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#1444995 - 16/12/2017 23:39 SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Uleybury
Interesting 48-72 hours ahead for SA as a low is set to move through Late Monday/Early Tuesday morning.

Hot North to Northeasterly winds will filter into the state due to a surface trough dragging in heat with temps exceed 40 with some places pegged at 45-46 in the far north but may struggle for Adelaide giving the cloud cover to form ahead of the low otherwise clear skies would easily be 42-45 for the Adelaide area.


Superior shear with this with a good LLJ averaging 85-110km/h with good powerful shear in the mids and uppers almost clocking 280 at 300hpa so will help with lifting of parcels.


Timing:
EC favours the best of the activity in the early hours of the morning around 430-500AM for storms while GFS favours late Monday night into Early Tuesday Morning.


Rainfall:
Not too much is expected for Adelaide with maybe 2-5mm at most, more general falls of 5-10mm out west with iso of 10-20mm under thunderstorms but dries rapidly east of the ranges.

See how we go but hopefully we do get a decent early weather Christmas Present from the weather.

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#1445005 - 17/12/2017 07:55 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
The Bureau have storms on the forecast for this afternoon and tonight now.

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#1445006 - 17/12/2017 07:55 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
For Adelaide I should add.

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#1445012 - 17/12/2017 09:21 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17554
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yer apart from adding possible showers/storms to the forecast tonight they have also changed the expected max to 35C.

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#1445017 - 17/12/2017 10:20 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Yes indeed, it has a humid storm feel to the air currently

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#1445040 - 17/12/2017 19:32 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 634
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
A little bit of rain here - barely enough to wet the rain gauge me thinks though...

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#1445047 - 17/12/2017 21:36 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Should we expect storms tonight?

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#1445048 - 17/12/2017 21:56 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TranslucidusW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/11/2003
Posts: 2663
Loc: Southern Adelaide
More chance of storms Mon night Tuesday morning than tonight.
_________________________
I don't know anything . . .
Sheidow Park Weather




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#1445049 - 17/12/2017 22:15 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Radar looks interesting approaching, just watered and thought I saw lightning towards central Yorke Peninsula

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#1445052 - 17/12/2017 23:17 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Quite a nice shower here currently.

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#1445053 - 17/12/2017 23:18 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
I'm getting excited about a shower haha, must be summer :-)

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#1445055 - 18/12/2017 01:02 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 634
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
And a bit more rain falling down - very pretty in the flash-light.

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#1445059 - 18/12/2017 08:33 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Well what ya know, storms have been taken out of todays forecast haha.

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#1445067 - 18/12/2017 10:37 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14882
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer unsure about that, I'd still think there is a chance of an evening thundery shower or two, more likely over EP and YP sliding down however. Shear is very good, lift is excellent, but heat is now tempered a bit by this large cloudband from decayed cells that models haven't handled all that well. New storms should erupt over the west this arvo and filter SSE along a slow moving band along a cold front, elevated in nature.

Best chance for the Adelaide area is prob after sunset till 3-4am when things prob move east of us. Nocturnal cooling may play a part tonight so see how it goes. Not a world beating system as I am worried about upper cluter and gunk just warming the 20-25,000ft levels but should be something to see before it begins to favour more rainband later into the night.

TS cool

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#1445106 - 18/12/2017 16:22 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
I've been told around midnight for a thundery showers clearing by 2-3am

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#1445109 - 18/12/2017 16:44 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Let's see what the bureau boys have to say shorterly

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#1445111 - 18/12/2017 16:52 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Ok, that new forecast gets me a tad excited :-) :-) :-)

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#1445112 - 18/12/2017 16:53 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
And looks like my late mail was spot on with around midnight :-)

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#1445113 - 18/12/2017 16:55 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7396
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I'm excited for a temperature change...and rainfall. Both of those in combination would be great! What I don't want to hear is more about fire weather!


Edited by Seira (18/12/2017 17:01)

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#1445115 - 18/12/2017 17:08 Re: SA - Heat burst ahead of Low Pressure System Dec 17 - Dec 20 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7396
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Bring on 18-22 degree dewpoints laugh !!

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