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#1483382 - 31/12/2018 16:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19003
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I think it's becoming increasingly obvious who is lying. You just tried to shoot down a man with 37 years experience in climate science because he doesn't support your view. Your claim he is somehow not knowledgeable has no basis of fact, just your opinion which is blurred by your obsession with warming. Just as you have done with BoM and pretty much every other expert that does not lean your way.


To quote what I actually said:

Quote:
My argument is that a researcher publishing before Modoki was discovered and working as a manager more recently is going to be less knowledgeable on modoki than a researcher who is actively researching the Modoki phenomenon.




Prove it Mike. It is assumption and nothing else and all because he goes against your own belief on current ENSO status. But then so do BoM and NOAA so they are clearly less skilled than yourself .


Prove it !!

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Yet again you ignore the fact that 2002 is clearly listed as modoki, with nino 3 at 1.2 and nino 4 at 0.8. With this year mostly having nino 4 above nino 3 this year is clearly more modoki like than 2002.


2002 7 -7.12
2002 8 -14.29
2002 9 -7.35
2002 10 -7.58
2002 11 -4.08
2002 12 -13.39



2018 9 -8.49
2018 10 2.61
2018 11 0.56
2018 12 9.46
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483384 - 31/12/2018 17:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3795
Loc: Buderim
Silly me. The charts for the Modoki index at Jamstec index page are not updated past 2013 so I thought they weren't updating the index. But they are updating the data files. The index for last three months available.

August: 0.56
Sept: 0.56
Oct: 0.52

And what is the treshold? From the paper on the same site which describes the index

Quote:
(seasonal standard deviations for boreal summer and winter are 0.5°C and 0.54°C, respectively). (We call an El Niño Modoki event “typical” when its amplitude of the index is equal to or greater than 0.7σ, where σ is the seasonal standard deviation.)


The threshold works out at 0.7*0.5 = 0.35 for our winter, and 0.7 * 0.54 = 0.378 for our summer. So comfortably above modoki threshold since August.

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#1483388 - 31/12/2018 17:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19003
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
My argument is that a researcher publishing before Modoki was discovered and working as a manager more recently is going to be less knowledgeable on modoki than a researcher who is actively researching the Modoki phenomenon.



Prove it Mike.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483395 - 31/12/2018 17:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3795
Loc: Buderim
If you want to believe that someone who did climate research years before modoki was discovered knows more about modoki then a researcher who discovered modoki and publishes an index clearly showing it well abovve modoki thresholds, then there is clearly no way of proving different to you.

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#1483403 - 31/12/2018 18:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3795
Loc: Buderim
On Modoki and SOI. 1990/91 had a peak modoki index of 0.75, making it one of the stronger events in history, but ONI (3 mth Nino 3.4 peaked only at 0.4). SOI for that year:

Oct +1.8
Nov -5.3
Dec -2.4
Jan +5.1
Feb 0.6

Very neutral SOI with a strong modoki event has happened before.

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#1483472 - 01/01/2019 00:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
lurker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/09/2010
Posts: 86
Loc: Aitkenvale
Guys,

I sit here and read the wonderful discussion but I am baffled that the MJO forecasts are submitted as if they are related to MJO strengths, whereas I was under the impression that the MJO charts are reflecting "confidence" on the location.

There was a former poster called "MJO Princess" a few years ago that argued that they are location/confidence charts, not location/strengths.

Or has that changed?

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#1483473 - 01/01/2019 00:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3446
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Silly me. The charts for the Modoki index at Jamstec index page are not updated past 2013 so I thought they weren't updating the index. But they are updating the data files. The index for last three months available.

August: 0.56
Sept: 0.56
Oct: 0.52

And what is the treshold? From the paper on the same site which describes the index

Quote:
(seasonal standard deviations for boreal summer and winter are 0.5°C and 0.54°C, respectively). (We call an El Niño Modoki event “typical” when its amplitude of the index is equal to or greater than 0.7σ, where σ is the seasonal standard deviation.)


The threshold works out at 0.7*0.5 = 0.35 for our winter, and 0.7 * 0.54 = 0.378 for our summer. So comfortably above modoki threshold since August.


Should have stopped at your first sentence. Aptly sums up your recent contributions. The gall attacking a NOAA climate expert because he doesn’t agree with you - wait there, I see a pattern emerging. So, let’s have your qualifications Mike. So we can judge for ourselves.

And the reason a Modoki hasn’t been declared - wait for it - is because (a) the sea isn’t in a modoki state despite your denials and (b) there is no coupling.

The debate is over. Bit like the last 2 years really.

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#1483474 - 01/01/2019 00:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: lurker]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3446
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: lurker
Guys,

I sit here and read the wonderful discussion but I am baffled that the MJO forecasts are submitted as if they are related to MJO strengths, whereas I was under the impression that the MJO charts are reflecting "confidence" on the location.

There was a former poster called "MJO Princess" a few years ago that argued that they are location/confidence charts, not location/strengths.

Or has that changed?


Nope.

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#1483477 - 01/01/2019 00:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7859
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Latest ASCAT pass shows strong westerlies from about 158E to 170W and from 1S to 7S - right through the guts of the Nino 4 region:


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#1483478 - 01/01/2019 00:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3446
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Always helpful to view things in context...as it tells the whole story not the narrative being pushed...



Looks very meridonal to me? Is there not supposed to be strong winds in the monsoon, wrapping into a developing low? Where’s the twin low in the northern hemisphere that’s required as per the papers you linked previously?

Disappointing that (a) no one applies any rigor to statements posted these days, we just lap it up & (b) those who do stop & say “hang on, doesn’t that contravene previous statements made on the matter?” are badgered into submission or labelled ‘nonsense’.

Ventrice, from my readings, is a cluey bloke, but he’s defin on one side of the climate fence, sadly. That means everything he says has to be filtered from his own biases. Plenty disagree with him, especially about his ENSO forecasting and his SSW stuff.

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#1483486 - 01/01/2019 02:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7859
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
lol

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#1483488 - 01/01/2019 06:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3795
Loc: Buderim
Kino, you are posting what a models says the winds are at 1km above the surface. Nothing wrong with the chart, and I use it all the time, just remember to keep it in the right context.

I think actual observations of what is happening at the surface as Mega posted would be more relevant.

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#1483489 - 01/01/2019 06:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3795
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino

Should have stopped at your first sentence. Aptly sums up your recent contributions. The gall attacking a NOAA climate expert because he doesn’t agree with you - wait there,


I did not attack him. I disagreed with him, because a climate scientist with better qualifications says otherwise.

The current modoki index as published by the scientist who discovered Modoki is nearly twice the minimum value requrired to qualify as a modoki.

Originally Posted By: Kino

Ventrice, from my readings, is a cluey bloke, but he’s defin on one side of the climate fence, sadly. That means everything he says has to be filtered from his own biases. Plenty disagree with him, especially about his ENSO forecasting and his SSW stuff.


Definitely see a pattern of hypocrisy here.

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#1483490 - 01/01/2019 06:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7859
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Kino, you are posting what a models says the winds are at 1km above the surface. Nothing wrong with the chart, and I use it all the time, just remember to keep it in the right context.

I think actual observations of what is happening at the surface as Mega posted would be more relevant.


Is it still defined as a WWB even if the westerlies are only occurring on one side of the equator though? That seems to be the biggest argument here.

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#1483493 - 01/01/2019 07:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mega
Latest ASCAT pass shows strong westerlies from about 158E to 170W and from 1S to 7S - right through the guts of the Nino 4 region:



The first image looks to be more in a north west direction.

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#1483503 - 01/01/2019 08:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3795
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mega


Is it still defined as a WWB even if the westerlies are only occurring on one side of the equator though? That seems to be the biggest argument here.


Do we need a rigorous definition of WWB? I think any period of westerly anomalies can be discussed, and it is a bit of a judgement call as to whether the westerlies are enough to have a noticeable impact or too small to matter.

The fact that the westerlies are only on one side of the equator is significant, and reduce the impact of the current event. However note that the WWBs to date have been more on the north side. The west and north subsurface has cooled to a little below average so a little bit more difficult than average for westerlies on the north of the equator to move this cooler heavier water. In contrast the subsurface on the south side is still significantly warmer than average so easier than average for the westerlies on the south of the equator to move this warmer lighter water. (Not so much that lighter water is easier to blow around, but because lighter water already wants to rise up and move towards the east over the cooler water without taking account westerly wind influence)

The other significance in the westerlies being south of the equator, is that this is a typical result of el ninos and how the coupling in an el nino is broken. When there is no coupling the warm water dies when the westerlies stop and trades resume. When there is coupling the westerlies don't stop and the coupling is broken by the westerlies being pushed south during the Jan-Mar period.

From memory all el ninos feature this southward displacement of westerly activity from Jan to Mar. And from memory the westerly wind bursts that have occurred without el nino in this time period have not been displaced to the south, but I'll have to wait until US govt shutdown ends to get at TAO data and double check this.

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#1483513 - 01/01/2019 09:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3795
Loc: Buderim
Actual rainfall for Dec.



Rainfall for Dec in Modoki:



I see vague similarities.

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#1483515 - 01/01/2019 09:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3446
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
You see what you want to see, as per usual.

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#1483516 - 01/01/2019 09:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
2019 needs to be better than this.

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#1483517 - 01/01/2019 09:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3795
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
You see what you want to see, as per usual.


You disagree and can't see any similarities?

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