NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 151 of 154 < 1 2 ... 149 150 151 152 153 154 >
Topic Options
#1483327 - 31/12/2018 12:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Petros



....hence verifies the validity of the zone selected! Zone not filled with WWB = nil or weak nino.


so 97/98 was nil or weak nino?

Top
#1483329 - 31/12/2018 12:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Apologies Mike, I thought you had said that in weaker el ninos most of the WWBs do not reach the eastern edge of the zone.

Re 97/98 - wasnt that an El Nino according to SOI values? - lately you seem to have little faith in these?


Edited by Petros (31/12/2018 13:04)

Top
#1483335 - 31/12/2018 13:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Ok Petros, I'm not sure where we are getting our wires crossed, but 97/98 was an extreme el nino by SST. I've always preferred SST and ignored SOI, its only been an issue lately because of the divergence.

During 97/98 the WWB covered the eastern and middle parts of the zone, but no the west. In weaker (including moderate) el ninos the westerlies are further west and cover the west to middle part of the zone. I think in 2002 there was a very extensive WWB that might have covered the entire zone, and there are probably a couple others lurking around. TAO is down so I can't check, and have had a quick look through some of my saved images with patchy coverage.

Top
#1483337 - 31/12/2018 13:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Well I'll give you one thing. You are consistent. laugh


As you are consistent in ignoring the fact that all research papers list 2002 as modoki year when nino 3 was 1.2 and nino 4 was 0.8. This year is more modoki like than 2002.


Originally Posted By: ColdFront
The single biggest error in the modoki phenomenon is adding the ENSO terminology to the end of it. Modoki quite literally means "similar but not the same" .


All scientists studying modoki refer to Modoki El Nino or Modoki La Nina.

Quote:

Just a few weeks back you were pushing the notion that the Cape would be the one area to miss out on average rains from December- February and even popped up a decile map to show as much and record rainfall in parts up there ruined your plans you decided to switch to Modoki discussion. In fact for December the outcome has been quite opposite to that decile map you used as your basis to tear everyone else down.



Another Coldfront lie about what I have said in the past. I was discussing this as a modoki event before the rainfall in December, not after.

From 29 Nov
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Yes that is correct. The OLR data is reflective of a Modoki pattern, and does not show that there is no coupling.




Start of the thread for TC Owen back when it was an invest in the coral sea. Dec 2


Originally Posted By: ColdFront

SOI in previous so-called Modoki ElNino.

1991 8 -5.90
1991 9 -15.99
1991 10 -14.12
1991 11 -6.48
1991 12 -18.64


1994 3 -9.63
1994 4 -20.07
1994 5 -10.76
1994 6 -9.74
1994 7 -15.60
1994 8 -17.30
1994 9 -16.02
1994 10 -14.08
1994 11 -6.78
1994 12 -13.28


2002 7 -7.12
2002 8 -14.29
2002 9 -7.35
2002 10 -7.58
2002 11 -4.08
2002 12 -13.39


2004 6 -13.89
2004 7 -6.40
2004 8 -6.72
2004 9 -3.23
2004 10 -3.01
2004 11 -7.73
2004 12 -10.06


2009 10 -14.86
2009 11 -6.42
2009 12 -9.00
2010 1 -8.26
2010 2 -18.23
2010 3 -10.79



2018 9 -8.49
2018 10 2.61
2018 11 0.56
2018 12 9.46


How anyone can call Elnino of any description on those numbers is mind boggling in its arrogance.


Because other indicators are quite el nino like.


Originally Posted By: ColdFront[/quote

On the so-called WWB , it's a stretch at best. The winds are almost northerly cross-equatorial through much of that region associated as Kino said, with the monsoon




The image Mega and I describe as a WWB is not the one you posted, but this one.



Clearly a WWB.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

"BioGraphical Sketch:
Mike is the Deputy Director of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). In this capacity, he provides support to the director ensuring the day-to-day operation of the CPC. Mike leads efforts to communicate CPC's goals and vision to customers, stakeholders, the media and the public, serving as CPC.'s point of contact for NWS Public Affairs. He also serves as CPC's property custodian and works to ensure the successful execution of budget priorities. He is also a member of the ENSO and seasonal forecast teams. He led CPC's real-time climate monitoring efforts throughout much of the 1990s and their forecast operations between 2002 and 2007. He has co-authored many peer-reviewed journal articles on numerous topics in climate variability and climate prediction, including papers detailing El Nino impacts around the globe. He received his bachelor's degree in Meteorology from Cook College, Rutgers University and his master's degree in Atmospheric Science from the University of Michigan. He began is career at CPC as a summer student in 1981".



"Peer reviewed" - your favourite argument for someone being skilled .


my bold.



My argument is not that he is not skilled. My argument is that a researcher publishing before Modoki was discovered and working as a manager more recently is going to be less knowledgeable on modoki than a researcher who is actively researching the Modoki phenomenon.

Top
#1483338 - 31/12/2018 13:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
I think it's becoming increasingly obvious who is lying. You just tried to shoot down a man with 37 years experience in climate science because he doesn't support your view. Your claim he is somehow not knowledgeable has no basis of fact, just your opinion which is blurred by your obsession with warming. Just as you have done with BoM and pretty much every other expert that does not lean your way.

It clearly states he is still actively involved in the determination of ENSO status but you suggesting it excludes the so-called modoki events is truly absurd and entirely based on a biased presumption. Extremely poor form. Maybe you can list here exactly just how skilled or unskilled he is seeing as how you are clearly an expert on his standing .


...and I am well aware of what the scientists define as a Modoki Elnino. I never stated otherwise so stop spinning crap.

As for that image you quoted, along the equator which is the top red line it shows exactly the same as that wind map I posted.
_________________________


Top
#1483347 - 31/12/2018 14:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


As you are consistent in ignoring the fact that all research papers list 2002 as modoki year when nino 3 was 1.2 and nino 4 was 0.8. This year is more modoki like than 2002.




Another lie. I quite clearly listed 2002 in my above post. Here it is again.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront


2002 7 -7.12
2002 8 -14.29
2002 9 -7.35
2002 10 -7.58
2002 11 -4.08
2002 12 -13.39




_________________________


Top
#1483348 - 31/12/2018 14:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
You more or less shot down Ventrice's views though CF so what's the difference?

How can people think he's biased when it was looking like La-Nina last year and he was right on that as well? It's not just during El-Nino potential that these guys post stuff on their Twitter feeds despite what some may think.

Top
#1483351 - 31/12/2018 14:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
I said Ventrice beats the same drum as someone in here in reference to not being able to look at the bigger picture of what defines an ElNino whilst ingoring the fact the SOI is firmly in LaNina territory. I don't disagree with everything he says out of hand and certainly never tried to smear his credentials , unlike Mike .That's the difference.

Ventrice has his critics.
_________________________


Top
#1483352 - 31/12/2018 14:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And re Ventrice:

"I received my B.S. (2008) and Ph.D. (2012) from the University at Albany, Albany, New York in atmospheric science and meteorology. My research was focused on convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves and the Madden Julian Oscillation and their impact global circulation patterns and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity."

Yet apparently this guy does not know what a real WWB is despite specialising in the field?

Top
#1483353 - 31/12/2018 14:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Ventrice was quoting a model forecast. I was using real time data. It remains to be seen if it plays out or not. Throughout much of the second half of this year they simply haven't developed as forecast. Something noted here time and again.

Ventrice has his critics also.
_________________________


Top
#1483356 - 31/12/2018 14:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1078661008053452802?s=19

He is using his own hovmoller graphic to explain "current" conditions.

Of course he has his critics. So why is the guy Mike critiqued not allowed to be critiqued?

Top
#1483357 - 31/12/2018 14:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Well in that case I'll disagree. Surface charts don't support a strong WWB. The yshow a westerly belt south of the equator matched by an equivalent opposing easterly belt to the north and generally weak cross equatorial flow in the region marked by red boundaries.
_________________________


Top
#1483358 - 31/12/2018 14:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
If Ventrice is claiming these winds are a WWB then he loses al credibility:



They are clearly meridional.

However, having reading his stuff, which I note no one has posted i support of their claims, he seems to be referring to the modelled forecast and not current conditions.

If the WWB in Zone 5 pushes further west into Nino territory, then it will definitely be a WWB, as I have stated already, as they are CLEARLY zonal. But at this time, that small patch of westerlies is contained within a monsoonal flow which originates in the northern hemisphere and clearly MERIDIONAL.

The latest gradient level wind analysis confirms this to be a fact as evidenced by the monsoonal trough line.



Edited by Kino (31/12/2018 14:34)

Top
#1483360 - 31/12/2018 14:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
It was a mistake of me to use the 10m chart because it's not a good representation of how strong it is. Look at the 900s or 850s (that's what is used by BoM and NOAA) and you'll see what I mean.

Top
#1483363 - 31/12/2018 14:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Kino
he seems to be referring to the modelled forecast and not current conditions.



That's what I saw.

Originally Posted By: Mega


Of course he has his critics. So why is the guy Mike critiqued not allowed to be critiqued?


Because the people criticising him are criticising his forecast analysis, not his qualifications as a climate scientist , nor his current job description based on nothing other than assumption because it doesn't support a person's determination to get their ElNino over the line.

I follow Ventrice on twitter and have a fair degree of respect for the guy, have certainly learned from him, however he has continually pushed the expectation of WWB behaviour based on historical data and that has been his downfall this year.

How many times to you repeat the same line about how strong they will be and how far east they will penetrate before you finally acknowledge that something else is disrupting their expected behaviour?
_________________________


Top
#1483364 - 31/12/2018 14:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I note that Ventrice isn't the only one who sees a WWB as I posted a few pages back. Suppose they're dead wrong as well and don't know what a true WWB is.

Top
#1483365 - 31/12/2018 14:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I think it's becoming increasingly obvious who is lying. You just tried to shoot down a man with 37 years experience in climate science because he doesn't support your view. Your claim he is somehow not knowledgeable has no basis of fact, just your opinion which is blurred by your obsession with warming. Just as you have done with BoM and pretty much every other expert that does not lean your way.


To quote what I actually said:

Quote:
My argument is that a researcher publishing before Modoki was discovered and working as a manager more recently is going to be less knowledgeable on modoki than a researcher who is actively researching the Modoki phenomenon.

Top
#1483366 - 31/12/2018 14:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


As you are consistent in ignoring the fact that all research papers list 2002 as modoki year when nino 3 was 1.2 and nino 4 was 0.8. This year is more modoki like than 2002.




Another lie. I quite clearly listed 2002 in my above post. Here it is again.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront


2002 7 -7.12
2002 8 -14.29
2002 9 -7.35
2002 10 -7.58
2002 11 -4.08
2002 12 -13.39






So you agree with me that 2002 was a modoki event. You have still ignored the part that 2002 had a significantly higher nino 3 value (east) than nino 4 value (central), and so was less modoki like than the current year.

Seems that for you this is an incovenient truth and so you ignore it.

Top
#1483367 - 31/12/2018 14:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I think it's becoming increasingly obvious who is lying. You just tried to shoot down a man with 37 years experience in climate science because he doesn't support your view. Your claim he is somehow not knowledgeable has no basis of fact, just your opinion which is blurred by your obsession with warming. Just as you have done with BoM and pretty much every other expert that does not lean your way.


To quote what I actually said:

Quote:
My argument is that a researcher publishing before Modoki was discovered and working as a manager more recently is going to be less knowledgeable on modoki than a researcher who is actively researching the Modoki phenomenon.




Prove it Mike. It is assumption and nothing else and all because he goes against your own belief on current ENSO status. But then so do BoM and NOAA so they are clearly less skilled than yourself .
_________________________


Top
#1483379 - 31/12/2018 16:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Yet again you ignore the fact that 2002 is clearly listed as modoki, with nino 3 at 1.2 and nino 4 at 0.8. With this year mostly having nino 4 above nino 3 this year is clearly more modoki like than 2002.

Top
Page 151 of 154 < 1 2 ... 149 150 151 152 153 154 >


Who's Online
1 registered (aussiestormfreak), 45 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Ansgar Berling, Instability, Krightlane, lynkim1
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529243 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image