all Vic.


Edited by Petros (18/12/2017 18:45)

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#1445122 - 18/12/2017 19:10 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 36.6°C here in Belgrave today. Mostly sunny, although the increasing high cloud acted as a bit of a suppressant to the hot, muggy conditions. Currently around 28°C and overcast.

Our corner of Melbourne stands to earn around 5-15mm from tomorrow's storm activity according to the BOM. Hopefully we'll collect that as it's needed badly. frown

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#1445134 - 18/12/2017 22:15 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
At moment SA in heavy lightning storms, bush-fires might happen.

Gusty winds for Victoria is for sure and its worry is dry lighting storms.

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#1445139 - 18/12/2017 22:58 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Balmy, humid night here in Belgrave, around 24°C atm; it's around 27°C in the City btw. Very little wind and totally overcast. Perfect evening for spending outside! smile

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#1445168 - 19/12/2017 11:26 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very warm night of 25c and cant wait for cool change to cool down for night time.

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#1445173 - 19/12/2017 12:41 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 23.5°C, currently around 31°C. Humid (thankfully), windy and mostly cloudy. Last night certainly was muggy, but I was able to sleep. smile

Remarkably I still haven't recorded a single night above 25°C this season. My last such night (and also my hottest night for 2017 to date) was on February 9th when the minimum was 26.9°C. My hottest night so far during the 2017/2018 warm season is 24.7°C on November 30th.

The satellite shows that clearance will occur over Melbourne in the next couple of hours, so I expect temperatures will soar very quickly. The main cold front/trough are still back over Western Victoria, and although there's a bit of a CAPE in place both Ventusky and BSCH have LI to -6°C for areas just west of the metropolitan area this afternoon; also some quite volatile wind shear in spots according to Ventusky!

I'll be watching closely for any convection that gets going over the Western Plains and Mallee region, as the latest update from the BOM on Twitter has a much larger swathe of the State in line for severe thunderstorms this arvo.

https://twitter.com/BOM_Vic/status/942916639976280064

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#1445177 - 19/12/2017 12:58 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yes Aussiestormfreak i checked storm-cast chart is thunderstorms line will blow up from Mildura to Melbourne about 4pm.

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#1445179 - 19/12/2017 13:00 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 314
Loc: Kyabram
The coolest it got for us overnight was 24.9. Sitting on 32.7 now - 13.00 hrs - hard to see it getting to 41 but if the cloud shifts there's a real chance. Looks like the "front" has passed. I can't see any signs of rain/storms at this stage of the day.

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#1445180 - 19/12/2017 13:09 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Was starting to think the same for the city but Avalon is now in the clear and has shot up to 39. If cloud clears quickly some suburbs may do the same
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445181 - 19/12/2017 13:14 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: liberator
The coolest it got for us overnight was 24.9. Sitting on 32.7 now - 13.00 hrs - hard to see it getting to 41 but if the cloud shifts there's a real chance. Looks like the "front" has passed. I can't see any signs of rain/storms at this stage of the day.


It's actually a weak pre-frontal trough passing through atm. The main cold front is still some distance off, and there's a band of cloud on satellite associated with it. Winds are about to turn more northwest/northerly over Melbourne, and with clear sky coming in I suspect it'll turn very hot and quite sultry in a matter of hours! My instincts are telling me that storms are likely today. Just need to wait. smile

Edit: as Logansi pointed out, it's around 39°C out at Avalon already! The heat is on.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/12/2017 13:15)

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#1445184 - 19/12/2017 13:34 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Sitting on 32c up here at present.
But like the rest of u guys, if that cloud
Clears we will easily see 40c I'd think?

Not really wanting storms this arvo,
Especially if the wind temp gets up!
Only want them if they have plenty of
Juice in them! They could cause some
Big problems fire wise and with not a lot
Of rain forecast over coming days.

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#1445185 - 19/12/2017 13:34 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
This is Stormcast chart helps pin when thunderstorms are likely and time.
http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2017121818:2017121906:aus:li:null:0#sc


Edited by chasers addict (19/12/2017 13:36)

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#1445186 - 19/12/2017 13:37 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
First time in a while i have read "significant possiblity of storms developing into supercells" normally is a risk off

Quote:
A cold front crosses Victoria today bringing unstable conditions across the State. The cold front and instability increases during the afternoon across the central areas, before moving into the eastern districts during the evening and overnight. There is significant potential for thunderstorms to become organised, developing into supercells, about the central districts, and western parts of the central districts, during the afternoon and early evening. This would result in damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall, however damanging winds gusts are also a possibility with thunderstorms that may develop elsewhere.


Cloud is clearing here now feels like its already jumped 3-4°
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445187 - 19/12/2017 13:37 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking at the BoM obs and that
Hot nor wester is really strong and
Worrying through west & central vic

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#1445188 - 19/12/2017 13:42 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yeah same Doogasnow. Dry storms aren't welcome; any storms that get going had better drop heavy rain. frown

If Ventusky and BSCH are anything to go by, my area could be in for 5-10mm this afternoon. That would be nice, but hopefully it'll be more than that, preferably 15-25mm or higher.

Still around 31°C here in Belgrave atm, having briefly peaked at 33.5°C a couple of hours ago. But blue sky is coming, so it's definitely about to heat up!

Edit: the sun's just come out.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/12/2017 13:42)

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#1445189 - 19/12/2017 13:48 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Does that really strong winds
Diminish the chance of storm
Development ?

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#1445190 - 19/12/2017 13:52 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Here in Bendigo is 34c at 1.50pm and in Adelaide is only 27c.

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#1445200 - 19/12/2017 14:51 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thunderstorms firing up in NW.

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#1445202 - 19/12/2017 14:57 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
And, CA, in the very far SE. The storms are moving/developing very quickly in the NW.

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#1445204 - 19/12/2017 15:05 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Does that really strong winds
Diminish the chance of storm
Development ?


Not necessarily. If there's a good wind shear profile then any storms that do get going can become quite intense (and sometimes even tornadic).

Really heating up now, currently around 37°C. eek

Storms starting to get going over the Mallee region; hopefully that line can stretch southeast to Melbourne. smile

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#1445206 - 19/12/2017 15:09 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Look very intense storm moving over Mildura/Red Cliffes atm. I feel quite concerned that we'll have 100s of CGs through the Alps this arvo/evening with not a lot of rain.

Edit: explosion of SES-type jobs in Mildura just in past few minutes.


Edited by ThunderBob (19/12/2017 15:10)

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#1445208 - 19/12/2017 15:12 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very dusty and gusty wind of 36c and worried hope lighting is cloud to cloud not ground.

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#1445210 - 19/12/2017 15:19 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Mildura area getting absolutely hammered by all reports
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445212 - 19/12/2017 15:24 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: logansi
Mildura area getting absolutely hammered by all reports


I am not suprized. Interesting to watch the satellite atm - can see the storm absolutely bombing as it approaches Mildura. SES tree and blg damage jobs all over Mildura and area.

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#1445213 - 19/12/2017 15:30 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV21033
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in Mallee and parts of Northern Country and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 2:28 pm Tuesday, 19 December 2017.
Weather Situation: Thunderstorms are developing in a very unstable environment as a cold front crosses Victoria.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Swan Hill, Kerang and Walpeup.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* Stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* If you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* Listen to the radio for storm updates
* Switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 5:30 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1445216 - 19/12/2017 15:36 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
The change is closing in on metropolitan Melbourne, having just reached Geelong and the Bellarine Peninsula. And if the Laverton radar is anything to go by, then it looks like it's "game-on". Some very rapid, fast-moving shower and thunderstorm development now evident between Wilsons Promontory and Geelong, with a few cells also over the Central Highlands to the north/northwest! grin

Hope these are HP cells with heavy rainfall, given how roasting hot it is outside. It peaked at 37.8°C here in Belgrave but it is cooling down slightly, around 36°C. Quite blustery and with the barometer showing 996hPa.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/12/2017 15:38)

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#1445217 - 19/12/2017 15:43 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thunder cells bobbling over my roof very fast with drops..

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#1445219 - 19/12/2017 15:46 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV21033
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in Central, Mallee, Northern Country, North Central and parts of South West, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:31 pm Tuesday, 19 December 2017.
Weather Situation: Thunderstorms are developing in a very unstable environment as a cold front crosses Victoria.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Bendigo, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne and Traralgon.

Mildura has recorded a wind gust of 89km/hr at 3:01pm.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* If you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* Listen to the radio for storm updates
* Switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 6:35 pm.
If severe thunderstorms develop in the Melbourne Area, a more detailed Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be issued to people in this area.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/12/2017 15:47)

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#1445220 - 19/12/2017 15:47 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Port Phillip Squall Warning
IDV26700

Please be aware
Waves may rise rapidly during squalls.

Squall Warning
For Port Phillip and Western Port

Issued at 3:31 pm EDT on Tuesday 19 December 2017.

A south to southwesterly change with squalls to 45 knots will move across Port Phillip and Western Port during the next 2 hours. Strong squalls are also possible near thunderstorms during this afternoon.

The next alert will be issued by 5:30 pm EDT on Tuesday 19 December 2017

This is a warning that potentially hazardous marine weather is imminent. Mariners are advised to take necessary safety precautions and check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local Waters Forecast for information on wind, wave and weather conditions for these areas.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1445222 - 19/12/2017 15:48 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV21035
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Melbourne Area
for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in Western and parts of Port Phillip, Western Port, Mornington Peninsula and Geelong and Bellarine Peninsula Local Warning Areas.

Issued at 3:45 pm Tuesday, 19 December 2017.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:40 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Rosebud and the area east of Ballarat.
These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast.

They are forecast to affect Bacchus Marsh and Phillip Island by 4:10 pm and Laverton and Werribee by 4:40 pm.

Damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* If you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* Listen to the radio for storm updates
* Switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 4:45 pm.
A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for the Central, Mallee, Northern Country, North Central and parts of the South West, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera districts.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1445224 - 19/12/2017 15:54 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Really starting to turn nasty across Melbourne; these storms are very fast-moving and explosive, and they're intensifying very rapidly! Those cells over Ballan and down over the Mornington Peninsula have got dark-red/black cores. Wow!!

Temperature's jumped back up to 37°C here in Belgrave. Camera batteries are charging up, so I'm ready for action. smile

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#1445226 - 19/12/2017 16:03 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Back to sunny seem nothing just few showers that's it very clear blue skies in west and winds gone down to light..

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#1445229 - 19/12/2017 16:13 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
I don't think i've every seen a cell move so fast on radar, that cell now approaching Werribee is 'jumping' on the radar!
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445231 - 19/12/2017 16:29 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Something not right gusty wind returns and temperature back to 35c

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#1445232 - 19/12/2017 16:31 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
First lot of storms had very strong wind. Rubbish and Recycle Bin tipped up and everything blew out. Not impressed at all.
Last storm a lot calmer.

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#1445234 - 19/12/2017 16:32 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
BigBen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2006
Posts: 247
Loc: Home GlenHuntly Work Richmond
Jesus, that last radar shot on the 64k (16:24) looks incredible.

Frankston is going to get smashed, it could do hundreds of thousands of dollars of improvements.......



Edited by BigBen (19/12/2017 16:32)
_________________________
You want a prediction about the weather, you're asking the wrong Phil. I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be grey, and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life.

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#1445238 - 19/12/2017 16:42 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
stormygirl Offline
Weather Babe and Moderator

Registered: 21/12/2004
Posts: 4041
Loc: Melbourne, SE Burbs
No storms here, but wind change is pushing through.

Max temp of 37.6C today, no down to 26C in matter of minutes.
_________________________
New online weather station up and running: http://www.stormygirl.net/wx/index.html




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#1445239 - 19/12/2017 16:52 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Temp has risen suddenly to around 37C here after only high 20s all day. Cloudy. Little wind so far all day.


Edited by ThunderBob (19/12/2017 16:53)
Edit Reason: typo

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#1445240 - 19/12/2017 16:54 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Melbourne Area
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in Western Port, Inner East, Mornington Peninsula, South East, Northern, Outer East and parts of Port Phillip and Inner Local Warning Areas.

Issued at 4:37 pm Tuesday, 19 December 2017.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 4:35 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Frankston and Kilmore.

These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast.

Very dangerous thunderstorms are forecast to affect Craigieburn, Greensborough, Ringwood and Rosebud by 5:05 pm and Healesville and Pakenham by 5:35 pm.

Other severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near the area south of Lang Lang and the area north of Bass.

Destructive winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.

Laverton has recorded a wind gust of 98km/hr at 4:15pm.

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#1445245 - 19/12/2017 17:40 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very dark in North and cell cirrus clouds bubble more West to south

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#1445252 - 19/12/2017 18:04 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hot oppressive calm muggy and overcast 36C here at the moment. Calm before the storm?

Baro has fallen to 992 hPa, WOW - lowest since early September.

[edit] - couple of minutes later, NW'ly gusty wind arrived lifting temp to 37C here.


Edited by Petros (19/12/2017 18:11)

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#1445256 - 19/12/2017 18:29 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Oh no no big wall cloud heading from North.

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#1445258 - 19/12/2017 18:38 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445259 - 19/12/2017 18:46 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Felt like North W change soon photos

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#1445260 - 19/12/2017 18:48 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Decent "blob" looming into Eastern sector of Vic above, Logansi. Hope theres 5-10mm rain available for N Gippy from it! smile

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#1445261 - 19/12/2017 18:49 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 100
Loc: Shepparton
Just got smashed by a big thunderstorm trampoline is smashed trees down everywhere extreme rain got some video will put it up asap
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

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#1445262 - 19/12/2017 18:53 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 314
Loc: Kyabram
I was so wrong in my earlier post. Wow and I thought it missed us or wasn't going to happen. That was a wild 30 mins and we got the edge of it. Seeing what was on the radar gleno you certainly got hit. 6mm of rain by the aws but that's out of the way of the majority of the storm. Temp dropped 17 in under 2 hours.
Watching the radar - damn its moving fast.


Edited by liberator (19/12/2017 18:55)

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#1445263 - 19/12/2017 18:56 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Was powerful hurricane winds and dumped 15mm in 10min

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#1445264 - 19/12/2017 18:57 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Cant wait to see CA, that looks nasty, hope all is ok. Its heading my way.

4pm storm here was a few rumbles and no rain as storm formed overhead and moved off. Storms just formed east of here with a few spots and rumbles.

32.9c here today with DP around 17, sharply drier to the west real US type stuff.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1445266 - 19/12/2017 19:14 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
CFA Scanners going mad up Shepperton way, just heard one the most extraordinary calls "We have a house which has been blown down" Vic Fire "What Number", "unknown its no longer where it started"
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445267 - 19/12/2017 19:35 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Ryan T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 10
Loc: West Footscray
I wish I still lived in the Northern or Eastern Suburbs. Footscray has seemed to have missed a lot of the events recently, although the other week after a hot day a storm dropped a bolt very close by behind me.

But we are in the "immediate threat" area for this big cell.

Edit: hear thunder close by


Edited by Ryan T (19/12/2017 19:36)

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#1445268 - 19/12/2017 19:36 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445271 - 19/12/2017 19:50 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Jobs on Emergency Vic just hit 1000
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445272 - 19/12/2017 19:55 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Moz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2013
Posts: 146
Loc: Melbourne - SE Suburbs
INCREDIBLE light show looking north! Best in a long, long time.

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#1445273 - 19/12/2017 19:58 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Ryan T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 10
Loc: West Footscray
Just saw some great bolts nearby. Windy and pouring now

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#1445274 - 19/12/2017 20:01 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bendigo Wall-cloud Thunderstorm ...Hurricane winds of rain dumped 19mm in less 15min, Photos looking North is not very common from that direction.


Look West

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#1445275 - 19/12/2017 20:03 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Another storm heading this way, from above Mildura. Very loud Thunder.


Edited by Blackacubra (19/12/2017 20:04)

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#1445276 - 19/12/2017 20:05 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Ryan T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 10
Loc: West Footscray
Just had water running down my wall in my room.. and so much running off the roof.. ok that is enough now.

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#1445277 - 19/12/2017 20:14 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Where abouts is your location Ryan?

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#1445278 - 19/12/2017 20:17 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
vjknight Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 193
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
Well that was the most eventful storm since early March 2010. Streets surrounding us are running torrents. Hate to be at the bottom of the hill near Flemington racecourse.

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#1445279 - 19/12/2017 20:22 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Ryan T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 10
Loc: West Footscray
Just updated my location.

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#1445280 - 19/12/2017 20:26 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: Ryan T]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2611
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
Hi folks.

Just copped a beating in Wantirna. large hail and lightning bolts all around. Flooding and some roof damage - but easy fix.
What a ripper of a storm. Was actually a bit worried with the hail hitting the skylight - sounded like it cracked.
This storm/s remind me of Christmas day some years ago when the hail was the size of small footballs. That one caused some roof damage and holes in lazerlite [if that's how you spell it] about 6 inches across.

Thank goodness it has passed for now.

Cheers, Duck.

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#1445281 - 19/12/2017 20:30 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cooled to 25c here. Light northerly. A distant rumble occasionally from N. Hopefully theres something left in the change to provide a few mm here over next hour or so?

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#1445286 - 19/12/2017 20:54 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Some nice steady rain here prod bout
3-4mm so far. Easing off now!

Thanks for that Ryan 👍

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#1445288 - 19/12/2017 21:07 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
First spots of rain - flashin' non-stop to my west/north-west

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#1445289 - 19/12/2017 21:12 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very unreal the Big Monster Cell started from Mildura and went trough Bendigo and Melbourne then into Brass Strait Sea properly reach NE Tasmania.


Edited by chasers addict (19/12/2017 21:12)

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#1445290 - 19/12/2017 21:17 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: chasers addict]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Very unreal the Big Monster Cell started from Mildura and went trough Bendigo and Melbourne then into Brass Strait Sea properly reach NE Tasmania.


Yeah really amazing, very very rare that they make the whole journey
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445291 - 19/12/2017 21:29 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: BigBen]
DanielB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 100
Loc: Bulleen VIC
Originally Posted By: BigBen
Jesus, that last radar shot on the 64k (16:24) looks incredible.

Frankston is going to get smashed, it could do hundreds of thousands of dollars of improvements.......

Made me laugh!

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#1445292 - 19/12/2017 21:30 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Some ridiculous winds have been recorded out there:

Melbourne Airport: 93km/h
Bendigo: 111km/h
Wangaratta: 113km/h
Kilmore Gap: 117km/h
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1445299 - 19/12/2017 22:01 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Cleared here now. Not much wind. At times driving rain for short period (guessing 3-5mm: check in morning). Lots of light and noise.

I think there'll be some lightning-strike fires appearing tomorrow morning.

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#1445305 - 19/12/2017 23:28 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 214
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Well that was indeed something. I ended up driving home through most of it as it came in. Didn't encounter hail thank goodness.

- 16.8mm total
- 185.8mm/hr rain rate at 8:09 PM

Before:

IMAG0396 by Alex, on Flickr

IMAG0397 by Alex, on Flickr

During:

Screenshot_1 by Alex, on Flickr

After:

IMAG0398 by Alex, on Flickr

IMAG0399 by Alex, on Flickr


Edited by Alex_96L (19/12/2017 23:30)

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#1445311 - 20/12/2017 00:54 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey guys! What a sensational day it was yesterday, a full-scale 'Battle of the Air Masses' that unleashed what's become one of my top ten storm days ever!!!!! =D

All day long my instincts kept screaming at me, telling me that dangerous weather was coming. And my patience paid off! All the ingredients needed for yesterday’s epic storm outbreak were in place and ready to go (including heat, cold, low pressure, instability, humidity, a strong CAPE, and high wind shear).

In the space of 6 hours the Belgrave area had everything from 38°C heat and gale-force northerly winds to powerful thunderstorms with non-stop lightning (including one of the most dangerous CG-fests I've lived through), deafening thunder, large hailstones, torrential rain, flash flooding and tornadic storm structure, to a gorgeous post-storm sunset with mammatus, and a very comfortable night in the teens! Full report below... grin

As the cold front/trough entered metropolitan Melbourne around mid-afternoon the fun finally kicked off at 4pm. I went for a walk around 4:20pm and was amazing at the view across the west/southwestern horizon. The first enormous cumulonimbus clouds(stretching northwest/southeast along a line from Port Phillip down towards Wilsons Promontory) had breached the CAPE and exploded to possibly 30-40,000 feet or more, with the strongest updrafts punching the tropopause; the base of these storms were dark and had a bit of interesting structure, including a few lowerings. I also detected one or two distant lightning flashes in the cell over the Bay. The wind was howling out of the north at gale-force (as stated earlier) and it was still roasting hot, around 37°C! eek

Given these storms were moving very, very quickly and that there new storms approaching from the west/northwest, I didn't want to be caught out in the open by severe weather conditions. So after 20 minutes I quickly returned home just as the northern edge of the storm over the Bay brushed us to our south. No thunder or lightning, only a flat, dark base with the odd spit of rain, and of course those incessant hot northerly gales - until the cool change FINALLY moved in at 4:48pm! grin

For a while I thought that the show was over, but in fact it was just starting! smile

The temperature dropped to a noticeably cooler but muggy 28°C within minutes of the change hitting Belgrave, with winds easing to a refreshing breeze. Convection built up along the change (which had become a convergence boundary), and by around 5pm several storms cells developed just to our west and quickly connected the storms from the Bay (which were racing off to the southeast) with a string of intense storms just to our north (stretching from Melbourne’s northern/northeast suburbs towards Mount Disappointment and Seymour). This was to be the first of several ‘direct-hits’ for us here in Belgrave yesterday, but it was merely an appetiser.

Two possible supercell thunderstorms passed through our area as the squall line swept over, both tagged as “very dangerous” on the BOM’s Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the Melbourne metropolitan area. It quickly got extremely dark and there was plenty of thunder as these cells threatened. I observed distant lightning flashes and even a distinctly circular, likely tornadic wall cloud under the base of the more northerly of these cells (over the Dandenong Ranges to our north), and we copped around 10 minutes of heavy rain with loud thunder from the southerly cell. It was actually quite a heavy sunshower btw lol, with 1.1mm collected in the gauge during the storm. smile

Just before the storm was done and dusted, we had a particularly loud thunderclap that served as a reminder to NEVER underestimate the risk of being struck by lightning! =S

By 5:15pm the storm line had moved on and I initially thought that was the end of it! But yet more convection exploded across the western horizon and just after 5:30pm Round 2 began!! =D

I went for another walk just after 5:45pm as this new wave of activity bore down on us. A line of cells stretched along the southwestern horizon from St. Kilda to Korumburra. To the north a rather isolated cell was brewing over Montrose and near Lilydale, just downwind of another cell from Yan Yean. And coming straight at us from the northwest was yet another cell over Ringwood and Doncaster.

A few patchy scud clouds moved in from the south, and for a while I was concerned that an ugly post-frontal scudfest was about to begin and thus ruin my view of these new storm cells. mad smile

Fortunately this didn’t eventuate. In fact these isolated low stratus clouds actually served to enhance my view of the impending storms, all the more as the Sun struggled to penetrate the rapidly gathering darkness. And the thunder was ramping up big time! smile

I knew the situation was yet again becoming far too dangerous to stay out in the open for long without being struck by lightning, so after 5-10 minutes I ran back home and took shelter. The Ringwood/Doncaster storm cell struck at 6pm, bringing another 10-15 minutes of heavy rain. But like the supercells an hour earlier, this storm was over as quickly as it had begun.

But even though this cell had past, “Round 2” kept up for about another 45 minutes in the lead-up to the truly dangerous weather that burst upon us after 7pm! Numerous, locally intense storm cells whizzed across the Dandenong Ranges/eastern/southeastern suburbs region; most of these cells missed us, although a string of storms passed through Belgrave during this period (either at glancing blow just barely to the north or south, or a direct-hit). The whole time we had almost non-stop thunder with brief bursts of heavy rain (another 4.2mm in the gauge), and even a quick round of hail (the largest stone being 1cm in diameter) just after 6:35pm. One particularly vicious cell raced by to our south/southwest around 6:45pm (towards Dandenong and Narre Warren), spitting out some spectacular lightning strikes and even whipping up a rather interesting wall cloud formation under its dark updraft base!

All the while I was intently watching the radar and the skies to the north, monitoring the progress of the powerful thunderstorm that had erupted over the Mallee region and Northern Plains earlier, wondering whether it would strike Melbourne later in the day. Which it did do of course! The first visual warning sign that the weather was taking a very nasty turn came when extensive high cloud ahead of the approaching beast swept overhead from the northwest after 6:45pm, turning the whole sky into a rather ‘cluttered’ mess of gloomy, stormy weather.

But even well before this ferocious storm struck, the weather turned very, VERY dangerous just after 7pm! A small storm cell exploded ahead of the squall line near Lancefield to the north of Melbourne at about 6:30pm and raced southeast, growing quickly in size and power as it did so; another equally intense cell developed on its south side near Yan Yean around 7pm and headed south/southeast – straight at us! The radar signature showed that this was indeed a full-blown tornadic-supercell thunderstorm with the potential for tornadoes, flooding, destructive winds and big hailstones, and I immediately had fears of a repeat of March 6th 2010!! eek

As the supercell charged towards the Dandenong Ranges, the northwest sky very quickly turned extremely dark with almost-continuous rolling thunder and angry bolts of lightning, including CCs flying through the air and CGs slamming into the ground, making it far too dangerous for me to cover my car; I was praying hard that it would be spared any damage! frown

The supercell burst upon us at 7:15pm, subjecting us to 15 minutes of near-total darkness (with a very slight green tinge to the clouds), deafening thunderclaps, one of the most spectacular and dangerous CG-lightning displays I’ve EVER lived through, torrential rain (6.3mm, with the peak rainfall rate being 77mm/hr at the height of the storm, the driveway turning into a river, and the lawns becoming flooded), and hailstones to 2cm in diameter!! Almost no wind during this INSANE storm, and no damage to my car! The lightning was occurring on average once every couple of seconds, and the bolts (when they struck) were huge and perilously-close! =D

Once the storm retreated southwards, the sky remained gloomy. By this time the dangerous storm front that was moving in from Northern Victoria was over Melbourne’s northern suburbs (moving south/southeast), but a new storm line developed ahead of it all the way down towards Phillip Island (moving east/southeast - the supercell that had just been and gone would also become part of this new squall line btw). Thus we now had a bizarre “T-shaped” severe thunderstorm complex heading straight at us! crazy eek

It turned very, very dark with thunder and lightning yet again just after 7:45pm as the storm approached, and within minutes it was upon us! For 30 minutes we had almost-continuous lightning (on average once every 1-2 seconds, with a few dangerous CGs but otherwise mostly sheet flashes and the occasional CC), non-stop thunder, torrential rain (12.7mm, with the peak rainfall rate being 66.8mm/hr), and strong, gusty winds. No hail this time though.

By 8:20pm the storm cleared southwards, with the thunder fading into silence by 8:30pm. As a parting treat the cumulonimbus storm cloud’s anvil generated one of the best mammatus displays I’ve ever seen, perfectly timed for sunset! grin

The temperature peaked at 37.8°C yesterday as stated earlier, dropping to around 28°C once the change moved in, and then gradually falling further to around 14°C during and immediately after the storms during the evening. At the last check it had risen back slightly to 15°C. Much more pleasant than last night. smile

Here’s a breakdown of the rain I collected:

1.1mm during the supercells between 5:00pm and 5:15pm.
4.2mm during the Round 2 thundery showers and hail between 6:00pm and 7:00pm.
6.3mm during the dangerous supercell between 7:15pm and 7:30pm.
12.7mm during the “T-shaped” severe thunderstorm complex between 7:50pm and 8:20pm.

So in total I collected 24.3mm, which my December 2017 total to 164.4mm! This renewed burst of rain will help delay the bushfire risk for at least another few weeks!! grin

And as best as I can tell from the radar archives on the Weather Chaser, it appears I copped a direct-hit (or side-swipe) from storms no less than NINE times yesterday!! =D

A bit of minor flooding in my area, but much more significant flash flooding in Upwey and Upper Ferntree Gully according to my sister.

Plenty of ugly snails out enjoying the damp conditions too, yuck! sick mad

Also a friend of mine in Corryong posted on Facebook an image of a tree that was torn down by severe storms occurring up in the Upper Murray.

Storm footage (including cloud structure, lightning, heavy rain, hail, flooding, the sunset, etc) to come in the new few days when I’ve had a chance to review it and upload it to Facebook and Instagram! smile

Looks like Melbourne’s eastern suburbs may be in for one more round of storms tonight! There’s a line of activity stretching west along the Central Highlands between about Eildon and Macedon, racing south/southeastwards. It appears the Dandenong Ranges may miss the most intense cells, unless the activity to the north that’s taking aim at us can suddenly intensify! smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (20/12/2017 00:57)

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#1445315 - 20/12/2017 06:20 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hi all, great reading. We lost power till after midnight when the Bendigo express went through. Can vouch for wind obs. The only other storm I have been in like that in Australia was Shepparton labor day storm. Was simply fantastic. Neighbour drove with it from Bendigo, kept getting overtaken with the storm speed. Power out over big area, trees dropping and carnage.
9.3mm in a handful of minutes rain rate over 213mm/hr
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1445319 - 20/12/2017 07:39 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 100
Loc: Shepparton
https://youtu.be/G6yjwbRNMVA hey ruckle and storm chasers, check out my footage,let me know what you think of the strange brown clouds just before it hits, i think its smoke from spot fires , im not sure scary stuff got it all on video, trampoline smashed into the side of the house all on video, not as bad as the storm here in shepparton labor day that you filmed but still wild
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

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#1445327 - 20/12/2017 09:02 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
10.5mm here. About half in rain behind the front. Compared to most areas, it was very benign here: no wind, no hail and no particularly heavy rain.

I think there may have been enough rain behind the front that lightning-strike fire start-ups will be minimal.

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#1445359 - 20/12/2017 12:31 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hope everyone enjoyed storm chasing and mess clean up is not fun...Now Victorians feel better cooler Today..

Bendigo areas have lots damage to clean up is trees, tin sheds and trampoline..

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#1445371 - 20/12/2017 13:32 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
I wonder if the BOM will do a report along the path of this "Calder express"? And whether it will be made public. What I mean is something with soundings, radar, photos along the path, assessment of damage and so on. Discussion on the met environment-would be an interesting read /presentation. Whilst not as unique as some comments have suggested it is rare to have such long track storm that has impacted such a large area and so many people. I think storms with such long tracks in the past have perhaps moved across the state more from w to e and north of the divide. As soon as Melbourne becomes involved its "unique". Would also love some detail on the Shepp Benalla area if it ever became available.

As I recall the Shepp Labor day storm had its origin somewhere NW of Deniliquin and ended up petering out on the ranges SE of Shepp.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1445439 - 20/12/2017 18:30 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Just had another unexpected unusually SW small thunderstorm gusty winds ,Small hail dumped another 12mm ...
Looking West

Looking SW

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#1445441 - 20/12/2017 20:13 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
A mild and windy 24c up here today.
We received 7mm out of all that last night,
Which when u looked at the radar I thought
We were in for an inch lol
Suspect most of that would be already
Gone with strong wind and sun today.

Hopefully everyone is ok through the
North of the state with those powerful
Storms moving through last night😨

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#1445442 - 20/12/2017 20:19 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
5mm in the gauge this morning.

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#1445443 - 20/12/2017 20:19 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Now for another fairly warm stretch
And bugger all rain on horizon except
For a shower on sunday.

Was gazing back through my rainfall
To date this month, found interesting that
If it wasn't for that wet first week of
December where we had 90mm, we would
Only be sitting on 7mm for the month lol

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#1445444 - 20/12/2017 20:27 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great read above! Well done all!

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#1445451 - 20/12/2017 23:13 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Today's report from here in Belgrave...

Overnight low of 14.3°C, reached a top of 26.2°C. Currently around 15°C.

It's been a warm, humid day, but much cooler than yesterday. No weather action to speak of, except for a refreshing westerly breeze as the cold front pushed through, plus sunny spells alternating with cloudy periods. It looked dark and convective at times, almost as if a surprise storm could pop up, but the nearest heavy shower and thunderstorm activity was confined to Gippsland and along and north of the Great Dividing Range. All we got was a few spits of rain at about 5pm.

I was down in Ferntree Gully and neighbouring Upper Ferntree Gully this afternoon and got to see some of the damage from yesterday's ferocious storms!

A lot of dirt/mud/loose gravel and even some damage to traffic barriers on Burwood Highway due to floodwaters; that stretch of road was closed off by the CFA yesterday! Plus some minor tree limb damage from high winds or lightning strikes. And worst of all, a lot of vehicles with hail dents at the various car dealerships! eek

We ourselves here in Belgrave also had some very minor wind damage, but only a couple of broken twigs and tree limbs in our backyard.

I forgot to mention that there was a lot of low cloud hugging the Dandenong Ranges yesterday evening in the storms' wake.

The storms I mentioned towards the end of my last post sadly weakened as they moved through after 1am this morning. A few more showers/storms sideswiped the Dandenong Ranges to the east just after 3am and again just after 4am. But by 4:30am the show was over.

Edit: here are the links to my footage from yesterday's action on Instagram... smile

Around 4:30pm in 37°C heat and gale-force northerlies as the first severe thunderstorms erupt over Melbourne and then sideswipe us:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bc5laLqADug/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Around 5pm as the first supercells develop and strike Belgrave:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bc5o_SJA3kS/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Between 5:20pm and 6pm as "Round 2" kicks off:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bc5vRxdA2Mb/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

And between 6pm and 7pm as "Round 2" sweeps through:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bc51nfwg57L/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Between 7pm and 7:30pm before and during the dangerous supercell (CG lightning strikes, torrential rain and 2cm hail):
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bc6rKoGgQ3Z/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Between 7:30pm and 9pm as the ferocious storm system from Northern Victoria sweeps through, followed by mammatus at sunset:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bc6wCMyguQ3/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak


Edited by aussiestormfreak (20/12/2017 23:23)

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#1445611 - 23/12/2017 17:12 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My post for the past few days including today from here in Belgrave...

Thursday December 21st 2017


Low: 10.3°C High: 30.0°C Rain: Trace


Friday December 22nd 2017

Low: 10.9°C High: 33.8°C Rain: 0mm


Saturday December 23rd 2017

Low: 12.9°C High: 33.7°C Rain: 0mm


An extended spell of fairly settled summer weather; the 2017 Summer Solstice took place here in Melbourne on Thursday at 3:27am.

Basically a run of cool mornings with dew, followed by warm to hot, mostly sunny afternoons perfect for spending outdoors! smile

We had a very stunning sunset last night. smile
https://www.instagram.com/p/BdB0halApct/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

The cold front/trough that's brushing us atm is bringing muggy, mostly cloudy conditions but no storms, only light spitting showers.

Currently around 26°C.

Edit: it seems my car did sustain some very, VERY slight damage from the hailstorm on Tuesday, but only one or two small dents. My sister's car was hit a bit harder. But overall, it was nothing compared to the destruction we suffered on March 6th 2010, so we were very lucky.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (23/12/2017 17:17)

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#1445630 - 24/12/2017 10:13 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Nothing registered out of last nights front.
With a max of 30c up here.

Currently a nice brisk southerly blowing
And 14c

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#1445633 - 24/12/2017 11:21 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cold and cloudy with fresh SSW'ly here atm.

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#1445636 - 24/12/2017 11:57 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Rain late last night but (Like you Dooga) not enough to register. A thin drizzle here past couple of hours - too light to even show on radar.

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#1445691 - 24/12/2017 21:33 Re: Vic - more Heat 15/12 - 21/12 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 14.1°C, reached a top of 23.1°C here in Belgrave today.

We had light rain last night and early this morning, but nothing that could be registered in the gauge unfortunately.

Been a very funny day weatherwise. A mix of sun and cloud; overall it was a mild to warm day, but the incessant wind made it feel at least 5°C colder! eek

At the last check it was around 14°C and mostly cloudy.

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