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#1465435 - 11/06/2018 22:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1842
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
NASA GMAO has dramatically warmed its forecast. We now have all four major models forecasting warm neutral or el nino. JMA is the most conservative and appears to be leaning more towards neutral than el nino.

A solid warm tongue has built in the far east, but cool anomalies remain near the dateline. Its the water near the dateline that has the strongest impact on our climate, so as long as this pattern continues there might not be much negative impact on our rainfall.



Forecasts suggest a sustained period of westerly anomalies starting in the next day or so. Combined with the recent warming, and CFS/NASA switching their forecasts to el nino it seems that odds of an el nino are becoming quite short now.

One thing that may slow all this down is the recent period of enhanced trades. Not overly strong, but with warm water piled in the east the subsurface is starting to become stacked in favour of cool Kelvin waves, and TAO data suggests a weak cool Kelvin wave was initiated.



And what did we have this time last year ??? from the same Models ? I think I have read nearly every one of your post's on this thread for at least the last twelve months Mike, if not more , not a one of them ever entertains any cooling whatsoever....Ever, apart from the odd disclaimer.
Warming this, Warming that, even in the face of neutral or cooling influences right there in front of you in real time.

I get that a whole lot of you people on this thread are into aspects of "Weather" that a lot of Lay people just don't understand or are just plain ignorant of, bygeezus, some of the abbreviations alone need a little bible themselves just to decipher them with.

But overall, doesn't it just come down to a simple equation of energy balance, As In V Out ? As a Climate driver!

This is after all is what actually Drives the Climate right... ( The Energy Balance)?

All other discussions,are just "Observations" really, and not actually getting to the core reason/s of what really Drives the Climate.

I might also ask what is "Climate" ?

There is ample evidence that just 12/13.000 Years ago there was a sudden and chaotic change in sea levels at the end of the last Ice Age. Some attribute this to a Comet impact in the north of the America's around that time impacting the Alaskan/Canadian Ice sheets and that we are still living as Humans in the after effects of this.

We are after all living on a Planet that has Ice Ages as a Norm, as opposed to the Climate that we currently enjoy as a Species.

Would most reading here see a Comet Impact 13,000 odd yrs ago as a Climate Driver or a "One Off" event that see's our existence now as a beneficial result of it, or just an event to be ignored overall in today's climate?

I'm asking with the Knowledge that the Earths norm is one of Ice Age as we know it and that the Holocene has been an age that has been overall quite kind to our Species.

In fact the Norm for Earth has been one that is quite scary to think of and I would advise all reading to go check it out. 1 km high or more Glaciers over modern day Washington U.S.

Think abut that, a KM high Ice sheet covering an area today that houses over 7,000,000 people, plus it's surrounds.

And it was so only 20,000 years ago, and is Earth's NORM!

Yet we debate .07-2 Deg C in the here and now ?

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#1465439 - 12/06/2018 06:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2289
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Anyone notice the trend in the sea surface height anomaly?

The higher SSH have been pushing further and further north along the equator. North of that there is now a massive lowering of the SSH down to -100mm and -200mm.

There is some that say this is indicative of deeper water temperatures., which means the warmer water is pushing north.

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#1465440 - 12/06/2018 06:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Petros, you can just pick and choose the dataset range now....🙄🙄🙄

Fancy picking 1961-1990 and then with such hubris say it’s warmed 0.19c when their own religious leaders say it’s actally cooled 0.4c.


It is a scientific fact that Australia in may 2018 was 0.19 degrees warmer than the average between 1961 to 1990 (using BOM surface station data). And also a scientific fact that May 2018 was -0.4 cooler than the average between 1981 to 2010 (Uah calculation of satellite data). I am interested in both facts and feel that together they give me a better understanding of where recent temps sit within the historical record.

You are free to try and pretend that one of these facts doesn't exist if you so chose. But please don't insult those of us with claims of 'hubris' and 'following religious leaders' who do chose to report on the fact you don't like.


Edited by Mike Hauber (12/06/2018 06:42)

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#1465442 - 12/06/2018 07:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
And just in case anyone is actually interested in the topic of this thread:

Westerly anomalies have returned to the Pacific, but are relatively weak. Forecasts at daily, weekly and monthly scales suggest these westerlies may continue indefinitely. Is this the moment that the atmosphere switches into a sustained el nino pattern?

Seems a bit odd to me that it would do so based on current levels of warmth along the equator. Was definitely warmer in 2014 and last year when the atmosphere failed to lock in. Perhaps the warm North Pacific Mode is to blame.


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#1465457 - 12/06/2018 10:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7136
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Re using 1961 to 1990 (using BOM surface station data), then 1981 to 2010 (Uah calculation of satellite data) to make an Australian temperature trend statement.

To me, picking discrete time periods, and also using different data sources for both, smacks of window dressing - dodgy science, desperation.

It's a shame that lay people, in increasing numbers in my opinion, are losing faith in scientific methodology employed by government-paid climatologists.

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#1465458 - 12/06/2018 10:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2320
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Petros
Re using 1961 to 1990 (using BOM surface station data), then 1981 to 2010 (Uah calculation of satellite data) to make an Australian temperature trend statement.

To me, picking discrete time periods, and also using different data sources for both, smacks of window dressing - dodgy science, desperation.

It's a shame that lay people, in increasing numbers in my opinion, are losing faith in scientific methodology employed by government-paid climatologists.


...and by combining the 2, May 2018 was still -0.21 below the 1961 - 2010 'average' however they dress it.

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#1465462 - 12/06/2018 11:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Petros
Re using 1961 to 1990 (using BOM surface station data), then 1981 to 2010 (Uah calculation of satellite data) to make an Australian temperature trend statement.


I would never combine the data to make a any statement on temperature (unlike some on this thread lol). I stated that both are equally valid scientific facts.

Quote:
To me, picking discrete time periods, and also using different data sources for both, smacks of window dressing - dodgy science, desperation.


Different people, using very different methods of measuring temperatures - satellite vs thermometers, get similar results (once the different baseline is taken into account). The small differences between these two different methods - once the baseline issue is considered - gives a reasonable estimate of the accuracy of whichever method is least accurate.

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#1465465 - 12/06/2018 11:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2320
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I would never combine the data to make a any statement on temperature (unlike some on this thread lol). I stated that both are equally valid scientific facts.


As is combining it. It just produces a result that the warmer's don't like.

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#1465470 - 12/06/2018 12:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5194
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Petros
Re using 1961 to 1990 (using BOM surface station data), then 1981 to 2010 (Uah calculation of satellite data) to make an Australian temperature trend statement.

To me, picking discrete time periods, and also using different data sources for both, smacks of window dressing - dodgy science, desperation.

It's a shame that lay people, in increasing numbers in my opinion, are losing faith in scientific methodology employed by government-paid climatologists.


...and by combining the 2, May 2018 was still -0.21 below the 1961 - 2010 'average' however they dress it.

Surely the fact that there needs to be such a fuss made when one month, by one measure, comes in at slightly below average, highlights just how quickly (and consistently) global temperatures are climbing. Sure it's scary, but it's happening and it won't stop because we find one month to make us feel better. Appreciate there are not meant to be comments on climate change on this forum, but there are enough of them above in the last couple of weeks to justify some response.

Latest CFS runs trending higher in SSTs:



Am intrigued to see this coming not so much off the MJO but on low pressure creating the westerly anomalies.

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#1465471 - 12/06/2018 12:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


As is combining it. It just produces a result that the warmer's don't like.


No it doesn't. I have no problem with one month being a few tenths of a degree cooler than the average over some other period. If you go back to the chart I first posted, while May 2018 comes in +ve, other recent months come in negative. I am confident that there will be months in the future that will come in negative again.



I have a problem with all the insults and accusations of bias/conspiracy etc you make on this thread, and would appreciate it if you would focus on facts etc without constantly resorting to such tactics.

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#1465472 - 12/06/2018 12:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: KevD


Am intrigued to see this coming not so much off the MJO but on low pressure creating the westerly anomalies.


Once ENSO establishes control of the atmosphere one way or the other MJO tends to fade away. Although as I said it seems SSTs aren't yet warm enough that I'd expect the atmosphere to switch properly into el nino mode.

MJO is moving into the el nino favourable phases, and even though it may have no strength at all now, I've noticed in the past that timing of trade wind anomalies can be significantly influenced by an MJO signal that is very weak.


Edited by Mike Hauber (12/06/2018 12:58)

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#1465474 - 12/06/2018 13:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2320
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I have a problem with all the insults and accusations of bias/conspiracy etc you make on this thread, and would appreciate it if you would focus on facts etc without constantly resorting to such tactics.


And I'd appreciate it if you cease the personal attacks. It's my opinion and I'm entitled to it; whether you agree or not is irrelevant. Perhaps you care to focus on trying to beat up the next El Nino?

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#1465475 - 12/06/2018 13:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2320
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: KevD
Surely the fact that there needs to be such a fuss made when one month, by one measure, comes in at slightly below average, highlights just how quickly (and consistently) global temperatures are climbing. Sure it's scary, but it's happening and it won't stop because we find one month to make us feel better. Appreciate there are not meant to be comments on climate change on this forum, but there are enough of them above in the last couple of weeks to justify some response.


Well, without someone making a "fuss" these are usually "homogenised" out of existence.

But the fact remains - Australia cooled significantly between April to May, despite the state of ENSO or global shifts. And the apparent reason is being ignored because it's inconvenient. And I, for one, would like to know why, hence raising the issue, before it again was hijacked.

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#1465477 - 12/06/2018 14:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino

But the fact remains - Australia cooled significantly between April to May, despite the state of ENSO or global shifts. And the apparent reason is being ignored because it's inconvenient. And I, for one, would like to know why, hence raising the issue, before it again was hijacked.


Are you claiming that you are just asking questions and trying to gain understanding? Doesn't seem believeable to me in light of some of your other statements:

Originally Posted By: Kino
Fancy picking 1961-1990 and then with such hubris say it’s warmed 0.19c when their own religious leaders say it’s actally cooled 0.4c.


The reason for the cooling is probably increased southerly wind, or changes in cloudiness, similar to what has happened multiple times in recent history. Was the cooling that happened in 2015, or in 2011 inconvenient for the 'religious leaders' in their 'hubris'.

How so??


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#1465494 - 12/06/2018 19:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 993
Loc: Warwick, QLD
The globe also cooled by 0.68 C between February 2016 and February 2018. Some say it was an anomaly, others say it is the start of the Grand Solar Minimum. Time will certainly tell.....
Greenland also recently gained much more ice and snowpack than expected.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1465587 - 14/06/2018 09:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3159
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
The globe also cooled by 0.68 C between February 2016 and February 2018. Some say it was an anomaly, others say it is the start of the Grand Solar Minimum. Time will certainly tell.....
Greenland also recently gained much more ice and snowpack than expected.


I remember the similar size cooling that occurred between 2007 and 2008. Several members of this forum were confidently predicting that due to a combination of reduced solar activity and switching PDO/AMO that it would cool further. The last 10 years have proven them wrong.

Greenland gaining ice and snowpack - doesn't necessarily mean cooling. Greenland has a long freezing season with temps for much of this season a long way below freezing, short marginal seasons with temps near freezing, and short melting season. Warmer temps in the melting season mean more melting - ice loss. Warmer temps in marginal season means melt instead of snow - ice loss. Warmer temps in the core freezing means no melt, but warmer SSTs = more precipitation = ice gain.

Sustained cooler temps over more than one year would probably equate to ice gain.

Recent melt data on Greenland shows a brief period of very high melt. This being melt data it does not include winter gains due to snowfall.


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#1465599 - 14/06/2018 11:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2289
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Looking at the current forecast wind anomaly maps. It dawned on me the maps do not indicate wind direction but rather whether the winds will be stronger or weaker then the long term average.

So if the normal wind direction is 6m/s from South America to Asia direction, and there is an anomaly forecast of -3m/s, that means the winds will still blow from South America to Asia, just only at 3m/s speed.

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#1465641 - 14/06/2018 23:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 993
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Mike, that 2007-2008 period was during the last 11 year cycle. It was always expected to warm some after that and heading into this cycle, cycle 24. The thing is that with each solar cycle, the maximums are getting weaker. By 2040, some say they will be very weak, giving the opportunity for the next glaciation period. That of course is a long, long way off.

Regarding Greenland, 2017, according to some, showed record ice gain.

https://realclimatescience.com/wp-conten....27-AM-down.gif

Even NASA stated a lesser degree of ice gain last year.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/un...crease-ice-mass

I am not sure how this compares to this year. Has the process now reversed and we are losing ice again in Greenland? I know when the Vickings settled there it was rather green and quite habitable. Maybe this is where Greenland got it's name in the first place?
I know the arctic is at the multi decadal average for ice and Antarctica is above average to spite the fraudulent article today in the Washington Post.

Nice corresponding with you Mike.
Cheers,
Michael .
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1465644 - 15/06/2018 01:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1842
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Yes Mike, that 2007-2008 period was during the last 11 year cycle. It was always expected to warm some after that and heading into this cycle, cycle 24. The thing is that with each solar cycle, the maximums are getting weaker. By 2040, some say they will be very weak, giving the opportunity for the next glaciation period. That of course is a long, long way off.

Regarding Greenland, 2017, according to some, showed record ice gain.

https://realclimatescience.com/wp-conten....27-AM-down.gif

Even NASA stated a lesser degree of ice gain last year.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/un...crease-ice-mass

I am not sure how this compares to this year. Has the process now reversed and we are losing ice again in Greenland? I know when the Vickings settled there it was rather green and quite habitable. Maybe this is where Greenland got it's name in the first place?
I know the arctic is at the multi decadal average for ice and Antarctica is above average to spite the fraudulent article today in the Washington Post.

Nice corresponding with you Mike.
Cheers,
Michael .


Erik the Red in command of 14 longship's settled Greenland way back in 985 or there abouts.
And apparently way back then in Greenland it was warm enough to grow Barley, Corn and raise livestock well enough to sustain and grow a population without the genetics and technology available today.

Quote:
Those tough seafaring warriors came to one of the world’s most formidable environments and made it their home. And they didn’t just get by: They built manor houses and hundreds of farms; they imported stained glass; they raised sheep, goats and cattle; they traded furs, walrus-tusk ivory, live polar bears and other exotic arctic goods with Europe. “These guys were really out on the frontier,” says Andrew Dugmore, a geographer at the University of Edinburgh. “They’re not just there for a few years. They’re there for generations—for centuries.”

So what happened to them?


https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/why-greenland-vikings-vanished-180962119/

The above article speculates that it was a collapse of the Walrus Ivory Market along with the Competition of Elephant Ivory from Africa that led to the decline in Greenland after 500 years of
settlement which led to its decline. But it just coincides with the Maunder Minimum right ?
http://sciencenordic.com/vikings-grew-barley-greenland


Edited by marakai (15/06/2018 01:40)

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#1465647 - 15/06/2018 07:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4617
Loc: Wynnum
Wrong thread...


Edited by retired weather man (15/06/2018 07:45)
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