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#1445643 - 24/12/2017 12:39 Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The last rain system for 2017? - at this stage models dont show much rain, but with increasing moisture from the NW, who knows? - some regions may see some decent storms?

GFS:


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#1445715 - 25/12/2017 09:26 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Merry Xmas everyone! May u all have
A safe and fantastic day and night!🍻🍻

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#1445716 - 25/12/2017 09:28 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
And bring on the above rain P 👍👍
Hopefully we get something out of
This next system!

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#1445723 - 25/12/2017 11:43 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
smile

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#1445747 - 25/12/2017 16:56 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
YoHoHo!! grin also.........

ACCESS seems to have fallen off the crest today, in the meantime a calm 24C is pleasant.

Another 1/2" to 1" would be real good.

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#1445790 - 25/12/2017 21:19 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Mery Christmas to all and was best cooler Christmas day since last few years.

Felt like we are in Autumn season as night time drops very cool this time of year..

As New year eve temperatures drop to 12c feels like need jumper and pants.

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#1445808 - 25/12/2017 23:11 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Merry Christmas everyone! smile

Overnight low of 12.2C, reached a top of 25.5C here in Belgrave today.

It dawned cool and overcast, but once the clouds lifted it turned into a gloriously warm, mostly sunny day with fresh gusty winds. smile

Another comfortable night ahead for sleeping, currently around 13C with twinkling stars and a crescent moon.

Looking forward to this upcoming event! Hope we get one final burst of good, soaking heavy rain and severe thunderstorm action before we say goodbye to 2017. smile

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#1445943 - 26/12/2017 19:52 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Agree CA - it was very cool out here last night too!

Going by GFS, its looking to be a "who got lucky under a storm?" type event?:


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#1445986 - 27/12/2017 10:45 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Looking at 12z models as one does when on holidays and there is a sniff of storms its still pretty confusing. Timing differences between EC, GFS and short range ACC still exist which this close to stuff happening suggests the models are struggling a little.
The ACC model is fastest along with GFS and CMC, EC little slower. For me it means I am barracking hard for EC (it was the only model that had rain when we got smacked last week, the others were dry so it has recent storm runs on the board)essentially on the other models the change is through central parts overnight Thursday or Friday am.

All models have lots of moisture at various heights and also another vigorous wind profile, so if you get these storms at peak heating particularly Friday you will potentially see some pretty good action.

Under all models the area east of Melbourne and the immediate Gippsland boundary do pretty well out of this go around. At least at 12z. Also with seabreeze and change almost a triple point type set up in this part of the world.

Anyway from late today watch the obs and visible satellite and maybe the 00z run will see the models line up on timing a little better (and preferably closer to EC ha ha)
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#1446033 - 27/12/2017 15:53 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
00Z run of short range ACC has slowed things down and prolonged the "event" into Friday night, some particularly nasty stuff now progged in NSW roughly N or NW of Yarrawonga on Friday evening on this model.
It actually has some weakish activity trough the SW this evening to central parts by morning then redeveloping tomorrow night on a 850hpa trough rather than surface so maybe some elevated storms?

Then Friday trough over central parts and plenty of moisture, as I said some real nasties just over the border.

Be interesting to see how GFS and EC 00z come out.

Meanwhile, has cracked 30 here at home with DP around 15, dry out west atm though. If ACCR is right might be some sparks started in the SW tonight.

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#1446035 - 27/12/2017 16:15 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Very stereotypical summer weather here in the Dandenongs, loving it! And with the abundance of rain there's no bushfire risk to worry about... for the moment. smile

Yesterday morning it dipped to a rather chilly 9.2C, my first single-digit minimum in nearly 3 weeks. But the afternoon was hot, dry and mostly sunny with a refreshing breeze and a top of 33.9C. smile

It was very warm last night, dipping to only 20.4C. This afternoon's top was 37.1C, so another hot, dry, mostly sunny day with some relief from the breeze; it is a little humid though.

At the last check it was still around 36C.

Latest BOM forecasts for the next 24-48 hours for my neck of the woods doesn't look all that appealing; only 10-15mm at best but hopefully we can get more than that. A few decent storms would be a nice surprise as well please...


Edited by aussiestormfreak (27/12/2017 16:23)

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#1446036 - 27/12/2017 16:18 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah hopefully see something decent
Ruckle 👍?
Heard the BoM today at lunch time and
They didn't really sound to convincing
At all of getting anything decent?
Just said if your lucky enough to jag a
Storm u could get something useful!
At this stage, my area is in the 5-10mm range
So hope that hangs on!

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#1446041 - 27/12/2017 16:48 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
GFS has slowed down a little, has some stuff in the SW tonight then tomorrow in the arvo and evening storms stretch from the far NW to eastern parts, missing the SW and most of the centre of the state. Focus on N Central and out east.
Friday trough stays around centre of state allowing some central ranges storms to get going before the east has a smattering of storms again.
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#1446079 - 27/12/2017 19:53 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks ruck👍
Hopefully those storms you mention of
Starting in the east of the state are widespread
And not mainly confined the the Rangers lol

Off topic, but this looks to be the last chance
For sometime to get something half decent
As dosent really look to be much more
Tropical link up from north in the outlook?

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#1446106 - 27/12/2017 22:23 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Has there been a melt down in Europe? EC not up on any site I look at...outflow boundary approaching central parts atm
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1446107 - 27/12/2017 22:38 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Ruckle]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5197
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Has there been a melt down in Europe? EC not up on any site I look at...outflow boundary approaching central parts atm

They lost power at the ECMWF centre and lost both supercomputers. Both running again now and the 00z is out now, but ensembles still not out that I can see.

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#1446109 - 27/12/2017 22:53 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Cheers!
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1446116 - 28/12/2017 09:28 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice mild rainy morning here😊

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#1446117 - 28/12/2017 10:10 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: KevD]
Dodoweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2009
Posts: 105
Loc: Yarra Ranges
Originally Posted By: KevD
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Has there been a melt down in Europe? EC not up on any site I look at...outflow boundary approaching central parts atm

They lost power at the ECMWF centre and lost both supercomputers. Both running again now and the 00z is out now, but ensembles still not out that I can see.


Is this why BOM forecasts havent been issued this morning?

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#1446121 - 28/12/2017 11:27 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
12Z EC still likes tomorrow evening for immediate east of Melbourne with the other models more progressive. A trace of rain or possum wee overnight and quite yuckily warm so far today 25.9/14.4 atm
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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