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#1445872 - 26/12/2017 14:44 Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Tropical low 92S got a bit of circulation happeneing although not strong.

Feeding off the monsoonal trough and maintaining good wind shear around circulation .
Main problem in the short term will be how close it tracks towards to the coast.

Then basically how far out to sea it will go and get the energy it will need to be able to intensify into a weak TC before crossing the coast between Sandfire and south of Pt Hedland.

According to models dry air may wrap around from the west and northern edges and reduce further development of the system before it makes landfall.




Edited by Mick10 (27/12/2017 21:30)
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#1445874 - 26/12/2017 14:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

BOM warning 8.50am WST.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 165 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 122.5 degrees East, estimated to be 430 kilometres north of Broome and 375 kilometres north northwest of Derby.

Movement: slow moving.


A low is developing off the west Kimberley coast. The low is likely to form into a tropical cyclone later on Wednesday as it moves towards the south southwest.

Hazards:

Gales may occur along the coast from Beagle Bay to Broome as early as Wednesday evening, or more likely on Thursday morning. Gales may extend down the coast during Thursday as the system approaches the east Pilbara coast. Gales are possible at Port Hedland on Thursday night if the system takes a more westerly track.
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#1445882 - 26/12/2017 15:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1616
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Cheers Desieboy - if it can ride out the ridge it could get interesting but its way to weak atm - looks like a mid Cat 2

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#1445886 - 26/12/2017 15:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Its doing a bit of spinning atm mainly being enhanced on the Eastern side though.

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#1445898 - 26/12/2017 17:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I reckon BOMs first track map was 130kms out. Which if it follows BOMs overall direction to the SSW will have it hitting just inside Cape Leveque/Cygnet Bay area which then would be down through The Dampier Peninsula and then struggling to get offshore and being named at all. Will Hilda live to see another day/month. Kind of hard to really determine exact location of the LOW though at this early stage but interesting to see what their next update will show. I certainly don't see the rotation originating in the place they did.
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#1445909 - 26/12/2017 18:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1616
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Popeye
I reckon BOMs first track map was 130kms out. Which if it follows BOMs overall direction to the SSW will have it hitting just inside Cape Leveque/Cygnet Bay area which then would be down through The Dampier Peninsula and then struggling to get offshore and being named at all. Will Hilda live to see another day/month. Kind of hard to really determine exact location of the LOW though at this early stage but interesting to see what their next update will show. I certainly don't see the rotation originating in the place they did.


Agree, looks more like a monsoon flow arrival than a true tropical low atm.

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#1445922 - 26/12/2017 19:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Latest BOM map has it in what seems to be a better place. Lots of deep convection in the Kimberley region. Now lets see if it can consolidate itself into something worthy of a WA TC.
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#1445933 - 26/12/2017 19:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1616
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Starting to really form a CDO so the LLCC is starting to align with the strongest convection - should really get going overnight Id think and we should wake up to. Cat 1 TC.

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#1445982 - 27/12/2017 10:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Cable Beach
Well it is a bit overcast today. The wind has just started to pick up, but nothing to get excited about. I am concerned that if the low travels to the east of us we won't even get much rain out of it. Lets see

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#1446004 - 27/12/2017 12:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
Wow this low really does look nice on Broome radar ATM. Seems more doubtful that it will push off the coast even though last few frames seem to show new bands wrapping around off coast around Beagle Bay.... By the way Woolies is still open at this stage but they are not sure when they will close.

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#1446008 - 27/12/2017 12:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Yes Sepo some good gust coming through from the East 60km/hr so far but will get stronger .Bands of rain coming from the North East is going to generate a nice drop or two...
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#1446012 - 27/12/2017 12:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome
Bom Warning

Cape Leveque to Wallal on Yellow alert ...includes Broome ofcourse..

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.0 degrees South 122.6 degrees East, estimated to be 115 kilometres north northeast of Broome and 75 kilometres south southwest of Cape Leveque.

Movement: south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.


A tropical low north of Broome is expected to move back over water during Wednesday and may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Wednesday or overnight into Thursday. On Thursday night the low is likely to be over land and weakening as it moves inland.

Hazards:

Gales may occur along the coast from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga during Wednesday if the low develops into a tropical cyclone. Gales may extend down the coast towards De Grey during Thursday as the system approaches the east Pilbara coast.


Heavy rain is expected over parts of the west Kimberley during Wednesday, extending into the east Pilbara on Thursday.


Tides may be higher than expected between Cape Leveque and Broome during Wednesday.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1446014 - 27/12/2017 12:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

BOM track changed a bit, could be all over by this time tomorrow,after a brief existence as a Cat 1 and crossing just north of Sandfire.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1446015 - 27/12/2017 12:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
BOM MSLP chart now showing 988hpa! overland? I guess that's why we are on yellow alert - if it gets off the coast it will bomb...

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#1446016 - 27/12/2017 12:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1616
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
One of those annoying coast huggers - but they can often deliver better rainfall totals than TC's. Satpic looks impressive though.

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#1446019 - 27/12/2017 13:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Fun day ahead crew. Enjoy and hope it puts on some good rains and interesting weather.
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#1446022 - 27/12/2017 13:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: Kino]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome
Originally Posted By: Kino
One of those annoying coast huggers - but they can often deliver better rainfall totals than TC's. Satpic looks impressive though.

Rather have an annoying coast hugger than a Cat 3 plus at my doorstep Kino .After experiencing a few major TCs it aint much fun when you cop the brunt of it.
Especially the damage that can be sustained.

Nice incoming rain band heading our way in about an hour..
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1446028 - 27/12/2017 14:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: Sepo]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Cable Beach
Woolies will be open till an early close. My son got called in to start at 3pm. smile

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#1446030 - 27/12/2017 15:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome
Bom Technical info from 10am WST.

REMARKS:
Low centre located using Broome radar. The system centre went over Lombadina
earlier this morning with a marked lull in winds followed by a change in wind
direction. Minimum pressure was around 986hPa. 135.8mm of rainfall was recorded
from 0900 Tuesday to 0809 Wednesday [AWST].

Model guidance is consistent in indicating a south southwest track, but with the
oblique angle of approach to the coastline a small deviation will make a
signficant difference to the amount of time spent over water. SSTs and shear are
favourable and the limiting factor is likely to be time over water.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1446031 - 27/12/2017 15:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Hilda (92S) - December 2017 [Re: desieboy]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Good old Woolies that's why there the fresh food people.... wink

Just went for a drive to Roebuck Roadhouse pissing down there ..

Had a big wind gust hit on the way back and pushed car to the side of the road.

Raining steady here now.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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