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#1461415 - 11/04/2018 07:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3045
Loc: Buderim
Warm water volume from TAO:

For March this year: 10.2 (*10^14)

March in some previous el nino years:

2014: 16.9 (peak 18 in April)
2009: 2.8 (peak 13 in June)
2006: 1.4 (peak 11.9 in October)
2002: 6.5 (peak 16.6 in October)
1997: 22.4 (peak 26.7 in May)

Three years that didn't make it to el nino:
2012: 2.9 (peak 10.0 in June)
2017: 1.1 (peak 2.8 in May)
2008: 7.1 (peak 11.9 in June)

The figure for April so far is 13.8, which is warmer than the highest warm water volume for the selected failed el nino years, and higher than peak for about half of the el nino years.

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#1461439 - 11/04/2018 13:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4440
Loc: Brisbane
Definitely looking more like a weak Modoki event at this stage.

If this is the case I could see an early end in late Summer or Autumn of 2019 with transition to a moderate to strong La Nina event.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1461457 - 11/04/2018 16:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3045
Loc: Buderim
My thinking at the moment on Modoki:

El Nino development is initiated by WWB in west Pacific. This has two impacts - firstly a slow movement of warm water from far west towards the dateline + local surface warming effects, and secondly a much faster Kelvin wave that warms the subsurface, and causes a warming in the far east as the Kelvin wave impacts the surface in the far east.

The warming in the east is stronger, and faster. However the strongest coupling between SSTs and zonal winds is in the west . There SSTs are close to or above 28 degrees so changes in SST result in significant changes in tropical convection patterns. Further east waters are too cool to impact tropical convection patterns except in very strong el ninos.

So it is much easier for enhanced easterly trade winds to interrupt el nino development in the far east, and with the strong vertical temperature gradients, and higher average wind speed, any enhanced trade wind has a stronger immediate impact on surface cooling in the east, and a modoki pattern is then set up.

Currently Kelvin wave is reaching the far east, and the eastern warm anomaly is building at a good rate. However in the west the westerly wind anomalies have not reached the dateline very much and progression of surface anomalies towards the dateline is delayed. I'd say we are currently leaning towards a canonical el nino, but it will depend critically on how trade winds behave in the central to east Pacific in the next month or three. Perhaps the delayed development of the dateline warm pool will give a greater scope for interruption by trade wind surges in the central Pacific that could trigger a modoki condition.

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#1461460 - 11/04/2018 16:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10098
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Mike - I found that to be a good simple explanation of your thinking and analysis.

Which is good because I'm often confused in this topic and I read in here regularly, I thought I had a simple understanding a few years ago but contributors in here took the topic to far more detail than I could handle smile That's a reflection on me not the posters smile

I'm never sure "who is correct" but reading something structured like the above helps me immensely in forming an opinion myself or understanding why someone has a certain opinion.

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#1461480 - 11/04/2018 20:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7396
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
The words "Climate Driver," from my perspective, would imply, over a period of time, any mechanism driving, or transition between, phases of some feature [or more than one] in the atmosphere which means it is a very broad topic, and, in all fairness, would not exclude insight into anything that would improve our understanding of the real workings of the natural environment around us smile .


Edited by Seira (11/04/2018 20:13)

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#1461497 - 12/04/2018 01:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1827
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Seira
The words "Climate Driver," from my perspective, would imply, over a period of time, any mechanism driving, or transition between, phases of some feature [or more than one] in the atmosphere which means it is a very broad topic, and, in all fairness, would not exclude insight into anything that would improve our understanding of the real workings of the natural environment around us smile .


Completely agree, but then again what is a driver and what are just the observations of it's effects ?
Enso might be an excellent indicator, but is it a "Driver" or is Enso just an artifact or observation of what is driving the climate ?
Just as an example we had just last year a near unanimous consensus that we were headed for another El Nino, until we weren't. That consensus was built upon previous observations and Modelling, and it would seem that prior to realizing it, they all (the consensus) got it wrong.

Now sure, there are very skilled people that are able to forecast day's in advance when the conditions are conducive towards such predictive skill, but even with the best current models accuracy drops off as the model gets further off into the 7-10 day period.

But when nearly all the model's get it wrong consistently and then nearly all the models realign again as current observations are imputed into them.
One has to ask how good are they ?

Many will argue that they generally get it right, but quite often that seems to happen after the event has started and observations change the former predictions, IE a long term 50/50 changes to fit the current pattern.

Demonstrating forecast Skill, as opposed to Having skill in forecasting based on observations and modeling seems to be a sort of catch 22 type scenario. We can estimate how long it will take a bunch of Ice Cubes to melt out in the Sun based on former observations, but when it comes to how long they will last in a Margareta Cocktail at differing strengths of Alcohol added and the amount of Salt in the mix combined with the speed of intake of the drinker of said Cocktail..... etc etc etc... Things change right, and who is adjusting the results for all the differentials between the Ice Cubes out in the Sun and those in the Cocktail ?

An inherently chaotic system with millions of of different local climates and countless more micro climates, temperature differentials on opposing sides of a single mountain or local elevation, humidity, forest cover, ground cover, soil type geology, proximity to Ocean, and yet we think we can cover all of that with a a designated temperature to 100ths of a degree as an Ideal proxy temperature to measure any change with ?

And people place their trust with organizations that tell us not only can they give us a Global temperature but they can also tell us with accuracy what will happen next year as well ?

But are unable to release a Cyclone update in real time, on time ?

Yeah!

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#1461510 - 12/04/2018 08:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4486
Loc: Wynnum
Well said Marakai..
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96)YTD558.4(527.3),

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#1461515 - 12/04/2018 08:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1909
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Nailed it Marakai!

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#1461517 - 12/04/2018 09:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10098
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
And I enjoyed reading Marakai's post as well smile

I have no bias towards any particular view and enjoy reading the reasoning behind a comment. Especially when it's simply stated so my tiny brain can understand it. smile

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#1461521 - 12/04/2018 09:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: marakai]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3045
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: marakai



Just as an example we had just last year a near unanimous consensus that we were headed for another El Nino, until we weren't. That consensus was built upon previous observations and Modelling, and it would seem that prior to realizing it, they all (the consensus) got it wrong.


There was no consensus of an el nino:

BOM stated a roughly 50% chance of an el nino forming

Quote:
The tropical Pacific remains neutral with respect to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, there are signs that El Niño may develop in 2017, with the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status at El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means there is around a 50% chance of El Niño developing in 2017, which is approximately twice the normal likelihood.


NOAA said the same

Quote:
ENSO-neutral and El Niño are nearly equally favored during the Northern Hemisphere
summer and fall 2017.


Those who want to criticise the models for being wrong seem to always be quite inaccurate about what the models actually predicted.

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#1461524 - 12/04/2018 09:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1909
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Tsk tsk Mike, archives are always your friend....February last year (of course there are also 100 or more posts like this I could have quoted)




And again in March



And
Originally Posted By: Mega
Well the models still aren't backing off El-Nino. March UKMET and JAMSTEC still show very strong El-Nino conditions developing this year. Surely they can't get it so wrong just a couple of months from the predictability barrier?


And again late March posted by Snowy Hibbo

Quote:
NASA GMAO = Moderate-Strong El Niño by Spring
CFS = Borderline El Niño by Spring
JMA = Warm Neutral by Winter
POAMA = Moderate-Strong El Niño by Spring
ECMWF = Weak El Niño by Winter
UKMO = Moderate El Niño by Winter
Chinese model = Borderline El Niño by Spring
Met France = Strong El Niño by Winter


And then by you, Mike
Originally Posted By: Mike

Nino 3.4 index now up to its highest value since the start of the year (just barely).

So much for a significant cooling that the models had failed to predict


Then of course, the numerous posts where you quote models predicting El Nino which you also forecast.

Seems your glass house has plenty of shattered panes now.



Edited by Kino (12/04/2018 09:41)

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#1461527 - 12/04/2018 09:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3045
Loc: Buderim
Thats not a consensus of el nino. Consensus means all predictions.

Some of the model predictions are for el nino, and some are for neutral.


And yes, some posters had been criticising the model predictions of warming from late in 2016, and there was substantial warming through the early part of 2016. The models had been proven right in that case, and the critics of the models were wrong. The relevant model prediction for that comment:



Model critics could claim a small victory from predictions such as this:



Where the actual result is a little way outside the model prediction range. However such cases are quite rare, more common is the previous case, and in this case the claim of a model consensus of el nino is clearly an exaggeration.

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#1461528 - 12/04/2018 10:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1909
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Consensus:

Originally Posted By: Mirriam Webster Dictionary
A general agreement; the judgment arrived at by most of those concerned


So, the criticism was warranted. 14 out of 16 models agreed - that's consensus. The other 2 would be classified as outliers.

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#1461529 - 12/04/2018 10:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3045
Loc: Buderim
The full definition according to Mirriam Webster Dictionary.

Quote:
Definition of consensus
1 a : general agreement : unanimity
the consensus of their opinion, based on reports … from the border —John Hersey
b : the judgment arrived at by most of those concerned the consensus was to go ahead
2 : group solidarity in sentiment and belief


Why did you remove the word unaminity which means 100%?

And no 14 out of 16 models did not agree on el nino. El nino is not warmer than 0, but warmer than 0.8 for a month, or warmer than 0.5 for an extended period. When the majority of models are peaking in the 0.5 to 1 range that is roughly 50% chance of neutral, 50% chance of el nino, which is reflected by the summaries I quoted from BOM and NCEP.

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#1461530 - 12/04/2018 10:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3045
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Seems your glass house has plenty of shattered panes now.



And if you want to talk about glass houses, from Dec 28:

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Pedro Victor
So, can we say that the current La Niña has not yet reached its peak?

(I’m new here LOL)


Not IMO.






Looks like my predictions of warming from late last year are turning true, and your predictions to the contrary (I remember at least one other statement) have turned out incorrect.

At least when the trend turned to cooling mid last year I could see it coming (if only a couple weeks out) and my last comment predicting that warming would continue was a few weeks before the peak.

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#1461532 - 12/04/2018 11:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1909
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Typical MO - proven false, create a distraction and attack a completely off-topic point. Marakai was/is 100% correct.

Least my opinion was/is arguable.

The claim of "warming" is always right at some point of the year - any ENSO cycle has cooling and warming as part of it's natural cycle. It's sufficiently vague enough to never be right or never be wrong - the true teflon opinion.

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#1461539 - 12/04/2018 11:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3045
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Typical MO - proven false, create a distraction and attack a completely off-topic point.


Talking about yourself?

Maraki is totally false in claiming there was a consensus of el nino forecast.

When you brought up my past post

Quote:
Nino 3.4 index now up to its highest value since the start of the year (just barely).

So much for a significant cooling that the models had failed to predict


That had nothing to do with the topic at hand, and was you trying to create a distraction, referring to a statement that at the time was 100% correct.

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#1461543 - 12/04/2018 11:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1909
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Marakai gave an opinion that ENSO models are reactive ergo low value - gave an example from last season where they had consensus that we were headed to an El Nino.

You attacked them for being inaccurate and said that ENSO models are reliable - I then provided examples showing Marakai wasn't inaccurate and also showing an example of where you attacked the models for being wrong/inaccurate.

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#1461545 - 12/04/2018 11:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3045
Loc: Buderim
Maraiki said a lot of stuff, which included the claim that there was a consensus that we were headed towards an el nino.

I ignored most of what Marakai had to say, but pointed out there was no consensus of an el nino, and quoted the BOM and NCEP stating a 50% chance of el nino.

Quote:
You attacked them for being inaccurate and said that ENSO models are reliable - I then provided examples showing Marakai wasn't inaccurate and also showing an example of where you attacked the models for being wrong/inaccurate.


Huh??

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#1461551 - 12/04/2018 13:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6947
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
Tsk tsk Mike, archives are always your friend....February last year (of course there are also 100 or more posts like this I could have quoted)




And again in March



And
Originally Posted By: Mega
Well the models still aren't backing off El-Nino. March UKMET and JAMSTEC still show very strong El-Nino conditions developing this year. Surely they can't get it so wrong just a couple of months from the predictability barrier?


And again late March posted by Snowy Hibbo

Quote:
NASA GMAO = Moderate-Strong El Niño by Spring
CFS = Borderline El Niño by Spring
JMA = Warm Neutral by Winter
POAMA = Moderate-Strong El Niño by Spring
ECMWF = Weak El Niño by Winter
UKMO = Moderate El Niño by Winter
Chinese model = Borderline El Niño by Spring
Met France = Strong El Niño by Winter


And then by you, Mike
Originally Posted By: Mike

Nino 3.4 index now up to its highest value since the start of the year (just barely).

So much for a significant cooling that the models had failed to predict


Then of course, the numerous posts where you quote models predicting El Nino which you also forecast.

Seems your glass house has plenty of shattered panes now.



I have to agree. One thing I learned from watching ENSO last year is NOT to rely so heavily on these models particularly at this time of year before we've even reached the predictability barrier. Exactly the reason why despite people calling for El-Nino this year, I simply can't jump onboard with that after what happened last year.

Mike, not sure how you can deny that the consensus by these models was towards El-Nino last year...have a good look around social media etc...there have been several Mets on twitter commenting on how poorly they performed prior to the predictability barrier last year. In fact I'm yet to really see anyone but yourself defending them!

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