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#1447045 - 03/01/2018 10:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 692
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Don't like those NW winds in coral sea. Must be hot on qld coast today.

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#1447048 - 03/01/2018 10:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3306
Loc: Buderim


Kelvin wave is clearly progressing and warm subsurface anomalies are now moving out of the west Pacific and into the Central Pacific.

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#1447049 - 03/01/2018 10:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1819
Loc: Kingaroy
The rains will come and when they do, we will be praying for it to stop, it's been six years since the last big wet and we also had the strongest El Nino on record in that time, sooner or later the pattern will swing the other way.

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#1447053 - 03/01/2018 10:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2636
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Despite this some are ignoring the big picture


laugh laugh laugh


So I suppose you think the big picture is the good rainfall in parts of Victoria and NSW last month, or the thousand kilometers of storms yesterday and not the poor rainfall figures for all of Eastern Australia over the last four months.


Again, factually incorrect and a gross misleading overstatement.






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#1447054 - 03/01/2018 10:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1819
Loc: Kingaroy
Apologies for the double post but could this Kelvin Wave if there is one actually strengthen the current La Nina because doesn't the subsurface cool once a Kelvin Wave has passed and a Rossby Wave comes back across the Pacific? GFS is still predicting a beauty of a trade burst.

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#1447056 - 03/01/2018 10:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2636
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
Apologies for the double post but could this Kelvin Wave if there is one actually strengthen the current La Nina because doesn't the subsurface cool once a Kelvin Wave has passed and a Rossby Wave comes back across the Pacific? GFS is still predicting a beauty of a trade burst.


yes, it does - equal and opposite reaction. That's the thing the OP never tells anyone. Always one side of the story.

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#1447057 - 03/01/2018 10:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2636
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Where are these "poor rainfall figures over the last 4 months" again?


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#1447060 - 03/01/2018 11:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1819
Loc: Kingaroy
The negative upper ocean heat content is also weakening which makes it interesting to see what happens in the next few months whether this La Nina weakens back to neutral or El Nino. Could it do something similar to what the 2015 El Nino did with a weak La Nina in the 2017/2018 season to be followed by a powerful La Nina in 2018/2019


Edited by Chris Stumer (03/01/2018 11:02)

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#1447066 - 03/01/2018 11:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Kino


Again, factually incorrect and a gross misleading overstatement.



...and that is how I will note his contribution for the entire 2017 calendar year. The first to accuse others of nitpicking data but has clearly done so himself. Not to mention the 365 day obsession with warming from WWB's that simply did not eventuate whilst ignoring all the evidence put before him.

Off to a great start for doing exactly the same in 2018 it seems. It is not going to be a major achievement forecasting the possible propagation of warm water from the subsurface in the west to the surface in the east. It has been happening for thousands of years and simply serves to highlight his contempt for other contributors in the thread.

I listened to a story on the ABC (Simon Lewis from BoM) this morning suggesting that storms are likely to continue in Eastern Australia this Summer due to high levels of humidity, particularly in the NSW /Southern Queensland cnr . To ignore the contribution from La Nina is pure ignorance. The blocking ridging pattern that became established for much of December does NOT serve in any way to dismantle that fact and it had nothing to do with an ElNino. Not a thing.

ElNino typically means a lack of humidity but then the more knowledgeable contributors (and there are many more than just 1) already know this.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1447070 - 03/01/2018 12:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 692
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
2011 LaNina obs. laNina not going to have much impact if not strong.

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#1447072 - 03/01/2018 12:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
2011 LaNina obs. laNina not going to have much impact if not strong.


BoM already said as much.

"La Niņa typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during summer, particularly in northern New South Wales and Queensland. However, with a weak event expected, this typically means less influence upon Australian rainfall. La Niņa events can also increase the likelihood of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia."


The impact was strongest as it ramped up. It is the suggestion that it won't have any that I find disturbing when the evidence already debunks that.

Interestingly this is BoM's rainfall forecast for Jan-Mar

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1447087 - 03/01/2018 13:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3306
Loc: Buderim
The facts:

For the last few months:

Dec -23.8 source BOM
Nov -3.3 source BOM
Oct +33.3 source BOM
Sep -16 source BOM

Total for complete months since nino 3.4 went below 0 (mid August) is 10mm below average.

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#1447088 - 03/01/2018 13:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3306
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
It is the suggestion that it won't have any that I find disturbing when the evidence already debunks that.



What evidence? That some places have had above average and others haven't as shown by the decile maps? That the totals for all of eastern Australia end up below average?

My forecast is for below average rainfall is speculation based on research I have posted before showing that the key areas that need to cool for La Nina to impact rainfall are further west than have cooled. The forecast from BOM for rainfall is for above average rainfall and that is good and fine. If you find that disturbing that is your problem not mine.

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#1447091 - 03/01/2018 13:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2636
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The facts:

For the last few months:

Dec -23.8 source BOM
Nov -3.3 source BOM
Oct +33.3 source BOM
Sep -16 source BOM

Total for complete months since nino 3.4 went below 0 (mid August) is 10mm below average.


I see the cherry picking continues. Why do you only chose Eastern Aus Mike? Is it because it filters out the good southern and northern values; which are also affected by ENSO?

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#1447099 - 03/01/2018 14:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3306
Loc: Buderim
Because ENSO causes increased rainfall in eastern Australia. The best southern rainfall was in Victoria so included in East Australia. Best northern rainfall was in Western Australia, and rainfall in that region is frequently opposite to ENSO regions, so should be filtered out.

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#1447101 - 03/01/2018 14:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RandomGuy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2012
Posts: 50
I have been reading this thread for quite some time now. It's always a good read so keep it up ladies and gentlemen.

I just wanted to post this short article I found quite interesting regarding the current and previous La Nina conditions.

http://ozewex.org/la-nina-can-bring-wet-weather-to-australia-but-not-always/

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#1447103 - 03/01/2018 14:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3306
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Because ENSO causes increased rainfall in eastern Australia. The best southern rainfall was in Victoria so included in East Australia. Best northern rainfall was in Western Australia, and rainfall in that region is frequently opposite to ENSO regions, so should be filtered out.



Arguably NT and SA could be added into the Eastern Australian figures. NT was about 10mm below average, and SA about 10mm above average for the 4 months, so not going to make much difference.

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#1447104 - 03/01/2018 14:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RandomGuy]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: RandomGuy
I have been reading this thread for quite some time now. It's always a good read so keep it up ladies and gentlemen.

I just wanted to post this short article I found quite interesting regarding the current and previous La Nina conditions.

http://ozewex.org/la-nina-can-bring-wet-weather-to-australia-but-not-always/



I'm surprised they are only researching this now. RWM and I discussed the water east of PNG and its affect on Eastern Australia a few years back . Thanks for sharing the link.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1447106 - 03/01/2018 14:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2636
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Because ENSO causes increased rainfall in eastern Australia. The best southern rainfall was in Victoria so included in East Australia. Best northern rainfall was in Western Australia, and rainfall in that region is frequently opposite to ENSO regions, so should be filtered out.



The BoM doesn't qualify on their site what constitutes 'eastern' 'northern' 'southern' nor 'western' so how do you know what is or is not included?

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#1447130 - 03/01/2018 16:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RandomGuy]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1617
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: RandomGuy
I have been reading this thread for quite some time now. It's always a good read so keep it up ladies and gentlemen.

I just wanted to post this short article I found quite interesting regarding the current and previous La Nina conditions.

http://ozewex.org/la-nina-can-bring-wet-weather-to-australia-but-not-always/



Thanks for the link.....would explain a lot about this current Ninas performance so far.

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