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#1445657 - 24/12/2017 13:53 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1045
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Mad, can see a few showers here popping up to our south. Looks like a tropical summer sky atm. Maybe a bit of an uptick in the rain/storm forecast for the Granite Belt and Southern Downs for Mon and Tues. I hope something eventuates.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1445693 - 24/12/2017 22:05 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10441
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Cheers guys.

A decent storm moved through Port Macquarie a little earlier this evening. 30.6mm fell in 20 minutes (8:30-8:50pm EDT). Port was not covered by the Severe Thunderstorm Warning at the time. The storm intensified as it reached the coastal fringe. I could see the storm from here and it was producing constant lightning.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

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#1445694 - 24/12/2017 22:14 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5055
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Yes just saw the rainfall figures for Port Mac, impressive stuff. I'm sure if I take a look out the window I should see some lightning!!

Anyway here is a pic from yesterdays storm. The top of this storm was impressive. You wouldn't think that this cell was over 150ks away.
IMG_1329 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1445695 - 24/12/2017 22:22 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 578
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Xmas storms barreling in on ya Seabreeze at the moment, lightning active by the looks too - lucky you, nice captures btw !

Good show Eddy, 150k away, impressive Top !

Quite a normal summer's day 'ere, topped at 30*; mild humidity.
Tuesday looks fairly decent for the Downs & Nsw Tables, steering wind at 50+Ks hopefully drag a few closer to the coast, hoping some form a little closer = better chances, ,

Supercells seem to be quite possible, ? Some high level cloud could be evident Tues morn, tho should possibly clear out/off around the border before midday ?
Also appears rather dry in lower levels the further wst you go, particularly central Downs, west and there after ?
Just some notes on my part, All taken with some 'Salt' as well cool

HavagoodN


Edited by PlumbBob (24/12/2017 22:26)
Edit Reason: add txt
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Weather or not ?

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#1445698 - 24/12/2017 23:13 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5055
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Thanks PB, I should have mentioned that storm was just NW of Port Mac.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1445703 - 25/12/2017 05:23 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10441
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
What a spectacular night of thunderstorms it's been here!!!
First thunderstorm arrived at about 10:20pm delivering heavy to very heavy rain, very strong southerly winds (approx 90km/h), and extremely frequent lightning that varied between being constant and every second on average as it passed through. Like the Port Macquarie storm I mentioned earlier, the storm intensified as it hit the coastal fringe. After the initial line moved through, a close-by western branch of the storm complex just N/NW of town became lightning active and helped prolong the lightning show for another hour until a bit after midnight.
Second thunderstorm moved in just after 1am with moderate rain and occasional lightning. Third thunderstorm soon followed arriving a little after 1:30am bringing a moderate to heavy burst of rain, strong winds, and very frequent lightning about every two seconds on average as it moved over. 39.6mm fell altogether from the thunderstorms tonight. Glad they came through at night, you get to appreciate every single bit of lightning. Thankyou Santa!

Btw, Coffs Harbour had 96km/h wind gusts from a thunderstorm at 1:26am. The Severe Storm Warning was however cancelled at 11:58pm...

Took some photos of the first thunderstorm:
The shelf cloud approaching, and then the storm just before it hit -



Didn't take any during the strongest part of the storm. Wisely retreated back inside, until that part moved away a bit. There was a persistent and surprisingly strong NE'ly wind that developed on the backend. There were barely any lulls in the wind, so this made photography on the front patio very difficult. Missed alot of good potential shots due to having to protect the mobile from the rain, as there was no where I could stand that was protected from the wind-blown raindrops.






(^^^ nearly a good photo, you can see the branchy lightning right at the very top, but it's almost all chopped off by my phone camera's shutter, lol)

Santa turning on the hi-beams smile

_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

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#1445704 - 25/12/2017 06:58 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1580
Loc: Australia
Merry Xmas everyone, hope you all have a wonderful day, nice pics EddyG and Seabreeze keep up the great work

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#1445705 - 25/12/2017 07:03 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1580
Loc: Australia
It will be interesting to see if Northern NSW, Gold Coast and Brisbane will get a carbon copy of what Port Macquarie experienced with storms going well into the night? Access-C does not have any activity reaching the QLD coast until well after sunset

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#1445706 - 25/12/2017 07:27 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10441
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Fourth storm here at SWR came through here minutes before 6am with brief moderate rain and occasional lightning. Shortly followed by storm number five, bringing brief fat-dropped steady to moderate rain and infrequent lightning.
They were a part of the storm line that developed around three hours ago and had been thundering away up until the past 15 minutes or so, with the last bit of that line now moved offshore to our south.

Cheers Gleno. Merry Christmas to everyone, enjoy your day!
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

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#1445709 - 25/12/2017 07:59 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Merry Christmas everyone .Have a great day and take care driving and watch young ones Swimming.Nice photos Eddy G and Seabreeze .
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1445710 - 25/12/2017 08:08 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7218
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Merry Christmas everyone.

Nice pics Eddy & Seabreeze, seems although the quidge has mostly dominated QLD there's been no lack of stormage coming through just beneath it. However next week is starting to look very active as the quidge finally p1sses off and a deep inland trough replaces it.

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#1445711 - 25/12/2017 08:09 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5408
Nice Seabreeze smile

And merry xmas to everyone on here.

Yeah gleno, a number of models don't have much activity for Brisbane itself until pretty late... some as late as tonight/overnight.

The forecast soundings reveal the reason - insufficient moisture and instability until late. In fact, the night-time soundings look far better than the afternoon ones for Brisbane (athough they do develop low level capping at night behind the coastal change and the chance of severe weather such as large hail would be a bit lower at night).
Also looking very hot today with temps a number of degrees above average.

It's a different story for southern & western parts of the region though with showers and storms likely to start firing up by this afternoon in areas such as the higher ground in NE NSW (e.g. the NT's), some parts of the Downs, etc.

One of the main threats with any severe storms looks to be intense rainfall leading to some flash flooding with a strong precip signal in the models over areas like the NT's and plenty of moisture aloft.

Some patchy high cloud might drift across later this morning but I doubt it'd be enough to stop storms from forming.

Tomorrow looks dependent on what happens later today. Some outputs:





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#1445712 - 25/12/2017 08:15 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Merry Christmas everyone, hope Santa brought everyone nice pressies, feeling hot already & expected action later today will be very welcome.

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#1445714 - 25/12/2017 08:57 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5055
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Thanks everyone and Merry Xmas to all.

Great stuff Seabreeze.

Hi Ken, how far does that pink extend to the lower reaches of the Mid Nth coast/Nth Hunter?
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1445717 - 25/12/2017 10:00 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all .Time for a rest, Been cooking since 6am done now to beat the heat well be able to sit down to dinner without sweating lol.Have a great day all.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1445718 - 25/12/2017 10:21 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
GFS predicting the southerly change to reach Brisbane around 7-10pm tonight with a good dump of storm rain... Weakening as it moves north towards the Sunshine Coast overnight. Looks like a cracking storm day west of Toowoomba on boxing day!
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Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1445721 - 25/12/2017 11:26 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1207
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Fantastic pics eddy and seabreeze and merry christmas to all w'zoners smile
30C here currently, should be stinking hot by this arvo, at least the beers and the prawns will be cold! Xmas can't get much more aussie than that, a late evening thunderstorm would top it off perfectly grin grin
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1445722 - 25/12/2017 11:32 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: LightningGus]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5408
Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Fantastic pics eddy and seabreeze and merry christmas to all w'zoners smile
30C here currently, should be stinking hot by this arvo, at least the beers and the prawns will be cold! Xmas can't get much more aussie than that, a late evening thunderstorm would top it off perfectly grin grin

I think Id prefer a traditional stunning white Xmas to that lol

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#1445730 - 25/12/2017 13:47 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10441
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
44.0mm fell here in the 24 hours to 9am from six thunderstorms. Number six came through around 8:40am with brief moderate rain with only a little lightning.
Finally got some sleep a bit after 9am, lol.

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
First thunderstorm arrived at about 10:20pm delivering heavy to very heavy rain, very strong southerly winds (approx 90km/h), and extremely frequent lightning that varied between being constant and every second on average as it passed through.
Sister's friend had second storey window blown out here at SWR during storm number one. Read an unconfirmed report of a tree on a car here too.
Plenty of tree damage reports coming in from the neighbouring Nambucca/Urunga areas. Definitely a wild night.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

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#1445733 - 25/12/2017 14:07 Re: NENSW-SEQLD Troughs and strong instability over the Christmas period, 22nd to 28th Dec 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3246
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Merry xmas all hope we all get a stormy present. Though IMO i dont think my area will get anything.

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