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#1472627 - 10/10/2018 08:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2842
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
So, you’re comparing warm neutral conditions to a moderate to strong classic El Niño? And now you’re saying El Ninos improve rainfall?

The current drought in Aus has nothing to do with what may develop later this year, especially seeing it started under a declared La Niña. Clearly, something else is driving our climate.

And to claim that El Niño’s enhance rain is just absurd, even the BoM don’t attribute that, they say it’s effects are weaker at certain tipping points allowing other influences.

And the recent spate of wet weather has nothing to do with ENSO as the moisture came from the west , despite a developing posture IOD (again, clearly indicating something else is driving the climate atm).


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#1472629 - 10/10/2018 08:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3449
Loc: Buderim
Maybe you should try comparing the current conditions against 2009 you might learn something.

Everything you said has already been clearly refuted in the previous post. Read it.

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#1472630 - 10/10/2018 08:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2842
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Can’t see any similarity





Edited by Kino (10/10/2018 08:49)

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#1472634 - 10/10/2018 09:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18728
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Just because BOM haven't declared el nino conditions doesn't mean the similarities go away.


...and yet last year you continually argued against the influence, repeatedly trying to make the point last year the effects from a La Nina ocean pattern which had an alert issued at this time a year ago were negligible due to the late start despite THIS and yet now you are claiming the current rainfall event is due to El Nino despite the same late start and same alert status? I am betting this current event won't show the low decile numbers your Spring "AVERAGE" map displays.

You have "average" and "normal" confused again. There is no "normal" El Nino as they all affect us differently as Kino demonstrated. It's little wonder the word "agenda" is used freely. The unfortunate part of showing a map that "AVERAGES" 12 events is that despite those being listed as the 12 strongest it includes relatively weak events which actually enhance rainfall in NSW in Spring in particular due to favourable conditions for thunderstorm development. Despite this it still shows a deficiency and does so on the very low rainfall base due to the time of year. Hardly a glowing endorsement for improvement.

It's funny that you opted to pick 1983 as an anomaly as it doesn't support your case and yet it factors heavily in your argument when using the Winter/Spring deciles comparison as it skews the data in your favour. Go figure ! If we removed it from that "Average" map you showed then I am certain Winter and Spring would look a lot more similar and you yourself have said that ;

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber

even though in most el ninos el nino thresholds are not reached in winter.


Oops !! Neither is their impact on "average".

I have little doubt that there is an impending ElNino however you have made the case in the past that the strongest effect is during the development stage and not the established stage other than for FNQ. So how does that fit in with this wide spread rain event again? Especially when you also made the point that the deficiency affect the eastern half of the country hardest?

I fully understand Kino's frustration.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1472637 - 10/10/2018 09:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3449
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Can’t see any similarity



I can. North Qld both wet. South Qld Both dry. South NSW both dry. Vic both dry. Differences such as north NSW being wet in 2009 and dry this year don't make the similarities go away. The majority of the key ENSO influenced region of East Australia is dry in both years. This year is drier than 2009. But what I meant was to compare current SSTs with 2009 SSTs. Do you think current SSTs in the nino regions are warmer or cooler than 2009? I think they are warmer.

So this year has been drier than 2009. This year has warmer SSTs than 2009. So this year is more el nino like than 2009 (so far) but you want to make a big deal out of the fact that the threshold for el nino has not been crossed yet. When was the threshold for el nino crossed in 2009? In October. Similar in many other years. When does the strongest impact on rainfall occur in most el ninos? Before October. Before the threshold for el nino is met.

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#1472638 - 10/10/2018 09:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: Peachester
How about "you" guys switch from using a second person narrative to the third. Making it personal is turning an interesting discussion into something quite boring.

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#1472640 - 10/10/2018 09:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18728
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
but you want to make a big deal out of the fact that the threshold for el nino has not been crossed yet.


...and yet you were the most vocal opponent to the rain event in October last year when the pacific was trying to establish a La Nina. Amazing !
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1472645 - 10/10/2018 09:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3449
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


...and yet last year you continually argued against the influence, repeatedly trying to make the point last year the effects from a La Nina ocean pattern which had an alert issued at this time a year ago were negligible due to the late start despite


I continually argued against claims that last year's rainfall was la nina like because the rainfall last year was not La Nina like. It was average. I never argued there were no similarities between last year and a La Nina or that they can't be compared.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I am betting this current event won't show the low decile numbers your Spring "AVERAGE" map displays.


Of course it won't be exactly the same, but I'd say its going to have some similarities. What do you think it will look like?

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

The unfortunate part of showing a map that "AVERAGES" 12 events is that despite those being listed as the 12 strongest it includes relatively weak events which actually enhance rainfall in NSW in Spring in particular due to favourable conditions for thunderstorm development. Despite this it still shows a deficiency and does so on the very low rainfall base due to the time of year. Hardly a glowing endorsement for improvement.


Which of the 12 strongest are relatively weak events? How much does that actually skew the data? And the prime area I noted for improvement was coast NSW. Hardly a low rainfall region.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

It's funny that you opted to pick 1983 as an anomaly as it doesn't support your case and yet it factors heavily in your argument when using the Winter/Spring deciles comparison as it skews the data in your favour. Go figure ! If we removed it from that "Average" map you showed then I am certain Winter and Spring would look a lot more similar and you yourself have said that ;


The maps are decile maps. They are not impacted by skewness, which impacts averages. Someone who wants to have a go at me for confusing 'average' and 'normal' should understand this.(The correct statistical term I should have been using when I refer to 'average' is actually 'median')

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I have little doubt that there is an impending ElNino however you have made the case in the past that the strongest effect is during the development stage and not the established stage other than for FNQ. So how does that fit in with this wide spread rain event again?


The widespread rainfall event is pretty much restricted to southern Qld and northern NSW, exactly the regions that I stated have reduced impact in Spring. It does not impact Victoria or tropical Qld where the impacts of El Nino typically remain strong in Spring. Seems a reasonable fit to me? To be a perfect fit it would have to be further north, but of course there is no such thing as average....

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#1472647 - 10/10/2018 09:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3449
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
but you want to make a big deal out of the fact that the threshold for el nino has not been crossed yet.


...and yet you were the most vocal opponent to the rain event in October last year when the pacific was trying to establish a La Nina. Amazing !



No I wasn't. I enjoyed that rain event. It was very La Nina like in circulation patterns, and one of my key arguments later in the season was that those La Nina like circulation patterns did not occur other than in that October event.

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#1472654 - 10/10/2018 10:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2401
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Looking in the longer term interesting to see that neutral to cool subsurface anomaly slowly poking it head out on the subsurface anomaly chart. The beginning of a La Nina?

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#1472661 - 10/10/2018 11:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
One thing that is presumed at times on here and by myself, is that the dry conditions from last summer are connected to the dry conditions of now just because there has been no wet in between. It makes it easier if we presume this because we can look for one single cause rather than multiple. But I suspect the reasons for dry conditions in Australia are numerous and it is always more likely to be dry than wet in any given month.
Not saying of course that they are not connected just saying that we need to remember that wet in Australia is more the exception than the norm for a large part of the continent.

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#1472664 - 10/10/2018 11:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3449
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: RC
Looking in the longer term interesting to see that neutral to cool subsurface anomaly slowly poking it head out on the subsurface anomaly chart. The beginning of a La Nina?


Possibly. Its quite weak so far compared to other el nino years.
Judging by previous transitions it needs some level of trade wind surge to boost the western cold pool into the east. The larger the cold pool the more out of balance the Pacific is and the weaker the trade wind surge required to get the required Cool Kelvin wave going. But 2009/10 had a quite weak cold pool and went to strong La Nina, and 2002 had a stronger cold pool and went back to warm neutral.

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#1472670 - 10/10/2018 11:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Sillybanter]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18728
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
One thing that is presumed at times on here and by myself, is that the dry conditions from last summer are connected to the dry conditions of now just because there has been no wet in between. It makes it easier if we presume this because we can look for one single cause rather than multiple. But I suspect the reasons for dry conditions in Australia are numerous and it is always more likely to be dry than wet in any given month.
Not saying of course that they are not connected just saying that we need to remember that wet in Australia is more the exception than the norm for a large part of the continent.


Yep.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1472753 - 10/10/2018 18:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Goody Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2002
Posts: 736
Loc: Wagga District ...Where Crows ...
I feel like l have just come back to Planet Earth after a long intergalactic journey
However,
Has anybody been looking at the low Sunspot activity & the correlation to this & our low present rainfall ?

We are remindered of how Indigo Jones used this infofmation to formulating his forecasting

These days we all have access to Google to find out “anything “ or we can let the BOM do it for us

I guess in essence I am saying along with newer knowledge of the Indian Ocean Dipole & El Niño Watch etc it is very relevant for those involved in Primary Production to be aware !

Nevertheless all this information should be out there for those who seek it to make their own judgment

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#1472754 - 10/10/2018 18:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Goody Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2002
Posts: 736
Loc: Wagga District ...Where Crows ...
I hasten to add we are in a very very low Sunspot activity period

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#1472850 - 11/10/2018 12:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7545
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I reckon this thread would be far more interesting if we banned the use of anomaly charts (as we all will never agree on a date range to determine the anomaly data to compare current conditions against), and also banned the use of selected past "analog" weather events (because we all refute the selected analog and present counter events).

Hence simply leave the established centres to speculate/publish the longer term climate forecasts.

That would leave us here with the "whats out there now" metrics (SST, ENSO value, wind data, MJO current position etc.) to use as the base for our discussion. Would be far more educational for a tiro like me imo - not to mention establishing common ground for all posters.

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#1472853 - 11/10/2018 12:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7545
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice patch of water vapour presently accumulated in AUS interior, sourced from the warm waters currently located Broome-Darwin. Certainly provides some promise for rain in the much needed regions of Qld/NSW should the local conditions allow?


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#1472857 - 11/10/2018 12:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2842
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yeah interesting times Petros - these sort of events in nearly Mid Oct are unusual if not rare. Usually by now the Hadley Cell has started its annual sojourn and the heat low is dominating.

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#1473007 - 11/10/2018 17:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 722
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Petros
I reckon this thread would be far more interesting if we banned the use of anomaly charts (as we all will never agree on a date range to determine the anomaly data to compare current conditions against), and also banned the use of selected past "analog" weather events (because we all refute the selected analog and present counter events).

Hence simply leave the established centres to speculate/publish the longer term climate forecasts.

That would leave us here with the "whats out there now" metrics (SST, ENSO value, wind data, MJO current position etc.) to use as the base for our discussion. Would be far more educational for a tiro like me imo - not to mention establishing common ground for all posters.

tweet this to Anthony masiello. Im sure you will get a great response if he has the time.

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#1473076 - 11/10/2018 21:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7639
Loc: Adelaide Hills
#1473007 -- I have an idea of what could be banned, or rather kept in check -- but I don't know about the common ground part.

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