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#1478310 - 03/12/2018 23:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2835
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Dr Blair Trewin
Climate drivers 'neutral'

Most of the climate drivers were neutral over spring, but Dr Trewin said sometimes a lack of a driver could be an influence in itself.

"The two ways you get relatively cooler conditions in the tropics are either there's an early start to wet season, which hasn't happened," he said.

"Or alternatively, if you're getting strong fronts coming across the southern part of the country which ends up pushing cooler air into northern Australia — and that hasn't been happening either."

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#1478315 - 04/12/2018 01:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1988
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Dr Blair Trewin
Climate drivers 'neutral'

Most of the climate drivers were neutral over spring, but Dr Trewin said sometimes a lack of a driver could be an influence in itself.

"The two ways you get relatively cooler conditions in the tropics are either there's an early start to wet season, which hasn't happened," he said.

"Or alternatively, if you're getting strong fronts coming across the southern part of the country which ends up pushing cooler air into northern Australia — and that hasn't been happening either."


Once again nobody has a clue as to whats gong on despite the billions spent worldwide and the policy based upon no one really knowing anything, will cost taxpayers billions more for zero result as a result.

Cue slow Golf clap.


Edited by marakai (04/12/2018 01:59)

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#1478319 - 04/12/2018 07:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2835
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
😂😂😂

Its more interesting given his own Dept & colleagues say the IOD is the primary climate driver of recent weather...

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#1478333 - 04/12/2018 09:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: Peachester
Dunning Kruger effect on display. I don't know anything therefore how can anyone else?

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#1478337 - 04/12/2018 11:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest Pacific Ocean SSL anomaly chart is out on StormSurf, shows the Pacific remaining "equally flat" along the equator, as it has past couple of weeks now. Pacific EQ SST profile has a hint more warmth mid Nino.3 but not much (<0.5C), Nino1.2 remains same, the 28C subsurface isotherm continues to reach the surface at 155deg W as it has for more than a month.

Very little equatorial cloudiness evident in the Nino3-4 zones:




Trades working away freshly in Nino.3 and move further westwards into Nino.4 region in coming days acc. to EC & GFS as shown on the Windy site.

Guess most of us will be focusing on whether rains can make it into FNQ over coming days.

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#1478340 - 04/12/2018 11:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Petros

Guess most of us will be focusing on whether rains can make it into FNQ over coming days.


EC's latest run indicates they may do well.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478347 - 04/12/2018 12:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1988
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Dunning Kruger effect on display. I don't know anything therefore how can anyone else?


Ha ha yeah your right, for a really good example check out my latest .Gov policy based on that lack of knowledge that will still cost taxpayers hundreds of millions extra each year but will also satiate protesting school kids ....Oh hang on....crap where did I leave that Phd.

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#1478476 - 05/12/2018 11:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
Latest ENSO update is out.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478478 - 05/12/2018 12:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2835
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hard to see it getting across the line now unless there's a substantial WWB in the next few weeks - the last one didn't really eventuate.

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#1478543 - 05/12/2018 20:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2397
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
True RC. They are smoothed as I said last Summer (You disputed it at the time when I made the case for Central Qld), however if you look at Yeppoon as an example , it exceeded its median rainfall for November but is shown to be deficient on the map.


Actually you are doing to Mike exactly what you did to me a couple of years ago.

Mike is making some really valid points with the rainfall deficiency we are experiencing.

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#1478549 - 05/12/2018 21:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1831
Loc: Kingaroy
CFS has a dry signal typical of El Nino lasting well into autumn next year, it's interesting that the atmosphere hasn't coupled with the warm ocean.

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#1478552 - 05/12/2018 21:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
Last year it was RC and highlighted a lack of AWS' in coastal Central Queensland where useful rainfall fell which you tried to dismiss based on your own backyard and no he didn't make any valid points as he tried to tie an El Nino that doesn't exist to a rainfall deficiency that he skewed whilst ignoring the positive IOD in the Indian Ocean.

It was picked up by several posters when he labelled the entire Spring rainfall across the entire continent as nitpicking by Kino . No wonder you picked up on it then. The maps are smoothed.

It is noted that you ignored the Yeppoon data also as you were trying to push the map data the other way. Just like last year .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478561 - 05/12/2018 22:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2835
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not just there CF, the last 3 months maps have had us drier and above average for temps when the opposite has been he case.

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#1478563 - 05/12/2018 22:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
Precisely.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478565 - 05/12/2018 23:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
...and as with last year here is the AWS marker map. For some reason they are very sparce along the Central coast south of Mackay and north of Gladstone and even in your neck of the woods west of Rocky but become fairly wide spread north, south and west (those light grey dots out west from Emerald are AWS where no rain was recorded) . Maybe because it is not important for data that the region is light on for stations, yet they are well scattered west of Emerald.

You get much better smoothing where there is a high concentration of stations .


_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1478568 - 06/12/2018 00:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1988
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Kino
Hard to see it getting across the line now unless there's a substantial WWB in the next few weeks - the last one didn't really eventuate.


Mike usually has an abundance of those (WWB's) on hand when it comes to forecasts.

Time and again we see all sorts of forecasts and predictions supposedly based upon the best/cutting edge science that have failed to eventuate, and all are consistently wrong.
Literally billions of dollars spent over three decades and still the same inconsistent results year upon year.
And while all the attention is on the weather, we still have unmitigated damage being done in places like the Amazon rainforest where clear felling of old growth go's on and on day in day out and people there still have no other option other than wood as fuel for cooking and warmth when needed.

All this talk about climate drivers and the endless discussion about poofteenths of a degree in change compared to some supposed anomaly based on an arbitrary 30 yr construct of comparative records is nothing less than a mass circle jerk really.

The sad soggy biscuit in the middle is the environment itself. The Australian bush is built to burn on an annual basis right up to the edges of those places it will no longer burn, annual burns are a part of it's evolution and have been for millennia. Yet today we are asked to believe that bush fires are a result of a changing climate.

I may be wrong, but when you interfere with a natural cycle like annual fires and allow the buildup of a fuel load which normally would not be there, is it the extra .001% CO2 in the atmosphere or the result of a lax landcare effort that makes the difference ?

People get fined for chopping down a tree or three to protect their homes ffs. Yet the Govt gets off scott free when they lose everything, all in the name of combating Climate change by imposing Draconian laws which put peoples lives in danger under threat of law?

Tree's are worth more than peoples lives under current law....think about that.

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#1478598 - 06/12/2018 08:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: marakai]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: Kino
Hard to see it getting across the line now unless there's a substantial WWB in the next few weeks - the last one didn't really eventuate.


Mike usually has an abundance of those (WWB's) on hand when it comes to forecasts.

Time and again we see all sorts of forecasts and predictions supposedly based upon the best/cutting edge science that have failed to eventuate, and all are consistently wrong.
Literally billions of dollars spent over three decades and still the same inconsistent results year upon year.
And while all the attention is on the weather, we still have unmitigated damage being done in places like the Amazon rainforest where clear felling of old growth go's on and on day in day out and people there still have no other option other than wood as fuel for cooking and warmth when needed.

All this talk about climate drivers and the endless discussion about poofteenths of a degree in change compared to some supposed anomaly based on an arbitrary 30 yr construct of comparative records is nothing less than a mass circle jerk really.

The sad soggy biscuit in the middle is the environment itself. The Australian bush is built to burn on an annual basis right up to the edges of those places it will no longer burn, annual burns are a part of it's evolution and have been for millennia. Yet today we are asked to believe that bush fires are a result of a changing climate.

I may be wrong, but when you interfere with a natural cycle like annual fires and allow the buildup of a fuel load which normally would not be there, is it the extra .001% CO2 in the atmosphere or the result of a lax landcare effort that makes the difference ?

People get fined for chopping down a tree or three to protect their homes ffs. Yet the Govt gets off scott free when they lose everything, all in the name of combating Climate change by imposing Draconian laws which put peoples lives in danger under threat of law?

Tree's are worth more than peoples lives under current law....think about that.


Gosh where to begin. First I agree about the need to focus more on protecting the environment and worrying less about figures. I agree whats happening in the Amazon is awful but its not being felled at an alarming rate so people can use wood for cooking, its things like soy farming, timber and other large scale agribusiness that is doing the damage. I think the whole world needs to get together and pay Brazil an annual retainer to just leave the Amazon as is, its that important!

You seem to assume that the entirety of Australia is dry eucalypt/scrub/grassland, which can cope with frequent burns. Theres plenty that isnt, particularly if you think about what the place looked like before European settlement. Places that got burned recently west of Mackay havent adapted to cope with fire, nor have many places where pockets of rainforest or subalpine woodland/bog exist.

The other big problem with this whole fire science is that it appears to overlook the rather important point that the bulk of fires are deliberately lit! Even in areas that can cope with fire, it is a phenomenae of variance when it occurs naturally. Sometimes you might see a fire a few years in a row, other times not for decades. The only place that has adapted for any length of time to frequent burns would be the parts in the north where the Aborginies practiced fire stick farming. If you consistently burn a place you are continually selecting plants and animals that can cope with fire, so overtime you change it completely. Thats a big issue I see with back burns being done too frequently.

Im also pretty skeptical about all this fuel load build up. The bush, any natural system, are self regulating. Yes, leaf matter etc builds up, but then it breaks down and returns to soil. The idea that somehow the bush becomes overloaded and needs fire each year or every 10 seems a bit suspect to me. Ive spent much time in the bush around the Blue Mountains, a real fire area, and cant really say that fuel load in area that had a burn 30 years ago was anymore significant than one that had had a burn 10 years ago.

As per usual, the hints to the real state of affairs are in the ecosystems themselves.

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#1478599 - 06/12/2018 08:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Totally agree marak.. The aussie bush is meant to burn. What the hell happened before white people got here...... yes it burnt uncontrolled. Wake up idiots who make those comments. Actually politicians are some of the most uneducated people around. But really we are also unnaturally putting green gasses into the atmosphere so something will damage our eco system. We really do have to give up burning fossil fuel simply to reduce pollution and green gases. Anyone factor in how our oxygen levels will start to drop ????
But anyway I'm pretty excited by the advances we are making in clean solutions. And......just build around the trees else build your suburbs out in the desert
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1478600 - 06/12/2018 09:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1162
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
I can't comment on other areas of the country but some of the areas around the Kinglake National Park which burnt on Black Saturday hadn't seen fire in 80 years and the fuel loads were extreme, Fire Danger Index's are calculated on a ground fuel load estimate of 4.5 tonnes per hectare, some of these areas were as high as 50 tonnes per hectare. By controlling small fires we create big fires in the future, the Kinglake areas are the worst example of this because compared to most thick forested areas it is highly populated and thus every small thing is jumped on very quickly.


Edited by logansi (06/12/2018 09:05)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1478624 - 06/12/2018 13:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS has the Quidge breaking down by the end of the weekend. Hopefully will result in better rain chances for large areas of QLD during next week?

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