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#1473094 - 11/10/2018 22:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Petros
I reckon this thread would be far more interesting if we banned the use of anomaly charts (as we all will never agree on a date range to determine the anomaly data to compare current conditions against), and also banned the use of selected past "analog" weather events (because we all refute the selected analog and present counter events).

Hence simply leave the established centres to speculate/publish the longer term climate forecasts.

That would leave us here with the "whats out there now" metrics (SST, ENSO value, wind data, MJO current position etc.) to use as the base for our discussion. Would be far more educational for a tiro like me imo - not to mention establishing common ground for all posters.


That's actually how the thread ran for a long time but then a handful of posters tried to complicate it as well as repeatedly try to regulate AGW discussion and some still do. Funnily enough ones of them is now wanting to moderate it.

There are other aspects that need to be included into discussion outside of ENSO however. The ones in the heading, as they all have an impact and have been discussed as part of the thread topic for as long as the ENSO thread has existed.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1473102 - 11/10/2018 23:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 204
Originally Posted By: Seira
#1473007 -- I have an idea of what could be banned, or rather kept in check -- but I don't know about the common ground part.


Yeah..spot on....

Banning anything like anomaly charts and the like would, I imagine, not be supported when push comes to shove..however individual posters are surely free to voluntarily desist from using them if they see a benefit in doing so.

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#1473105 - 11/10/2018 23:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2637
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Agree....and are regularly trashed by a certain few when they are raised btw.

Clearly Aus is under the influence of a yet identified driver....given La Niña gave us drought, and a developing El Niño and +IOD are giving us the best rains in months for many places (even Alice has had rain today).

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#1473115 - 12/10/2018 07:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3307
Loc: Buderim
Rainfall during last year's sort of La Nina (met NCEP threshold but not BOM) was close to average.



Of course if you exclude the rainiest month it gets below average, same as for any other period of near average conditions. As the event was building I commented that there was not much reason to expect above average rainfall as the cool water was mostly restricted to the east.

Rainfall during this developing El nino has been very much below average.



Back in Spring I predicted that for NSW/South QLD we were past the worst of it:

Quote:
While we are still only in ENSO watch, we are now in Spring. Peak rainfall impacts of an el nino are in winter for central eastern Australia (roughly NSW/QLD border), and peak impacts move north and south through Spring. So some areas should already be improving their rainfall outlooks, and other areas would be near peak.


And funny enough we are seeing some half decent rains in these areas. (And WA which is outside normal ENSO influence and can also have enhanced rainfall during at least some periods of el nino)



Certainly some other things are affecting out climate. Chief among these I would say are upper trough activity which seems to have been high in Australia's region. Why this has been the case and whether it will continue I have no idea.

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#1473124 - 12/10/2018 08:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 37
Loc: Toowoomba
These maps provide ammunition for both sides of the argument.
If I was to breakdown last summer I would say that the rain fell with tropical cyclones or tropical lows. With large numbers tracking southeast away from the east coast in the Tasman sea and through inland WA.
Then we could then say that the winter/spring map was heavily influenced by the SAM and less than favourable Indian Ocean input.
Not to disagree completely that it shows enough evidence to support the Enso setup at the time, just indicating that it also can be interpreted in another light.

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#1473128 - 12/10/2018 08:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3307
Loc: Buderim
My point is not the ENSO is the only factor in rainfall in the least year or so. My point is that the rainfall has not been as far from what might be expected as Kino made out. SAM helped Southern Australia out a lot I think, although my map hides that a little as September was a poor month for the south and winter map shows a better rainfall in Vic etc.

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#1473135 - 12/10/2018 09:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Kino
Agree....and are regularly trashed by a certain few when they are raised btw.

Clearly Aus is under the influence of a yet identified driver....given La Niña gave us drought, and a developing El Niño and +IOD are giving us the best rains in months for many places (even Alice has had rain today).


Yeah pretty spot on. The past few years there has been some obvious influence external to ENSO on our weather patterns. A blind man can see it .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1473141 - 12/10/2018 09:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2637
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Kino
Agree....and are regularly trashed by a certain few when they are raised btw.

Clearly Aus is under the influence of a yet identified driver....given La Niña gave us drought, and a developing El Niño and +IOD are giving us the best rains in months for many places (even Alice has had rain today).


Yeah pretty spot on. The past few years there has been some obvious influence external to ENSO on our weather patterns. A blind man can see it .


You'd think so CF....apparently not.

If we get rain here today, which is likely, it'll be the first Oct since 2005 to record 10 straight rain days in a row. If the forecast rain comes off, which looking at models is sure possible, it'll be the longest period of days with rainfall recorded for here (Bellambi) since records began (granted the station is only 22 years of age, but still impressive).

For Albion Park it's already the longest spell since March 2017 and longest on record for Oct (again, station is only 20-odd years old) and Kiama is also similar (2009 is the last Oct it recorded 9+ days rain in a row).

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#1473151 - 12/10/2018 10:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7373
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
SST remains high Broome-Darwin, no real change Nino3.4, but heat seems to be building Nth of New Guinea (more La Nina-like, than developing El Nino??):



Hows that heat surrounding Mexico!


Edited by Petros (12/10/2018 10:52)

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#1473152 - 12/10/2018 10:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3307
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


You'd think so CF....apparently not.



As I said directly above CF's post

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
My point is not the ENSO is the only factor in rainfall in the least year or so.


In the past few months I"ve made reference to

IOD
SAM
long wave trough
Ningaloo Nina
PDO
North Pacific Meridional Mode
South Pacific Meridional MOde

How many of these or other factors have you made reference to?

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#1473154 - 12/10/2018 10:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7373
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Does anyone have a link to a non-anomoly based SS Level chart? (or can this metric only be determined using anomoly?).

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#1473155 - 12/10/2018 10:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7373
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
You could also add "Solar weather" to that list Mike.

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#1473159 - 12/10/2018 11:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2637
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Most of them Mike. And I'm pretty sure that was *also* my point, however as usual you failed to read it and posted a whole lot of irrelevant cherry-picked graphs.

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#1473169 - 12/10/2018 13:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3307
Loc: Buderim
If your point was that there are other factors then ENSO that affect climate, then everyone is agreed. All ENSO events have periods which run contrary to the general trend. The impact of every ENSO event is different, but the majority of ENSO events have an impact at least somewhat similar to what is expected. Your point seems to be that something other than ENSO has had a dominant impact on Australian rainfall, and caused a rainfall pattern contrary to what might be expected under ENSO

Originally Posted By: Kino
Clearly Aus is under the influence of a yet identified driver....given La Niña gave us drought, and a developing El Niño and +IOD are giving us the best rains in months for many places (even Alice has had rain today).


I provided chart showing that while we had a cool ENSO event last year rainfall was by close to average, and not at all drought. And that the rainfall during the el nino has been quite el nino like. And all you can say is that its irrelevant and cherry picked, turn it into a personal insult with the added 'as usual', and without any evidence or reason for why they are irrelevant or cherry picked.

I remember last year you argued black and blue that the rainfall was very La Nina like and everytime I showed data that it was actually close to average you accused me of cherry picking because it wasn't as wet as you wanted it show. Now its not as dry as you want it to show, so its still cherry picking.

If you exclude the wet months of October and March you can get a period that is dry. But for any period of average rainfall if you exclude the wet months then all that is left is the dry.

Or perhaps by cherry picking you mean the el nino rainfall? Pick any start date from last April, and any end date up to yesterday (and a duration of at least 3 months), and you will see strong dry anomalies in the usual el nino drought regions.

I see no cherry picking. I do see someone who doesn't like what the data shows and is making flimsy excuses to try and ignore it.


Edited by Mike Hauber (12/10/2018 13:02)

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#1473179 - 12/10/2018 14:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 321
I wouldn’t bother writing such well reasoned replies Mike, you’re speaking a different language.

As for the doubts about anomalies in sea temps and their not being able to be accurately verified as anomalies, there are biological indicators that clearly show that anamolies ARE REAL. Coral bleaching events would be an obvious example as would things like plankton blooms.
Now before someone gets their knickers in a knot, I’m not saying things like coral bleaching events haven’t happened in the past, but if the number of events increases along with the severity of the events such that previously healthy reefs die that have existed for thousands of years, then one could reasonably conclude the conditions that produced the events were abnormal.

Again, pretty basic combination of theory + observation = knowledge.


Edited by Eigerwand (12/10/2018 14:46)

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#1473222 - 12/10/2018 18:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7373
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Eiger, could you please re read your post and re-present it in a way that is clearer?

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#1473245 - 12/10/2018 20:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 692
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Petros
Eiger, could you please re read your post and re-present it in a way that is clearer?
pretty clear to me. If you need help try reading more.

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#1473250 - 12/10/2018 20:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7224
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Originally Posted By: Petros
Eiger, could you please re read your post and re-present it in a way that is clearer?
pretty clear to me. If you need help try reading more.


Yeah, I understood it just fine as well.

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#1473252 - 12/10/2018 21:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RandomGuy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2012
Posts: 50
For the random observer, this thread has turned into a joke.

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#1473253 - 12/10/2018 21:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RandomGuy]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7224
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: RandomGuy
For the random observer, this thread has turned into a joke.


Yeah because we've got a guy who pushes for warm and a guy who pushes for cool on the whole climate change spectrum. So, if Pacific looks like El-Nino, cool guy will try to disprove it and likewise if Pacific looks like La-Nina, warm guy will try to disprove that. And it runs from there. Personal agendas getting in the way of good discussion.

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