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#1472152 - 05/10/2018 19:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Petros


Nice put down Mike. ....but having read it several times, dont actually understand what you were attacking me over? My knowledge of sea levels during ESNO events mirrors several presentations on ENSO that are easily googled. Maybe start with our own BOM's animations?



The point is your knowledge of what the sea level should do during ENSO events is a model. A model is an expectation/prediction of what will happen given a certain set of circumstances. Some models are very simple, and others have so many calculations in them that they need to be done on a computer. All models. You haven't really said anything about what you expect from sea levels and how current sea levels are different from what expected so I can't say much about how good your model of how sea levels should behave is. My observations on the current WWB come from direct measurements made from TAO/TRITON network of buoys. So Kino's next comment that reality shows no WWB when the models do, and that he expected someone, presumably me, to argue that we should believe the model over the observations is totally backwards.



Jeez Mike, let me re-read this on another day and try to understand where you are coming from. My model on SSL's? - I just go by the reference to sea levels W & E sides of the Pacific that various animations/explanation of ESNO show (google it - and post a link to one that verifies what you are trying to say). Are you saying higher sea levels near Aus are El Nino symptoms??

I'm not attacking your intelligence. Wish you would'nt expose my own lack of so publically but.


Edited by Petros (05/10/2018 19:42)

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#1472154 - 05/10/2018 20:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Petros
Picking up on the peak pressure of the recent highs Mega, has anyone else wondered why we went through the "High Pressure Season" (winter) with pathetic levels of high pressures observed during this winter? - despite the drought.

I only recorded 1032 hPa late June as the max pressure here to date. Normally the frosty highs are 1035 - 1042 hPa in N Gippsland during a typical winter.

Mega, what do you mean by "high so early". Post equinox, wouldnt you expect weaker high pressure values looming as we head into the sub-continent E-W "weak sausage high's" typical of summer?


The strength. A 1036hpa high is stupidly strong for October as it is for November / December. It's even worse when they just sit there for weeks and don't move because it ruins our storm season and ramps up the ocean heat over the Tasman Sea. That, as we saw last year = bad. GFS isn't in agreement with EC on this mega-high though.

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#1472203 - 06/10/2018 10:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Mega, if we record 1036hPa here this month, that is "up there" for this time of the year.

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#1472204 - 06/10/2018 11:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest SST shows the waters around Malaysia/Indonesia heating, also in the gulf W of Darwin.

Still looks coolish out in the Pacific Nino1.2.3 area?:



Going by "Windy", the trade winds are blowing strongly across the "green (26C)" Nino1.2.3 area and onto the Nino4 surface. For my 2 bobs, while these trades persist as they are now, Nino4 area should remain near same temp, or cooler over coming days?


Edited by Petros (06/10/2018 11:08)

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#1472235 - 06/10/2018 18:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
😐

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#1472277 - 07/10/2018 12:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1444
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Nino 3.4 just hit +0.8

_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

https://www.ausweatherforum.com

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#1472279 - 07/10/2018 13:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Ignore that graph, look for averages, not single one off figures.

It is like using daily SOI figures.

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#1472280 - 07/10/2018 13:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1444
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: RC
Ignore that graph, look for averages, not single one off figures.

It is like using daily SOI figures.


I know but if your even going to get an average above 0.8 the daily has to get there first


Edited by logansi (07/10/2018 13:30)
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#1472290 - 07/10/2018 16:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
If you know then why quote it? It actually means nothing.


Edited by Kino (07/10/2018 16:10)

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#1472294 - 07/10/2018 16:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Kino
If you know then why quote it? It actually means nothing.


He has every right to post that graph. It's interesting data and still has some usefulness. If you disagree then that's your prerogative and there's a way to say it without being offensive.

Between your constant climate change denial posts and obnoxious comments like this, you clearly have no forum etiquette or respect for the rules.

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#1472295 - 07/10/2018 16:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
It means that if the index goes up a little and doesn't go back down for the rest of October then the October 3.4 monthly index is likely to be above threshold.

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#1472296 - 07/10/2018 16:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Ecause me! Itís a damn question. Iím allowed to ask questions. The hypocritical irony.

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#1472301 - 07/10/2018 17:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1231
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Kino
If you know then why quote it? It actually means nothing.


WTF happened to you that to feel good about yourself you always have to be right in your own mind and put others down...?

This forum has gone to [censored]..

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#1472302 - 07/10/2018 17:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1444
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
For cry out load all I did was post a up today chart I didn't intend to start a war come on guys......
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1472304 - 07/10/2018 17:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Youíre right, itís gone like that because people canít ask questions without personal attack. Like yours for example. Or Mikes on Petros. If you arenít in the religion, youíre auto singled out for sycophantic bullying like this.

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#1472307 - 07/10/2018 18:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
You didnít Loganisi - now back to my original Q, whatíre your thoughts re that graph? What have you seen in the daily readings thatís of interest?

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#1472308 - 07/10/2018 18:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1231
Loc: maadi Tully area
Kino, its obvious that you are very knowledgeable on the subject and have a great passion for it....it really doesn't have to be a dick measuring contest.....I'm happy to be the first to admit I don't know as much as you or Mike or some of the other guys but I'd like to learn Ö

Sometimes the way you word things seems to create somewhat of a hostile environment...I'm not afraid of people with different opinions but nobody want to be made a fool of for posting something and trying to start a discussion to learn more...sometimes our ego can get in the way....

Maybe we all (myself included) need to learn how to phrase things on the internet so as not to cause offense, because as soon as that happens then rational debate becomes impossible... smile

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#1472310 - 07/10/2018 18:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sorry, but that doesnít excuse your personal attack on me. I was simply ask a question, as stated again a number of times.

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#1472313 - 07/10/2018 18:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1231
Loc: maadi Tully area
You were not just asking a question ...your post was condescending and you intended to create offense and to make the poster feel like crap...and that right there is the problem..

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#1472314 - 07/10/2018 18:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Kino
Youíre right, itís gone like that because people canít ask questions without personal attack. Like yours for example. Or Mikes on Petros. If you arenít in the religion, youíre auto singled out for sycophantic bullying like this.


A bit of healthy debate is always fine by me. We've just got to "attack the debate" - not the person airing their views.

Regarding Mike->Petros, no worries there, I respect that fact he presents the reasoning behind his hypothesis. We are all susceptible to the odd jibe or two, .....and just need to keep it at that.

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