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#1464815 - 01/06/2018 23:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowies]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 631
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Snowies
I'm no expert on climate drivers (or english after my first effort to write this) - but I do know a lot about having no credibility and I'm pretty sure credibility left this 'discussion' 30 pages ago - it was quite interesting at one point...
again, in August last year.

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#1464819 - 02/06/2018 05:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
So regardless of the evidence, one bases their forecasts on personal feelings and agenda. Credibility = gone.


No. I just talk less when the bandwagon is set for cooling. Have you said anything about the warming that has occurred over the last few months? Seems like you do the same thing.

I talk when I feel like I can add something to the conversation - which is often a different opinion to others.

A page ago you were complaining about how you just try and post the facts and get attacked for it. The thread had been very quiet for a while, i post an update about how the warming is going and the result - a barrage of attacks mostly from you. Do you have a forecast of your own, or are you just here to be nasty?

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#1464820 - 02/06/2018 06:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4464
Loc: Brisbane
If you'd asked me a month ago would there be an El Nino before the end of the year I would have responded with a "possibly but a long way from being certain".

Looking at developments over the past months I would have to say a weak El Nino is now looking likely but I think the follow up from that is likely to be a strong La Nina in 2019.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1464827 - 02/06/2018 09:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2320
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
So regardless of the evidence, one bases their forecasts on personal feelings and agenda. Credibility = gone.


No. I just talk less when the bandwagon is set for cooling. Have you said anything about the warming that has occurred over the last few months? Seems like you do the same thing.

I talk when I feel like I can add something to the conversation - which is often a different opinion to others.

A page ago you were complaining about how you just try and post the facts and get attacked for it. The thread had been very quiet for a while, i post an update about how the warming is going and the result - a barrage of attacks mostly from you. Do you have a forecast of your own, or are you just here to be nasty?



Actually, I have mentioned the warming, which letís be factual occurs every single year because it isnít always cooling, just like iit isnít always warming. Iíve never seen you ever mention cooling. But whether it gets to El NiŮo status Iím not yet convinced. But itís looking ominous I will definitely agree. But last year did the same until it clicked over dramatically into cooling, which you never accepted or admitted.

Show me one recent post where I have attacked you Mike. Pointing out or asking questions about your inconsistencies in your arguments or logic isnít attacking you, itís called debate which is what is supposedly allowed.

As for nasty - you may want to take your own advice.

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#1464832 - 02/06/2018 10:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Show me one recent post where I have attacked you Mike.


Quote:
Never ceases to amaze me how CFS forecasts are rubbished when they favour cool/La Nina; yet now they favour warm/El Nino they're suddenly accurate and trustworthy. One of life's great mysteries it would seem.


After I mention the GFS forecast, make no comment about how accurate it is or isnt, and also discuss the other models. models.

Quote:
So regardless of the evidence, one bases their forecasts on personal feelings and agenda. Credibility = gone.


Because i admit to not talking as much when it is cooling.

Not just personal attacks, but personal attacks based on misrepresentation of what I say.


Edited by Mike Hauber (02/06/2018 10:43)

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#1464834 - 02/06/2018 10:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
But whether it gets to El NiŮo status Iím not yet convinced. But itís looking ominous I will definitely agree.


So do you disagree with my assessment that el nino is most likely but not guaranteed or not?

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#1464839 - 02/06/2018 13:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Well we can safely rule out a La-Nina this year, and it seems unlikely we'll see any sort of cooling at this stage. I am interested to see what happens at the end of this decade personally. Two strong Ninas from 98 - 2000 followed by a weak one in 2001, and a strong La-Nina in 2010 followed by a moderate one in 2011. I am curious to see whether that trend continues.

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#1464840 - 02/06/2018 14:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2320
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mega
Well we can safely rule out a La-Nina this year, and it seems unlikely we'll see any sort of cooling at this stage. I am interested to see what happens at the end of this decade personally. Two strong Ninas from 98 - 2000 followed by a weak one in 2001, and a strong La-Nina in 2010 followed by a moderate one in 2011. I am curious to see whether that trend continues.


Agree, though itís looking more like the 80ís IMO - which finished with a pretty massive back to back La NiŮa across nearly 18 months and substantial country-wide flooding:

Quote:
Flooding was a regular occurrence during this La NiŮa, with flooding in Adelaide in May 1988, NSW, northern SA and western Queensland during July 1988, southeastern Queensland in September 1988, SA in March 1989 and central Queensland during April to May 1989. One of the more notable floods occurred in Victoria during November and December 1988 (Figure 5), with widespread flash flooding, particularly in the Melbourne and Gippsland areas. Several rivers broke their banks.

In December 1988 following the flooding, over 700 cases of Ross River virus were reported in Victoria, with the main affected area being the Gippsland region. In April 1989, following heavy rains in northeast Tasmania almost 60 cases of Ross River virus were reported.

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#1464861 - 02/06/2018 20:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mega
Well we can safely rule out a La-Nina this year, and it seems unlikely we'll see any sort of cooling at this stage.


I don't think we can 100% rule out la nina, although I think any significant cooling is unlikely.

Compare current conditions to last year. Models are forecasting similar, and slightly cooler. Subsurface is significantly warmer, but surface is cooler. Last year the warmer surface made continued westerly activity more likely than this year. The cooler subsurface was a wild card. If westerly activity continued upwelling would have been blocked and the subsurface would have had little impact. But with enough of a trade wind burst it could come to the surface easily and then switch things around. Although the mystery to me is that the trade wind burst that was followed by significant cooling did not appear much different from previous bursts which had no effect. Subsurface cool water did not seem stronger or closer to the surface which would have allowed it to be drawn to the surface by a burst similar in strength to previous burst which had failed. Some difference somewhere but I was never able to find it. Best guess being stronger westerlies just before the trade wind surge giving a swing effect.

This year significant subsurface warmth means any trade wind burst should have less cooling impact. But less surface warmth means trade wind bursts are more likely. Also the warm subsurface is now starting to be stacked in the east so the Pacific is slightly favoring cool kelvin waves over warm kelvin waves.

Consider a scenario where the westerly winds forecast in the next week or two fail to appear, and trades continue to blow near normal for the next month. The warm subsurface would erode rapidly as the current Kelvin waves pass through. The surface would warm up some as the last of the kelvin wave has its impact and we'd be quite similar to the same time last year by July.

One significant difference might be the subsurface near 5 N, and central East Pacific. I've always had a feeling this spot might matter after a very strong subsurface cold pool in this spot in 2008 preceded a reversal of a warming trend at the time. This time last year that spot was quite cool, and currently it is quite warm. Possible significance is that it might be a sign of how much warm water the counter equatorial current is pushing into the East Pacific.

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#1464862 - 02/06/2018 22:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 185
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


One significant difference might be the subsurface near 5 N, and central East Pacific. I've always had a feeling this spot might matter after a very strong subsurface cold pool in this spot in 2008 preceded a reversal of a warming trend at the time. This time last year that spot was quite cool, and currently it is quite warm. Possible significance is that it might be a sign of how much warm water the counter equatorial current is pushing into the East Pacific.


Interestingly this paper https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-00244-2 from March of last year(outdated browser issue for me - it wont down load on link this time around - but should be ok for current browsers)
posits two specific "hotspots" but for surface currents. The authors propose variability of surface current at these locations offers short lead time prediction of the July 3.4 index with prediction skill superior to warm water volume.I cant recall if they were looking specifically for modoki events.

April's surface current anomalies dont align with the region's nominated. I think they would if the westward anomalies on the equator were at 5 south instead of the equator(and the ECC migrated in tandem).


Should it be anticipated that the ECC will tend to migrate equatorward from it's April latitude band?May's surface current anomalies will be available soon to help with picture here

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#1464875 - 03/06/2018 09:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
The paper opens fine for me. The hotspots the author talks about are much further west than the location I am talking about - roughly 140W.

I suspect these hotspots are closely related to Kelvin wave activity. I have noticed that strong kelvin wave activity correlates to cooling in the norther hot spot as water moves from west to east - warm anomalies move out of this hot spot into the nino 3.4 region, not directly, but the changes in currents and upwelling favour warming in nino 3.4, and cooling in the norther hot spot region.

Surprising to me that the southern hot spot goes the opposite direction. This would seem to hold back el nino development by retaining warm water in the west, and I have no idea why it would happen.

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#1464986 - 04/06/2018 23:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2320
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And another decent volcanic eruption in Guatemala - sure is a tonne of ash being pumped upwards.

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#1464993 - 05/06/2018 02:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1842
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Mega
Well we can safely rule out a La-Nina this year, and it seems unlikely we'll see any sort of cooling at this stage.


I don't think we can 100% rule out la nina, although I think any significant cooling is unlikely.

Compare current conditions to last year. Models are forecasting similar, and slightly cooler. Subsurface is significantly warmer, but surface is cooler. Last year the warmer surface made continued westerly activity more likely than this year. The cooler subsurface was a wild card. If westerly activity continued upwelling would have been blocked and the subsurface would have had little impact. But with enough of a trade wind burst it could come to the surface easily and then switch things around. Although the mystery to me is that the trade wind burst that was followed by significant cooling did not appear much different from previous bursts which had no effect. Subsurface cool water did not seem stronger or closer to the surface which would have allowed it to be drawn to the surface by a burst similar in strength to previous burst which had failed. Some difference somewhere but I was never able to find it. Best guess being stronger westerlies just before the trade wind surge giving a swing effect.

This year significant subsurface warmth means any trade wind burst should have less cooling impact. But less surface warmth means trade wind bursts are more likely. Also the warm subsurface is now starting to be stacked in the east so the Pacific is slightly favoring cool kelvin waves over warm kelvin waves.

Consider a scenario where the westerly winds forecast in the next week or two fail to appear, and trades continue to blow near normal for the next month. The warm subsurface would erode rapidly as the current Kelvin waves pass through. The surface would warm up some as the last of the kelvin wave has its impact and we'd be quite similar to the same time last year by July.

One significant difference might be the subsurface near 5 N, and central East Pacific. I've always had a feeling this spot might matter after a very strong subsurface cold pool in this spot in 2008 preceded a reversal of a warming trend at the time. This time last year that spot was quite cool, and currently it is quite warm. Possible significance is that it might be a sign of how much warm water the counter equatorial current is pushing into the East Pacific.


I've lurked over a number of years here due to different interests than most people have here, IE: Human evolution and the effects of Climate on that in the past, so my interest go's back tens of thousands of years rather than decades or the concept of recorded weather.

My interest lies in the multi thousand year scales, and the actual change of habitat caused by climate change.

I am guilty of interfering in the subject started by Coldfont with this post and do apologize but honestly don't feel that you can have an open discussion of this subject without including the ground zero subject of climate change.

In my honest opinion , you really cant exclude his subject from an open discussion of this subject if you hope to be taken seriously.

Even weather itself is subject to the influences of climate.

Weatherzone ???? the Largest weather site on the Planet.....,,,,,That refuses t debate the Weather ???? Strange but True.


Edited by marakai (05/06/2018 02:06)

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#1464999 - 05/06/2018 07:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1204
Loc: Toowoomba
Just look at the stories about the current drought appearing in the regional papers, such as the latest one. The comments, as usual, degenerated into insults and blaming etc, about that subject. It just cannot be discussed rationally.

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#1465053 - 05/06/2018 18:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 993
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Kino, I wonder how much all of the ash is adding to the albedo effect? Doesnít the ash have to get a certain distance up in the atmosphere to have a real effect? I hear conflicting stories on this.
Yes Pete, I agree with you on your statement.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1465097 - 06/06/2018 11:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
How's that Positive IOD going? Latest IOD index -0.34, strong nw infeeds from the Indian ocean, parts of the Gascoyne in WA experiencing their wettest June day on record yesterday.. Still thinking Positive IOD Cutofflow?
_________________________
Come and check out my weather page on facebook https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc?ref=hl

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#1465100 - 06/06/2018 12:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2320
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
How's that Positive IOD going? Latest IOD index -0.34, strong nw infeeds from the Indian ocean, parts of the Gascoyne in WA experiencing their wettest June day on record yesterday.. Still thinking Positive IOD Cutofflow?


...and models starting to hint a a decent NW cloudband + cutoff low scenario across the SE in response to improved moisture availability.

But I suspect you already know the answer wink

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#1465101 - 06/06/2018 12:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2320
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Yes Kino, I wonder how much all of the ash is adding to the albedo effect? Doesnít the ash have to get a certain distance up in the atmosphere to have a real effect? I hear conflicting stories on this.
Yes Pete, I agree with you on your statement.



Warwick - absolutely, the great unknown at this stage , hence why longer term climate models are at best like reading tarot cards.

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#1465115 - 06/06/2018 14:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Yes Kino, I wonder how much all of the ash is adding to the albedo effect? Doesnít the ash have to get a certain distance up in the atmosphere to have a real effect? I hear conflicting stories on this.
Yes Pete, I agree with you on your statement.



The ash/sulphur has greater impact if it reaches the stratosphere - meaning it is above the normal weather systems and not able to be rained out within a few weeks.

Many of the volcanos which make news as major eruptions are much smaller than the volcanos which can have a significant short term impact on the climate. For instance the EyjafjallajŲkull eruption was a 4 on the VEI scale, and Pinatubo, which cooled global temps by a fraction of a degree for a few years in 1991 was a 6. A VEI of 6 means as 100x as much material injected to the atmosphere.

Seems pretty obvious to me that the Guatemala volcano is another run of the mill eruption that occurs every few months to year or two and won't have any measurable impact on the climate. Except of course the eruption is not over yet and could get bigger.

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#1465118 - 06/06/2018 15:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2320
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Run of the mill volcanic eruption? No. Bali is, for sure.

The Guatemalan eruption was their worst in 100 years and killed 65. This isn't your yearly event. Haven't found a VEI for it as yet (seems to have not been classified) but it is far from over according to sources.

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