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#1451864 - 07/02/2018 22:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1787
Loc: Kingaroy
Earth.nullschool is still showing reasonable trades.

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#1451930 - 08/02/2018 19:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6934
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
High quality posts recently all. Very informative.

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#1451942 - 08/02/2018 22:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 162
Thanks to Flowin for link to skill assessment of MJO and MH on PMM index.

Looking into NPO as well ...suprised last available monthly index I can find is august 2017 and I'm pretty certain I read the update isn't due till april this year.

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#1451972 - 09/02/2018 11:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5170
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Wish you could easily retweet on here. This from Levi Cowan is interesting, could be a good heads up:

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits

Wow. GFS ensemble (and really all other models too) generates a slew of TCs near Fiji and American Samoa over the next 2 weeks, imposing a long-duration westerly wind anomaly on the equatorial Pacific up to 160W. That's a major forcing event on the ocean. Changes are coming.

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#1451974 - 09/02/2018 12:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1740
Meanwhile the trades continue to pump in a decent way across most of the ENSO areas and CFS recent runs lowers its temps the next few months... Would of thought with this huge WWB burst that models would react by upping temps but its going the other way.. Why? Cos despite the doom and gloom of this WWB most of the westerlies have been well south of the important ENSO areas with the tropical lows developing well south of the equator still allowing the easterlies to come through.
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#1451975 - 09/02/2018 12:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6978
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC & GFS look quite different...GFS way more bullish...it has strong westerlies developing along the equator of the WPAC over the next 7 days while EC keeps it well south and much weaker.

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#1451977 - 09/02/2018 13:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5170
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Meanwhile the trades continue to pump in a decent way across most of the ENSO areas and CFS recent runs lowers its temps the next few months... Would of thought with this huge WWB burst that models would react by upping temps but its going the other way.. Why? Cos despite the doom and gloom of this WWB most of the westerlies have been well south of the important ENSO areas with the tropical lows developing well south of the equator still allowing the easterlies to come through.

Good response but wondering why those who see an El Nino potentially coming are branded as the Doom and Gloom brigade. I mean, geez, this La Nina has not exactly been kind to significant areas. I'm posting on here because it's fascinating trying to work out what will happen next and why, not to bring doom and gloom into anything. The Pacific impacts us is some ways, Indian likewise, Southern Ocean likewise...and how they all interact is, from what I can see, way beyond our current (predictive) understanding. If an El Nino comes then so be it - and to forecast as much is just to state what we see as coming next. Not sure why that is doom and gloom? Ask those out west in drought for 12 months what they think of this La Nina...not all happiness out that way.

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#1451978 - 09/02/2018 13:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6978
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: KevD

Good response but wondering why those who see an El Nino potentially coming are branded as the Doom and Gloom brigade. I mean, geez, this La Nina has not exactly been kind to significant areas. I'm posting on here because it's fascinating trying to work out what will happen next and why, not to bring doom and gloom into anything. The Pacific impacts us is some ways, Indian likewise, Southern Ocean likewise...and how they all interact is, from what I can see, way beyond our current (predictive) understanding. If an El Nino comes then so be it - and to forecast as much is just to state what we see as coming next. Not sure why that is doom and gloom? Ask those out west in drought for 12 months what they think of this La Nina...not all happiness out that way.


Couldn't agree more, I agree with your recent posts too. Can't remember the last time we've seen such a strong MJO pulse through that part of the Pacific. Comparing this time to last year is like comparing apples and oranges. However queue the usual 'how dare you say anything that may point to the dreaded El-Nino word' etc etc. Frustrating to be labelled if you think one way or the other.

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#1451980 - 09/02/2018 13:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2035
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
It's people's opinions and they are allowed to have them just like others on here. I would consider another El Nino as 'doom and gloom' too actually. It wasn't that long ago that many were prophesying El Nino for the end of last year that didn't happen.

ENSO modelling appears to be reactive and not predictive IMO. The dreaded WWB that was supposed to end this La Nina didn't. That's the issue many in here have - something isn't right with the modelling. It's frustrating, as like many other aspects of the current weather, such as this unmovable ridge.

I guess the other frustrating aspect is the apparent bias towards warming - it's ALWAYS warming regardless of the fact that it was actually cooling. That makes taking into account any further 'predictions' difficult because the apparent bias is clear.


Edited by Kino (09/02/2018 13:35)

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#1451985 - 09/02/2018 14:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3061
Loc: Buderim
Now



1997



Significant westerlies anomalies are already being observed along the equator, and are forecast to continue for the forseeable future. It is also interesting to compare the current situation to the lead up to 97/98. It looks like this current WWB will be similar to the second major WWB in 97/98, so that we have WWB's comparable to no1 and no2 now. A significant difference is that while there was a surge in easterlies between the first and second WWBs leading up to 97/98, it was only about half the strength of what we have just witnessed. As the second WWB was winding up surface temps had already warmed to near 0 for most of the East Pacific.

We are at the start of what will be the 3rd in a series of strengthening WWB. The first two were followed by trade wind surges that were also stronger than anything previously. Is it possible that this WWB will be followed by an even strong trade wind surge? If so it would be hard to predict what exactly would happen. However based on the how much the subsurface has warmed so far I'd expect the current WWB to firmly push the subsurface into warm territory, and not just near neutral. Strong trade winds on top of a warm subsurface are going to struggle to do more than hold somewhere near neutral.

If there isn't a strong trade wind surge following this WWB than we are on a very similar path to 97/98. The only question then would be do we get follow up strong WWBs to continues a push towards a strong el nino like 97/98, or do the WWBs falter and push us towards a 14/15 borderline warm ENSO result.

La Nina in the short term is out of the question. But the normal pattern of back to back La Nina/cool enso events is for substantial weakening in Autumn, sometimes to the warm side of neutral, before cooling resumes later on, and it is far too early to write this off.

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#1451989 - 09/02/2018 14:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2035
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I can't see any real correlation between 1997 and now in those images Mike. The cold anomalies extend much further west than 1997 and you can see in 1997 that warming had already commenced right across ENSO zones.

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#1451997 - 09/02/2018 15:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5170
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Interesting comparison of 1997 MJO versus 2018...

1997:



2018:


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#1451998 - 09/02/2018 15:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6978
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: KevD
Interesting comparison of 1997 MJO versus 2018...

1997:



2018:



WOW!

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#1452000 - 09/02/2018 15:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3061
Loc: Buderim
I see no similarities between the two. The MJO moves much quicker though phase 6 this time around then it did in 97.

Or maybe just because I can spot a difference doesn't mean the similarities go away...

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#1452002 - 09/02/2018 15:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6978
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I see no similarities between the two. The MJO moves much quicker though phase 6 this time around then it did in 97.

Or maybe just because I can spot a difference doesn't mean the similarities go away...


What about the strength?

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#1452003 - 09/02/2018 15:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5170
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I see no similarities between the two. The MJO moves much quicker though phase 6 this time around then it did in 97.

Or maybe just because I can spot a difference doesn't mean the similarities go away...


What about the strength?

I was posting it for comparison. For me there was a significant similarity between the two - notably the very strong movement of the MJO through the Pacific.

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#1452005 - 09/02/2018 15:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 588
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
The closest similarity so far to me seems 84' 85' 2 weak LaNinas coming up to 86' of a whole year of cool neutral.

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#1452007 - 09/02/2018 16:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3061
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mega


What about the strength?


Pretty much the same.

Also the current MJO seems to be slowing down in phase 7 so slower progression through phase 7 makes up for faster progression in phase 6.

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#1452016 - 09/02/2018 17:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5170
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
2015 before the significant El Nino, again strong through the Pacific at this time of year:



Obviously some differences but posting these up here for discussion. Just appears to be some decent correlation between strong MJOs across the Pacific @ this time of year and El Ninos to follow. Appreciate we know these links already. Had a quick look at these years, wondering if there are examples of strong MJOs through the Pacific @ this time of year where we ended up with neutral or La Nina. Had a quick look through back to 1997 and cannot see any?

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#1452018 - 09/02/2018 17:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1787
Loc: Kingaroy
It's almost if the Pacific is stuck in a semi-permanent El Ninolike pattern for the past seven years. Normally the odds should be in favor of La Nina after a very strong El Nino.

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