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#1472473 - 09/10/2018 09:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
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Perhaps we should ignore the terms El Nino and La Nina and just use the terms rainfall deficiency and plentiful.

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#1472474 - 09/10/2018 09:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
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Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: RC
Perhaps we should ignore the terms El Nino and La Nina and just use the terms rainfall deficiency and plentiful.


Over the past few years you'd be wise to.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1472477 - 09/10/2018 10:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Online   content
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Originally Posted By: ColdFront


And now you are trying to declare that this non existent "mature El Nino" is responsible for the pending rain event? Surely you are smart enough to know ElNino in Spring is synonymous with rainfall deficiency. Leave me out of your nonsense .


More nasty. I've already pointed out that I never claimed a mature el nino event existed, but you continue to attack me with this claim.

I made a comparison. Typical location of low pressure during mature el nino - out near Fiji. Location forecast for low pressure - out near Fiji. Notice the similarity?

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#1472480 - 09/10/2018 10:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Online   content
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I'm getting confused here, are we acknowledging that Fiji region is under low pressure at the moment?

I used the EC/GFS forecast views on Windy and can only see a day of 1009 hPa in that area for tomorrow, GFS none at all?:

EC:


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#1472482 - 09/10/2018 11:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Online   content
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Originally Posted By: Petros
I'm getting confused here, are we acknowledging that Fiji region is under low pressure at the moment?



It was in the forecast for day 10 a couple days ago. Don't know if its still there or if it will happen. I wasn't making a comment about what was currently happening, but pointing out a nice example of the type of thing that can happen during mature el ninos. Given current conditions it is quite reasonable to expect that the stuff that happens during mature el ninos might start to happen at least occasionally very soon, and start to happen more often towards summer.

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#1472484 - 09/10/2018 11:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Online   content
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OK - but only if we were influenced by a mature el nino, which is not the case right now - right?

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#1472489 - 09/10/2018 12:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
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Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Petros
I'm getting confused here


You are not alone. As Mega pointed out already, the same occured last year in an almost polar opposite ENSO state.

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I think this is indicative of why mature el nino is not so bad for rainfall outside the tropics.



Here tropical activity is focused a long way east out near Fiji. The deep tropical trades are blocked out near Fiji, so until the NW monsoon flow can get going later in summer the tropics are bit starved for moisture. But once tropical activity pushes this far east there is room for a nice long high pressure ridge through subtropics allowing reasonable moisture to reach the subtropical parts of Australia. Not as good as when the tropics and subtropics are both pumping in moisture, but not bad either.


There must be anther Mike Hauber in here. Not your post? I'm fairly certain it uses a forecast chart that is dated in October 2018 so you are clearly trying to link the two.

Funny that you were quick to jump all over the fact BoM had not qualified a LaNina last October when we had a major rain outbreak in an attempt to distance the conditions in the Pacific at that time from a cool event. The double standard is incredible.

What you wrote is either intentionally misleading or you missed the effect of past El Nino events "outside the tropics" in Spring.

Anyone that challenges your view is nasty. Even poor old Petros copped a condescending and patronising spray yet somehow you are the victim whenever someone disagrees with your opinion.

(my bold)
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1472493 - 09/10/2018 12:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Online   content
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Yes I mentioned mature el nino. We already established that. What you have missed is that the post is a comparison of conditions to mature el nino. Nowhere does anything like we are currently in appear in that post in connection with mature el nino

How many times do I have say that before you figure it out?

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#1472494 - 09/10/2018 12:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Sillybanter Offline
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Well Mike I understood the meaning behind your post and thought it was a worthwhile contribution given the current conditions and the forecast for the next week or so.
And to just add a comment to the people who are saying that this happened in October last year so don't get excited. If this October turns out to be as wet as last it will be a massive change from the weather over the last 6 months and very welcome by many.

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#1472496 - 09/10/2018 12:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Online   content
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Originally Posted By: Petros
OK - but only if we were influenced by a mature el nino, which is not the case right now - right?


I think we are close enough to a mature el nino for this pattern to start happening more often, but not to the same extent as for a mature el nino.

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#1472512 - 09/10/2018 14:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
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Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
I think a difference can be established between this year and last year. Last year big rains in October 2017 rainfall was more or less constricted to Queensland and Desert WA and around average and below average for much of the rest of the country. That was a point where we were sitting on the verge of a La Nina. The atmospheric setting is far different compared to last year as we sit on the verge of an El Nino and with a Positive IOD about to be established on top of that. Also the rainfall this year is seeming to be more widespread, with most states likely to receive good rains looking at forecasts.

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#1472523 - 09/10/2018 15:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
I remember the big October rains in the lead in to the 2011 La Nina albeit in October 2010 the Nino 3.4 value was sitting at -1.4.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1472524 - 09/10/2018 15:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
logansi Online   content
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BOM enso forecast lifts from watch to alert

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to El Niño ALERT. This means there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in 2018—around triple the normal likelihood. Similarly, in the Indian Ocean, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have started.

When combined, these two events in spring increase the possibility of a dry and warm end to the year. It also raises the risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather in the south, but reduces the risk of tropical cyclone activity in the north.

The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed in recent weeks due to weakening of the trade winds, while the Southern Oscillation Index has fallen to typical El Niño levels. Models suggest further warming of the Pacific is likely. Four of eight models predict El Niño thresholds will likely be exceeded in the coming months, with another two falling just short.

In the Indian Ocean, there are signs that a positive IOD is currently underway. The IOD index has exceeded the threshold (+0.4 °C) for the last four weeks. However, these values must persist until November for it to be considered a positive IOD event. Model outlooks suggest positive IOD values are likely to continue through the austral spring, before returning to neutral values in late November to December.
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#1472561 - 09/10/2018 18:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Sillybanter]
Petros Online   content
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Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
Well Mike I understood the meaning behind your post and thought it was a worthwhile contribution given the current conditions and the forecast for the next week or so.
And to just add a comment to the people who are saying that this happened in October last year so don't get excited. If this October turns out to be as wet as last it will be a massive change from the weather over the last 6 months and very welcome by many.


Dont understand, I posted above that the low pressure mentioned is not currently modelled????

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#1472563 - 09/10/2018 18:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Online   content
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Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Petros
OK - but only if we were influenced by a mature el nino, which is not the case right now - right?


I think we are close enough to a mature el nino for this pattern to start happening more often, but not to the same extent as for a mature el nino.


....so you are expecting good October rains for much of Aus SE?

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#1472566 - 09/10/2018 19:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Online   content
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Thanks all for todays posts. For me, I'll register myself as "alerted - not alarmed".

....not when Aus synoptics look like this:


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#1472596 - 09/10/2018 21:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Online   content
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Originally Posted By: Petros

....so you are expecting good October rains for much of Aus SE?


Normal el nino influence is for rains to improve for most of NSW and subtropical Qld through Spring. Tropical Qld and Vic/Tas have to wait more towards summer before dry conditions ease. IOD also looks poor for Vic/SA but thats not really my thing.

The Polar Vortex seems to have been extending in Australia'ss direction a lot in the last couple months. Lots of upper troughs seem to be giving SEQ a pretty good start to the storm season, and I'd imagine it would be helping SE Australia as well. Don't know why this is happening or how long it will continue for.

See the big area of blue anomalies on this 90 day chart representing more frequent upper troughing in Australia's region.



I remember commenting back last year that there was a 3-node pattern, whereas the longwave trough is usually described as alternating between 4 or 5 nodes. ENSO tends to set one node in SE Pacific, and the 3 node pattern seems to set up a favorable node near Australia for El nino instead of peak upper troughing being near NZ and SE Indian Ocean in a 4 node pattern.

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#1472602 - 09/10/2018 21:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2637
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
You keep comparing things to something that does not exist at this stage. This is not even a El Niño, so how can it be compared to such? It can easily be argued that the last few weeks weather has nothing to do with ENSO. And when have we had a mature or normal El Niño in early October? Usually they reach their peaks in peak summer.

Where did the rainfall improve here?


The BoM also don’t say that there’s no impact on rainfall
Originally Posted By: BoM
When combined, these two events in spring increase the possibility of a dry and warm end to the year. It also raises the risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather in the south, but reduces the risk of tropical cyclone activity in the north.


Edited by Kino (09/10/2018 21:54)

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#1472623 - 10/10/2018 08:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Online   content
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Registered: 13/07/2007
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Originally Posted By: Kino
You keep comparing things to something that does not exist at this stage. This is not even a El Niño, so how can it be compared to such?


By opening your eyes and having a look. Just because BOM haven't declared el nino conditions doesn't mean the similarities go away. They have declared an alert. Why would they do that if there were no similarities between current and el nino conditions?

Originally Posted By: Kino
It can easily be argued that the last few weeks weather has nothing to do with ENSO. And when have we had a mature or normal El Niño in early October? Usually they reach their peaks in peak summer.

Where did the rainfall improve here?


82/83 is one el nino event. Generally the rainfall patterns for el nino during winter:



Strong impact, even though in most el ninos el nino thresholds are not reached in winter.

Then for spring:



Obvious improvement over much of NSW and southern Qld. Normal rainfall through coastal NSW and some of SEQ.

Originally Posted By: Kino

The BoM also don’t say that there’s no impact on rainfall
Originally Posted By: BoM
When combined, these two events in spring increase the possibility of a dry and warm end to the year. It also raises the risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather in the south, but reduces the risk of tropical cyclone activity in the north.


And for summer average el nino rainfall shows average to above average rainfall for NSW and much of Qld, but still significant deficiencies in tropical north. I never said no impact overall, but did say little to no impact for these areas.



And finally an updated comparison of current conditions against same date 2009:





We currently have more surface warmth and more subsurface warmth then 2009. Is this comparison somehow invalid because BOM havent' declared an el nino yet?


Edited by Mike Hauber (10/10/2018 08:11)

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#1472626 - 10/10/2018 08:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Online   content
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And to compare current conditions against other el nino events. (no images because I don't like thread with lots of images). Not even same ballpark as 97 or 15. Comfortably cooler than 2002. Comfortably warmer than 06 except in the far east. Also definitely warmer than borderline years 14, 03 (except in far east) and 04.

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