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#1445643 - 24/12/2017 12:39 Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The last rain system for 2017? - at this stage models dont show much rain, but with increasing moisture from the NW, who knows? - some regions may see some decent storms?

GFS:


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#1445715 - 25/12/2017 09:26 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Merry Xmas everyone! May u all have
A safe and fantastic day and night!🍻🍻

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#1445716 - 25/12/2017 09:28 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
And bring on the above rain P 👍👍
Hopefully we get something out of
This next system!

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#1445723 - 25/12/2017 11:43 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
smile

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#1445747 - 25/12/2017 16:56 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2075
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
YoHoHo!! grin also.........

ACCESS seems to have fallen off the crest today, in the meantime a calm 24C is pleasant.

Another 1/2" to 1" would be real good.

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#1445790 - 25/12/2017 21:19 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2610
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Mery Christmas to all and was best cooler Christmas day since last few years.

Felt like we are in Autumn season as night time drops very cool this time of year..

As New year eve temperatures drop to 12c feels like need jumper and pants.

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#1445808 - 25/12/2017 23:11 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Merry Christmas everyone! smile

Overnight low of 12.2C, reached a top of 25.5C here in Belgrave today.

It dawned cool and overcast, but once the clouds lifted it turned into a gloriously warm, mostly sunny day with fresh gusty winds. smile

Another comfortable night ahead for sleeping, currently around 13C with twinkling stars and a crescent moon.

Looking forward to this upcoming event! Hope we get one final burst of good, soaking heavy rain and severe thunderstorm action before we say goodbye to 2017. smile

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#1445943 - 26/12/2017 19:52 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Agree CA - it was very cool out here last night too!

Going by GFS, its looking to be a "who got lucky under a storm?" type event?:


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#1445986 - 27/12/2017 10:45 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Looking at 12z models as one does when on holidays and there is a sniff of storms its still pretty confusing. Timing differences between EC, GFS and short range ACC still exist which this close to stuff happening suggests the models are struggling a little.
The ACC model is fastest along with GFS and CMC, EC little slower. For me it means I am barracking hard for EC (it was the only model that had rain when we got smacked last week, the others were dry so it has recent storm runs on the board)essentially on the other models the change is through central parts overnight Thursday or Friday am.

All models have lots of moisture at various heights and also another vigorous wind profile, so if you get these storms at peak heating particularly Friday you will potentially see some pretty good action.

Under all models the area east of Melbourne and the immediate Gippsland boundary do pretty well out of this go around. At least at 12z. Also with seabreeze and change almost a triple point type set up in this part of the world.

Anyway from late today watch the obs and visible satellite and maybe the 00z run will see the models line up on timing a little better (and preferably closer to EC ha ha)
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#1446033 - 27/12/2017 15:53 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
00Z run of short range ACC has slowed things down and prolonged the "event" into Friday night, some particularly nasty stuff now progged in NSW roughly N or NW of Yarrawonga on Friday evening on this model.
It actually has some weakish activity trough the SW this evening to central parts by morning then redeveloping tomorrow night on a 850hpa trough rather than surface so maybe some elevated storms?

Then Friday trough over central parts and plenty of moisture, as I said some real nasties just over the border.

Be interesting to see how GFS and EC 00z come out.

Meanwhile, has cracked 30 here at home with DP around 15, dry out west atm though. If ACCR is right might be some sparks started in the SW tonight.

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#1446035 - 27/12/2017 16:15 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Very stereotypical summer weather here in the Dandenongs, loving it! And with the abundance of rain there's no bushfire risk to worry about... for the moment. smile

Yesterday morning it dipped to a rather chilly 9.2C, my first single-digit minimum in nearly 3 weeks. But the afternoon was hot, dry and mostly sunny with a refreshing breeze and a top of 33.9C. smile

It was very warm last night, dipping to only 20.4C. This afternoon's top was 37.1C, so another hot, dry, mostly sunny day with some relief from the breeze; it is a little humid though.

At the last check it was still around 36C.

Latest BOM forecasts for the next 24-48 hours for my neck of the woods doesn't look all that appealing; only 10-15mm at best but hopefully we can get more than that. A few decent storms would be a nice surprise as well please...


Edited by aussiestormfreak (27/12/2017 16:23)

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#1446036 - 27/12/2017 16:18 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah hopefully see something decent
Ruckle 👍?
Heard the BoM today at lunch time and
They didn't really sound to convincing
At all of getting anything decent?
Just said if your lucky enough to jag a
Storm u could get something useful!
At this stage, my area is in the 5-10mm range
So hope that hangs on!

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#1446041 - 27/12/2017 16:48 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
GFS has slowed down a little, has some stuff in the SW tonight then tomorrow in the arvo and evening storms stretch from the far NW to eastern parts, missing the SW and most of the centre of the state. Focus on N Central and out east.
Friday trough stays around centre of state allowing some central ranges storms to get going before the east has a smattering of storms again.
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#1446079 - 27/12/2017 19:53 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks ruck👍
Hopefully those storms you mention of
Starting in the east of the state are widespread
And not mainly confined the the Rangers lol

Off topic, but this looks to be the last chance
For sometime to get something half decent
As dosent really look to be much more
Tropical link up from north in the outlook?

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#1446106 - 27/12/2017 22:23 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Has there been a melt down in Europe? EC not up on any site I look at...outflow boundary approaching central parts atm
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#1446107 - 27/12/2017 22:38 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Ruckle]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5197
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Has there been a melt down in Europe? EC not up on any site I look at...outflow boundary approaching central parts atm

They lost power at the ECMWF centre and lost both supercomputers. Both running again now and the 00z is out now, but ensembles still not out that I can see.

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#1446109 - 27/12/2017 22:53 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Cheers!
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#1446116 - 28/12/2017 09:28 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice mild rainy morning here😊

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#1446117 - 28/12/2017 10:10 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: KevD]
Dodoweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2009
Posts: 105
Loc: Yarra Ranges
Originally Posted By: KevD
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Has there been a melt down in Europe? EC not up on any site I look at...outflow boundary approaching central parts atm

They lost power at the ECMWF centre and lost both supercomputers. Both running again now and the 00z is out now, but ensembles still not out that I can see.


Is this why BOM forecasts havent been issued this morning?

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#1446121 - 28/12/2017 11:27 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
12Z EC still likes tomorrow evening for immediate east of Melbourne with the other models more progressive. A trace of rain or possum wee overnight and quite yuckily warm so far today 25.9/14.4 atm
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#1446124 - 28/12/2017 12:02 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2075
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Not confident that this fairly fast moving front tonight will drop much here (Central Gippsland) unless we get lucky.

Meanwhile some mini showers that are barely enough to wet the concrete paths, cool, calm and cloudy today.

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#1446126 - 28/12/2017 12:29 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2610
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hurray up drop temperatures at night as hard sleep.

Looks very dry for Victoria as Cyclone in WA is hopeless not bring any moist to SE Australia.

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#1446129 - 28/12/2017 12:34 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I think I'll side with local BOM forecast for possible storms later today, and into tonight, eastward movers - if Accr is correct:


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#1446133 - 28/12/2017 14:39 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Absolutely feral conditions outside! mad

Very hot night, with a minimum of only 22.2C; even at midnight it was still 28C no thanks to cloudcover and northerly winds. Thank goodness for the air-conditioning, which ensured I had a very comfortable night sleep. smile

Peaked at 36.3C here in Belgrave earlier this afternoon. It's around 31C atm, sweaty and overcast but only with light showers on radar at best. frown

A good soaking downpour or even a decent storm would be much appreciated right now.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (28/12/2017 14:42)

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#1446138 - 28/12/2017 16:31 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
BOM seems to be a little more keen for dangerous weather across the Central/Eastern two-thirds of Victoria tomorrow...

https://twitter.com/BOM_Vic/status/946245864183525376

Latest Melbourne forecast for tomorrow calls for the possibility of severe thunderstorms. smile

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#1446145 - 28/12/2017 17:22 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2610
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like storms in uppers but looks too dry as i believe more Virga is more bad luck...

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#1446149 - 28/12/2017 18:00 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Despite light rain at times this morning, no direct sunshine, we managed to get to 35C in muggy windless conditions.

It will be an oppressive night tonight here if we dont get a storm.

Nothing exciting looming out over the back fence atm, so better chance that I wont get distracted and burn the chops when I fire the barbasaurus up soon.

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#1446150 - 28/12/2017 18:04 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Fantastic looking shower just formed to my west and has now passed to my south without a drop here. 29.3 for a high today with DP in the mid teens and not much wind, a little bit of wind from the south as I type out the back of that cell.
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#1446152 - 28/12/2017 18:17 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Getting cooler now... thank goodness! Might need to open the windows soon. Currently around 22C and falling. smile

Still overcast and kinda hazy out there. But I wasn't paying attention to the radar until now; I gave up hope of seeing even a shower. But there's a cluster or showers and thunderstorms heading towards Melbourne from the Ballarat/Daylesford direction! smile

Hope they make it across the Bay into the Dandenongs! Just hoping it's not high-based nonsense with virga. frown

Maybe a sign of what's to come tomorrow? wink


Edited by aussiestormfreak (28/12/2017 18:17)

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#1446156 - 28/12/2017 18:45 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
That storm over Melbourne's northern and western suburbs looks like it's heading straight for us here in the Dandenong Ranges! Hope it strikes us head-on!! =D

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#1446159 - 28/12/2017 19:00 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hope u get the cells ASF 👍
Looks like they could be showing signs
Of weakening ?

Be suprised if they make it out to me? Lol

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#1446160 - 28/12/2017 19:00 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Are they high based and fairly dry or
Plenty of juice ?

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#1446166 - 28/12/2017 19:33 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Too hard to say Doogasnow. The southerly winds that are coming up from Bass Strait have brought an ugly scudfest, so I can't get a visual on any storm structure. Even without it the view to my northwest wasn't great, it was too cloudy and hazy to get a good visual of the approaching storms, even though it did look somewhat dark. The storms are weakening on radar anyway. poke

We did get a few distant rumbles of thunder as the storms approached, but now all we're getting is light/moderate rain. It actually started spitting around 20 minutes before the storms arrived. They should be gone in the next 5-10 minutes or so.

On a somewhat more positive note, it's definitely getting cooler! Currently 19.6C and falling. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (28/12/2017 19:35)

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#1446172 - 28/12/2017 20:12 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Dead calm 27c here. Overcast but non inspiring gloom out to our West.

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#1446182 - 28/12/2017 20:35 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2075
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Nice bit of action over Licola at the mo, headed S/E towards us, just what we need grin

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR683.loop.shtml

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#1446184 - 28/12/2017 20:51 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hope u get that line of storms samboz!!
Looks impressive on radar!

Thought we were in judging by the radar tonight,
But that nice little band that hit Melb absolutely
Disiniagrated and didn't give a drop!!😨😨
Nothing at all this morning either lol

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#1446189 - 28/12/2017 21:08 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2075
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Really getting into it out there dooga, I was looking at opposing wind on the radar and wondered, guess it has generated some serious energy out that way.

It looks to be passing to the East of Sale/Maffra.

https://www.lightningmaps.org/

Have to be some fires out of this episode, including numerous strikes in Pine Plantations.


Edited by samboz (28/12/2017 21:16)

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#1446199 - 28/12/2017 21:41 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Did u get much out of storm samboz?

U could be right regarding lightning strike
Trouble up in the bush!! Dosent look like
It's dropping a lot of rain, with moornapa
Only getting 3.6mm

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#1446202 - 28/12/2017 21:46 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2075
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Zero in Sale, clean miss which was probably a good thing given the hundreds of CG's whistling about.

Can't remember this much concentrated CG in recent years, pretty unique.

The front is on HOLLANDS LANDING at this stage, multiple strikes there and BENGWORDEN.

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#1446228 - 29/12/2017 08:46 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
0.4mm overnight from some pitter patter rain around midnight and fog. Real unstable looking sky atm, big fun day for parts of the east today
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#1446231 - 29/12/2017 09:48 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
We got 3mm from overnight showers. Good lightning show to our north last night.

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#1446232 - 29/12/2017 09:59 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
After some light variable winds it seems to have settled down to NE wind here and pressure drop off over last hour or so. I am on the fun side of the trough at least for now, lots of weak convection and showers to my NW so no real cap perhaps today (a more normal VIC day) trough appears to be NW to SE across state.
Nice looking sky 23.4/18.3 currently
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#1446233 - 29/12/2017 10:21 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Not sure what's going to happen today?
A lot of low and mid level cloud that's keeping
Things cool! No sun at all to get things
Bubbling. If it stays overcast we may not
Get a good storm??

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#1446238 - 29/12/2017 11:10 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Very light shower here, grass wet, concrete dry and sun out again, DP cracked 19 with the sprinkle, pretty gross for these parts - hope we get rewarded for it.
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#1446243 - 29/12/2017 12:40 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 16.5C. A cool, damp, overcast start to the day here in Belgrave with sprinkling showers last night. I also caught glimpses of a brief but beautiful sunset despite the foggy, cloudy conditions yesterday evening. smile

The scudfest retreated southwards and lifted after 11am. Still mostly cloudy with the occasional light shower but also with sunny breaks, very humid and getting warmer! Currently around 25C. smile

Also unstable, so definitely a chance for some great storms this afternoon and evening! smile

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#1446254 - 29/12/2017 13:44 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2610
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The cyclone dumping humid all way to SE Australia. And i really hate the narrow High pressure moving to West Victoria leaving the low pressure in bright away from us...


Edited by chasers addict (29/12/2017 13:46)

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#1446256 - 29/12/2017 14:14 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Could almost describe it as foggy in N Gippy during the later morning. Currently calm muggy cloudy 24C.

Looking forward to what the troughline brings later on (currently slanting in across Horsham/Ararat/Colac).

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#1446260 - 29/12/2017 15:45 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Wind has gone to S or SSE in the last 10 mins or so and freshening now. Pretty sure I just heard thunder. Still no precip today other than earlier drizzle showers. Hope we can get something measurable before this stuff heads east and really gets going. YAY more thunder

Edit: Quite a lot of thunder actually. No rain though, think we might miss out somewhat on that front here at home but a quite a bit around


Edited by Ruckle (29/12/2017 15:51)
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#1446262 - 29/12/2017 15:54 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2610
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Tow fast moving storms in my North and SW

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#1446264 - 29/12/2017 16:05 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
And again
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26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1446265 - 29/12/2017 16:09 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2610
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Miss it, a loop hole for my town

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#1446267 - 29/12/2017 16:28 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Flooding down here at times, I am almost as wrong as the fishman
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1446269 - 29/12/2017 16:35 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
Geez that storm to the west of Tallarook is incredibly lightning active!!

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#1446273 - 29/12/2017 17:18 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2075
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Talking to a farmer at Boisdale today, reported 25mm late yesterday when it came over, said it flooded out everywhere under verandahs etc.

Another at Llowalong with 8mm in 1/4hr as it went over.

Mt Moornapa had 9.2mm, just had to be under the wet bits passing by!

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#1446277 - 29/12/2017 18:00 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Finally just had a nice storm roll through 😀
Heavy rain for probably 5-10min I reckon
Maybe 5-6mm??
Looks like a bit more to come to

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#1446278 - 29/12/2017 18:09 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey gang! That was a bit of fun, yet another direct-hit for us here in Belgrave... as usual! lol wink

Peaked at 27.0C around lunchtime. Since midday it's been overcast, and it stayed very warm and muggy up until around 3pm when cooler air and the first showers finally arrived. The rain lasted around an hour, falling in moderately heavy bursts at times.

Once the rain stopped, it became very foggy with virtually no wind whatsoever. Without the radar it wouldn't been impossible to tell that a thunderstorm was on its way! poke crazy

Rain resumed ahead of the impending storm front just after 4:30pm, and 20 minutes later the thunder started up, rumbling on average once or two a minute. The rain became somewhat heavier and just after 5pm it suddenly turned very dark.

The main storm finally burst upon us at 5:09pm and lasted around 15 minutes. The fog layer prevented me from seeing any cumulonimbus storm structure unfortunately, but I saw one or two flashes of lightning. Otherwise it was frequent thunder with torrential rain, but very little wind. smile

The storm front cleared at about 5:25pm, with the rain and thunder gradually easily and ceasing by 5:40pm.

Collected 10.5mm of rain so far today (8.4mm during the storm, 2.1mm from the preceding shower activity), with a peak rainfall rate of 84.8mm/hr during the height of the storm.

The fog has lifted, but it's still overcast out there. Currently around 18C.

Still a few showers nearby and we're getting light rain once more, so hopefully a couple more millimetres over the next hour or so. My December 2017 total is now 174.9mm! =D

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#1446280 - 29/12/2017 18:12 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
50mm in 30 minutes at Seymour. Don't think anyone watching the radar will be too surprised by that.

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#1446285 - 29/12/2017 19:00 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Yep Seymour radar was quite epic.

11.8mm here from the afternoon rumbles. Just missed out on a second go in the last half hour. Imagine just to my north has got a bigger total.
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#1446286 - 29/12/2017 19:14 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
A well needed 22mm here so far 😀
Prolong the bushfires risk for another week
Or two

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#1446293 - 29/12/2017 20:19 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2075
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
17mm @ Sale, very nice to be under a good downpour.

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#1446316 - 30/12/2017 10:56 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Another 17.5mm from evening storm and clearing band, to add to the 3mm we got in a storm the night before. smile

I see Traralgon got 44mm - enough for water damage in the larger buildings?

Got a report of 32.75mm at Sale last night and 35mm at Stockdale/Munro.

....all thanks to a NWest cloudband. The developing La Nina has been kind to Gippsland this December.

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#1446326 - 30/12/2017 13:10 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2610
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had 2mm yesterday and in good mood Today had good sleep and lovely of 22c...

The next system next weekend looks same repeat kicking the bright low pressure away...

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#1446542 - 31/12/2017 17:45 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My post for the final weekend of the year... smile


Saturday December 30th 2017

Low: 13.0C High: 21.6C Rain: 12.6mm


Sunday December 31st 2017

Low: 10.2C High: 30.2C Rain: Trace


We had a few more showers follow behind the main storm front on Friday afternoon/evening and early into Saturday morning. So the event total now stands at 12.6mm, bringing my December 2017 total to 177.0mm. smile

Very foggy with drizzle on Friday evening btw; I got soaked while taking a brief evening stroll. poke


It was cool to mild and breezy yesterday, and for the most part it was overcast as well.

We had a few more showers come through around lunchtime with the passage of a weak cold front. No measurable precipitation unfortunately, even though the rain was moderately heavy at times, but the heaviest showers only lasted about 15-20 minutes or so. After an hour, the rain cleared off.

Plenty of low cloud hugging the Dandenongs yesterday afternoon in the wake of the front.

Late-afternoon the skies began clearing up, and I got to enjoy some lovely sunshine while in the City during the evening. But at about sunset the wind made it feel quite chilly, so luckily I had a windcheater and jeans. smile


As for today, it's been a cool and mostly cloudy start. The afternoon's been hot, dry and mostly sunny, albeit with high cloud and refreshing breezes. Plus a daily temperature spread of exactly 20C. Perfect for the final day for the year! smile

Currently around 28C.

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#1446552 - 31/12/2017 18:35 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
30 degrees?
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1446735 - 01/01/2018 20:51 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
A late posting to this thread.

Thurs night we were side-swiped by the thunderstorm Petros and Samboz have referred to. Lots of fairly distant flashing and just a bit of noise. When the storm passed I thought the rain was finished but it continued - more or less all night. Left without checking the gauge on Friday morning; returned late last night. When I checked the gauge ... 35mm !!!!! Neighbour confirmed that the recording as accurate ... 35mm!!!!!!

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#1446776 - 02/01/2018 09:13 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep TB, nice, and we nearly doubled our average December rainfall here at Maffra helped by those two events.

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#1446781 - 02/01/2018 10:02 Re: Vic - warm and humid ahead of a (thundery?) change 27-30/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2075
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Nice top up for the area TB grin

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