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#1478203 - 02/12/2018 21:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
If you have a high to the south and low to the north, you are pushing the air north but Coriolis force deflects the push and the air moves from east to west.

If you have southerly winds you are pushing the water north, but Coriolos force deflects the push and the water moves from west to east. On the west coast this is away from the coast and cold water has to well up to replace it. On the east this pushes the water towards the coast and you get downwelling.


Water moves from east to west I think you mean assuming we’re talking S hemisphere here. Coriolis force acts to the left in the S hemisphere.

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#1478204 - 02/12/2018 22:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2835
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Clutching is an understatement (maybe better described as cherry picking?) - check out the Sept to Nov rainfall map - most UN El Niño like.

I’m almost unbelieving of the 10mm deficit for Aus for Nov when the majority of the country had average or above rainfall. Something clearly not right about that figure.

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#1478207 - 02/12/2018 22:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
Yeah it looks odd but many of the areas showing above average rainfall may be off a low base.

Sept - November is definitely not an ElNino map.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478210 - 02/12/2018 23:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8633
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Indeed, Sept-Nov map is more reminiscent of neutral/La nina, as even in La nina years you'll get certain areas recording well below avg rainfall. Oct/Nov clearly shows where that moisture was coming from, frequent infeeds mainly from the NW/N and some from the E. Another one in progress over inland WA.

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#1478213 - 03/12/2018 07:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2397
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Depends whether you think the maps are accurate. Given the sparsely located weather stations, the maps can never be accurate.

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#1478214 - 03/12/2018 07:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
True RC. They are smoothed as I said last Summer (You disputed it at the time when I made the case for Central Qld), however if you look at Yeppoon as an example , it exceeded its median rainfall for November but is shown to be deficient on the map.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478217 - 03/12/2018 10:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
Well, I think the fact that we have seen heat records in the Capricornia and NE coastal regions of Queensland that absolutely blow away seems to fit well with an El Niño..

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#1478219 - 03/12/2018 10:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
The record heat was due to a surface pattern not seen in November since the 50's and associated with the Indian Ocean Diploe. There has been no Elnino declared and even if it is this next update , it is too late in the year to have a significant impact.

https://theconversation.com/indian-ocean-linked-to-bushfires-and-drought-in-australia-20893
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478231 - 03/12/2018 14:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2835
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Well, I think the fact that we have seen heat records in the Capricornia and NE coastal regions of Queensland that absolutely blow away seems to fit well with an El Niño..


Has one been declared? And since when does weather equate to climate?

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#1478233 - 03/12/2018 14:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2642
removing GW content


Edited by Mick10 (04/12/2018 07:17)
_________________________

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#1478251 - 03/12/2018 17:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
So you use a link discussing how IOD will bring dry weather to SE Australia to support your claim that the IOD caused the lows that brought wet weather to SE Australia....

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#1478253 - 03/12/2018 17:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Trades currently looking like doldrums Nino.4 into Nino3.4, but doesnt show up as an anomaly on StormSurfs chart today. Trades on the Nth side of the Pacific equatorial region going gang busters across the whole Ocean.

On the equator, EC and GFS show trades to gain in strength in Nino3.4 in a couple of days time, and to stay that way in the short term.

MJO set to fire up again in the Indian Ocean in coming days, more than half the models show it reaching Aus tropics similar to its last rain producing lap.

BOM and weatherzone seeming confident for rain to impact QLD tropics from the remnants of weak TC Owen in days to come, basically the start of the wet season for Qld IMO.

Conditions remain rain-favourable (long term averages probable) for the remainder of Aus (as they have over past 6 weeks) for coming weeks imo.

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#1478255 - 03/12/2018 17:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
So you use a link discussing how IOD will bring dry weather to SE Australia to support your claim that the IOD caused the lows that brought wet weather to SE Australia....


Can we find consensus that the IOD can be "parked" in terms of climate drivers until the end of Feb? Perhaps we should more keep an eye on the behavior of the MJO and SST/winds/SatIR images of equatorial cloud location(s)?

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#1478256 - 03/12/2018 17:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CeeBee]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1988
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
removing GW content


Edited by Mick10 (04/12/2018 07:19)

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#1478258 - 03/12/2018 18:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Kino


......I’m almost unbelieving of the 10mm deficit for Aus for Nov when the majority of the country had average or above rainfall. Something clearly not right about that figure.


10mm rain over a month is a deficit? - IMO its just noise in the huge area of Aus being discussed.

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#1478260 - 03/12/2018 18:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
So you use a link discussing how IOD will bring dry weather to SE Australia to support your claim that the IOD caused the lows that brought wet weather to SE Australia....


Thanks Mike, thought it was only me when I read that smile

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#1478266 - 03/12/2018 19:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
Kino, opposite of cherry picking: Showing all relavent data, which in this case is winter and spring. This is what I did.

Cherry pickin: showing only the part of the data you like. Which is what you did when showing Sep to Nov only.

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#1478268 - 03/12/2018 19:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8633
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
I don't see how Sep-Nov for the whole nation for the whole of spring is cherry pickin. Unless I missed something here laugh

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#1478270 - 03/12/2018 19:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah I thought the same LRH but I went back to Mike's post and he does say 'late spring/early summer'. Though I agree, one month is hardly enough to get a gauge on anything. Sep-Nov doesn't look very El-Nino-ish to me although you could argue conditions have worsened over November.

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#1478283 - 03/12/2018 19:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Petros


thought it was only me when I read that smile


If I need to explain it properly I am happy to. The dry air was dragged in from the Indian Ocean and a weather pattern not seen since the 50's exacerbated the issue by carrying the air much further north east than might normally be the case allowing records to be smashed due to south westerly air flow around the Low being carried right up into the north eastern tropics so was carried much further across the deserts before it arrived. The margin in which the records were broken spoke for itself.

Even the BoM support this and it was discussed widely on news services. It was nothing to do with the Pacific Ocean .

Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
I don't see how Sep-Nov for the whole nation for the whole of spring is cherry pickin. Unless I missed something here laugh


No mate, you didn't miss anything.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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