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#1452019 - 09/02/2018 17:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6826
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I'm seeing a pattern here Kev.

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#1452097 - 10/02/2018 13:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1539
Loc: Southern Victoria
Whilst the MJO pulse is very concerning , in all the comparisons the Colours are wrong . In those comparisons the March is blue , but we are in Feb .
The Slowing and continuation through Phases 7 & 8 spells that this will significantly shift SST's . The fact that it may have come early for the Westerly's to be at maximum on the Equator maybe a saving grace . If this doesn come off and we swing wildly back towards El Nino only spells one thing . Climate acting eratically . As far as i'm aware we have never seen a wilder pattern in the ENSO cycle in measured times . Maybe this is the new norm ?

Regardless of all this , the Ocean Heat content and more so SST anomalies are significantly cooler than 97 . Ontop of this the Nth Pacific won't play ball here .
For a full Nth Pacific swing and support of what may or may not start in the Sth Pacific , thye need similar patterns . From my viewpoint we are only seeing a strengthening of the Nth Pacific Coupling at the same time as this MJO burst .

Its a classic mess . And i'm not surprised the Models are struggling .
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#1452111 - 10/02/2018 17:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 127
the link on MJO provided by Flowin earlier (Page30) may be of interest- Predictability and Prediction skill of the MJO in two operational forecasting systems...Hyemi Kim, Peter J Webster, Violeta E. Toma and Daehyun Kim...

......prediction skill varies with phase and strength in initial conditions, both systems(NECP CFSv2, ECMWF varEPS) much weaker than obs particularly stages 2+3, varEPS weaker at all stages and both generally in prediction >> too rapid a decrease in MJO amplitude and too slow a propagation speed.

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#1452120 - 10/02/2018 19:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: S .O.]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1721
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: S .O.
Whilst the MJO pulse is very concerning , in all the comparisons the Colours are wrong . In those comparisons the March is blue , but we are in Feb .
The Slowing and continuation through Phases 7 & 8 spells that this will significantly shift SST's . The fact that it may have come early for the Westerly's to be at maximum on the Equator maybe a saving grace . If this doesn come off and we swing wildly back towards El Nino only spells one thing . Climate acting eratically . As far as i'm aware we have never seen a wilder pattern in the ENSO cycle in measured times . Maybe this is the new norm ?

Regardless of all this , the Ocean Heat content and more so SST anomalies are significantly cooler than 97 . Ontop of this the Nth Pacific won't play ball here .
For a full Nth Pacific swing and support of what may or may not start in the Sth Pacific , thye need similar patterns . From my viewpoint we are only seeing a strengthening of the Nth Pacific Coupling at the same time as this MJO burst .

Its a classic mess . And i'm not surprised the Models are struggling .


Agree - totally different animals. Interesting that we've had 2 possibly 3 mega MJO pulses this season. Very unusual. Consequence of the abnormally cold SST's off eastern Africa?

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#1452159 - 11/02/2018 10:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1747
Loc: Kingaroy
CFS is still staying on the cool side of neutral. Three massive MJO pulses, there will be a reaction to them.

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#1452311 - 12/02/2018 11:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2930
Loc: Buderim
Tropical Cyclone activity in the Australian region isn't totally dead, we have Tropical Storm Sanba. Now to just get it in the correct hemisphere....



Edited by Mike Hauber (12/02/2018 11:23)

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#1452326 - 12/02/2018 13:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4417
Loc: Wynnum
And once again like Dec-Jan as that Tropical Storm continues its movement west it will hi jack our monsoonal flow which is currently weak anyway..
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#1452372 - 12/02/2018 17:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6826
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Ex. TC #2 for the season to slam into NZ next week. Hopefully puts another dent in those abnormally warm anomalies in the south Tasman Sea.

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#1452408 - 12/02/2018 22:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1747
Loc: Kingaroy
I wonder if a study is being made on the status of the part of the thermohaline circulation that runs through the South East Asia region? if the warm current has shifted it's track then it could explain why we're seeing tropical activity where there shouldn't be.

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#1452416 - 12/02/2018 23:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: retired weather man]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1721
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
And once again like Dec-Jan as that Tropical Storm continues its movement west it will hi jack our monsoonal flow which is currently weak anyway..


Doubt it....forecast deep low / TC over northern Aus will be stronger and pull monsoon down again.

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#1452418 - 12/02/2018 23:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23604
Loc: Townsville
To where? Darwin and Broome.

Only reason the monsoon will be enhanced is because of the forecast Tropical Cyclone. Basically nothing to do with a strong monsoon forming.

A strong Monsoon should get to eastern QLD. Havent seen that in a while....or years.


Edited by Dawgggg (12/02/2018 23:19)
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#1452420 - 12/02/2018 23:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1721
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Strong monsoons can form as a result of tropical lows or in response to other drivers. It doesnít disqualify them. Just because Townsville doesnít see rain also doesnít disqualify or downgrade monsoonal strength.


Edited by Kino (12/02/2018 23:33)

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#1452438 - 13/02/2018 07:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 659
Loc: Townsville
The amazing lack of rain across the majority of eastern Aus might not disqualify the monsoon trough but it sure as hell questions the effects of this La Nada. This is more than a Townsville thing. Half way through February with nothing major on the way is ridiculous. Itís drier than last year!

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#1452441 - 13/02/2018 08:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2930
Loc: Buderim
The flooding rains monsoonal rains for February aren't happening. Obviously its March when the flooding monsoon rains are coming.

At least March is likely to have a more favourable MJO outlook with MJO likely to arrive mid to late March. That will probably be the last big role of the dice.

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#1452447 - 13/02/2018 08:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6826
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Definitely not just Townsville:


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#1452452 - 13/02/2018 09:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 659
Loc: Townsville
This Townsville nonsense is ridiculous. We donít even bring up our city till kino or CF tries to use it to say stop looking in your backyard. Yet the evidence is there that the majority of QLD is struggling this wet season. Thatís s bit bigger than Townsville isnít it!

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#1452453 - 13/02/2018 09:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23604
Loc: Townsville
You are incoherent if you think this is about Townsville.
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1452454 - 13/02/2018 09:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1138
Loc: Toowoomba
Also parts of NSW. Most of the Hunter Valley is in a shocking state.

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#1452459 - 13/02/2018 09:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25052
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Kino
Strong monsoons can form as a result of tropical lows or in response to other drivers. It doesnít disqualify them. Just because Townsville doesnít see rain also doesnít disqualify or downgrade monsoonal strength.


not sure why you are obsessed with Townsville. If you care to re read the original posters comment, "eastern Queensland" covers a rather large area, "most" of which, is not Townsville. In your own words, "its just a dot on the map".
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2018 total - 144.2mm (274mm)
February 2018 total - 36.8mm (283mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 181.0mm (1122mm)

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#1452476 - 13/02/2018 12:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mick10]
scott12 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 859
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: Kino
Strong monsoons can form as a result of tropical lows or in response to other drivers. It doesnít disqualify them. Just because Townsville doesnít see rain also doesnít disqualify or downgrade monsoonal strength.


not sure why you are obsessed with Townsville.


Don't you get it yet Mick..

Everywhere in QLD except dry old Townsville is under the unrelenting grip of La Nina..!....Just ask Kino and Coldie... crazy grin

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