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#1465122 - 06/06/2018 16:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Remember, it's supposed to be warmer & drier peep's

Quote:
Melbourne shivers through coldest start to winter in 36 years, Bureau of Meteorology says
By James Hancock, Wednesday June 6, 2018 - 14:05 EST
Winter is meant to be cold, but Melburnians could be forgiven for finding it hard to get out of bed so far this season.

The city has recorded its coldest start to June since 1982, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

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#1465123 - 06/06/2018 16:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8574
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
We are afterall only a week into winter, but despite this I don't believe it'll turn out warmer and drier. The tides should start turning now after such a prolonged dry spell, the NW infeeds are back, WA is being hammered front after front, things are looking up. I suppose BoM think a high will sit in the tasman for most of winter bringing in the warmer day and night temps, but I don't think this will happen either.

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#1465137 - 06/06/2018 21:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
I've seen it happen a few times where Sth West WA gets flogged buy fronts in Winter before they head Sth East below Tasmania.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1465139 - 06/06/2018 21:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Long Road Home]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
We are afterall only a week into winter, but despite this I don't believe it'll turn out warmer and drier. The tides should start turning now after such a prolonged dry spell, the NW infeeds are back, WA is being hammered front after front, things are looking up. I suppose BoM think a high will sit in the tasman for most of winter bringing in the warmer day and night temps, but I don't think this will happen either.


Clearly was tongue in cheek - but my point stands that the BoM muffed the outlook. You canít have a warmer day and warmer nights plus drier. Warmer days, yes, but cooler nights as that would equate to higher pressure.

Colder days, warmer nights = cloudier nights, which would indicate more moisture and not as dry.

Shall be interesting to see at the end of Winter.

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#1465140 - 06/06/2018 22:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8574
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
It's possible if you had a stagnant high cell sitting in the northern Tasman, this would invigorate a more northerly airstream, which can be drier and making days and nights warmer. But I don't believe this will happen anyway - the outlooks don't have a good success rate given they are just a historical model. I do recall it did well predicting last years wet winter, or was that the year before (can't remember), but that outlook had almost the whole country covered in a 70-80% chance of above avg falls.

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#1465155 - 07/06/2018 07:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3306
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino

Clearly was tongue in cheek - but my point stands that the BoM muffed the outlook. You canít have a warmer day and warmer nights plus drier.


Yes you can, and we did in April. Anomalies for Australia:

Maximum temp 3.17 deg warmer than average
Minimum temp 1.58 deg warmer than average
Rainfall 20.4 mm drier than average

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#1465167 - 07/06/2018 10:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3306
Loc: Buderim
NASA GMAO has dramatically warmed its forecast. We now have all four major models forecasting warm neutral or el nino. JMA is the most conservative and appears to be leaning more towards neutral than el nino.

A solid warm tongue has built in the far east, but cool anomalies remain near the dateline. Its the water near the dateline that has the strongest impact on our climate, so as long as this pattern continues there might not be much negative impact on our rainfall.



Forecasts suggest a sustained period of westerly anomalies starting in the next day or so. Combined with the recent warming, and CFS/NASA switching their forecasts to el nino it seems that odds of an el nino are becoming quite short now.

One thing that may slow all this down is the recent period of enhanced trades. Not overly strong, but with warm water piled in the east the subsurface is starting to become stacked in favour of cool Kelvin waves, and TAO data suggests a weak cool Kelvin wave was initiated.


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#1465171 - 07/06/2018 11:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5197
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
From Ben Noll on Twitter:

Some key takeaways from the new ECMWF seasonal:

-70% of ensemble members indicate at least a moderate #ElNiŮo.
-10 of the 50 ECMWF ensemble members (20%) indicate a strong #ElNiŮo event by December 2018.
-Last month, 3 members had a strong event.
-This time last year (forecast for the end of 2017), 1 member had a strong event (#LaNiŮa eventuated).

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#1465187 - 07/06/2018 17:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4745
Loc: Wynnum
Its already started.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct132.8(95)YTD854.4(928.6)

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#1465196 - 07/06/2018 18:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
RC Online   content
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2341
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
so as long as this pattern continues there might not be much negative impact on our rainfall.



I will be honest and say since we have not had any decent rainy seasons for four years, I am not sure a negative impact would be anything different to what we have had in the recent past.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...48month&area=qd

Remove the anomalous rain events and there would be a lot more red there.

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#1465287 - 09/06/2018 09:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 204

The PMM index(sst and wind elements) has been persistently and fairly strongly positive since at least Nov last year. A positive index is usually linked to El Nino conditions.

Li Zhang, Ping Chang and Link Ji "Linking the Pacific Meridional Mode to Enso:Coupled Model Analysis" (Journal Of Climate Volume 22), in long run simulations found that 66% of generated El Ninos had MM event precursors(MM-ENSO).They noted that this approximate ratio was also reflected in the observational record. About 40% of MM events did not lead to ENSO events.

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber

A solid warm tongue has built in the far east, but cool anomalies remain near the dateline.


I thought the following from the referenced paper was worth quoting in full, as it seems consistent with the above posted obs. The authors are here setting out to draw distinction between MM-ENSO events and the ENSO events which do not have MM events as precusors(ENSO-ONLY).

" In MM-ENSO...it appears that the warming begins in the eastern equatorial region and then extends westward. This is consistent with the results(in fig 14) which shows a substantial subsurface warming excited by the MM winds during the boreal spring and then propagating eastward, resulting in surface warming. In this case, the surface heat flux anomaly near the equator always tries to cool the surface, especially in the western Pacific during March-July, and in the eastern Pacific in September."

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#1465288 - 09/06/2018 09:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Posts: 2628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Locke
The temperature anomaly for Australia for the month of May according to the UAH dataset was -0.4C against the 1981-2010 average.


Not a word from the BoM about this - given itís a 3c turnaround from April and against the trend.

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#1465368 - 10/06/2018 17:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7365
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Locke
The temperature anomaly for Australia for the month of May according to the UAH dataset was -0.4C against the 1981-2010 average.


Not a word from the BoM about this - given itís a 3c turnaround from April and against the trend.


Good point.

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#1465373 - 10/06/2018 19:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2015
Loc: Westbury
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Locke
The temperature anomaly for Australia for the month of May according to the UAH dataset was -0.4C against the 1981-2010 average.


Not a word from the BoM about this - given itís a 3c turnaround from April and against the trend.


Despite the turnaround, believe it or not, the BOM still had the overall anomaly as +0.19. Max temps up +0.86 and Min temps down -0.49

All state had positive max temps anomalies, WA more than a degree up, while for min temps just Tasmania (+0.76) and Victoria (+0.46) were above average. The NT was down -1.16.

Rainfall was 69% down nationwide. Only Tasmania +6% was positive, mainly off the back of 1 downpour. This made it the 3rd driest May.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml

Keep pushing that agenda.

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#1465375 - 10/06/2018 19:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Says the guy actually pushing the agenda. And what the UAH arenít good enough anymore? Ha ha classic.

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#1465396 - 11/06/2018 08:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3306
Loc: Buderim
BOM temperature series shows that May was 0.19 degrees above the average, which for BOM is 1961-1990. It looks like it would be reasonably close to UAH if measured against the last 1981-2010 as Uah is.

It is the coldest May in all of 3 years. Since you are so unbiased and agenda free kino, i expect you will be commenting now everytime it is the warmest monthly temp in at least 3 years?





Edited by Mike Hauber (11/06/2018 08:31)

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#1465397 - 11/06/2018 09:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
BOM temperature series shows that May was 0.19 degrees above the average, which for BOM is 1961-1990. It looks like it would be reasonably close to UAH if measured against the last 1981-2010 as Uah is.

It is the coldest May in all of 3 years. Since you are so unbiased and agenda free kino, i expect you will be commenting now everytime it is the warmest monthly temp in at least 3 years?





Gotta watch those baselines. Thanks for the clarification Mike.

Incidentally, my original post was on the 2018 Snow Season thread in response to whether warmer weather might contribute to a bad ski season.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1465423 - 11/06/2018 19:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7365
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
"BOM temperature series shows that May was 0.19 degrees above the average, which for BOM is 1961-1990."

Thanks for that Mike.

What a shame I cant say that we had cooling, verus, say a dataset 1900 - 1940? (dont check it - I havent).

Is it just me? - or has skeptic-based, thus verifyable science now gone completely out the window .....and replaced by pseudo-religious/group-think mantra?

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#1465427 - 11/06/2018 20:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2628
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Petros, you can just pick and choose the dataset range now....🙄🙄🙄

Fancy picking 1961-1990 and then with such hubris say itís warmed 0.19c when their own religious leaders say itís actally cooled 0.4c.

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#1465432 - 11/06/2018 21:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1045
Loc: Warwick, QLD
I think we will find out very soon, within the next 3-5 years as solar cycle 24 wanes, what really drives the climate. The next 2-3 decades could be very interesting indeed.
What worries me is the manipulation of data, especially from NOAA and NASA, which has been proven, regarding warming. Very disappointing indeed as these are the people we are suppose to trust.
Anyway, I would take a warming planet over a cooling planet any day as major crop loss and famine ensues with a drop in temps worldwide as in past solar minimums. Thoughts anyone?
Thanks Kino and Mike for such a lively and informative discussion. This is what it is all about. A free exchange of ideas and discussion. Cheers.
Michael
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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