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#1466894 - 04/07/2018 20:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1990
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Petros

Time to simply measure the sea level in Port Phillip Bay, and read/compare our own daily temperature readings in my humble uneducated opinion!


The problem with that is that it limits science to outcome trends and that alone does not help with understanding drivers.

Science's understanding of natural systems without models, combined with attempting to model that understanding, and then combined with further measurements to verify or disprove the models, ultimately builds better knowledge for the scientific understanding of drivers. So I say modelling is an intricate part of more complete science. But of course it does not mean that the models are right or wrong, they just need to be viewed cautiously but not discredited simply because it is a model.


I would totally agree with all that you have said here.

However in this field, there seems to be a a small cadre of Scientist's who control the reins in this area and subsequentially a small number of people who are guiding Global Gov't/Public policy and spending to mitigate an apparent problem that is only to be found in scientific models both created and controlled by said small cadre of people (empirical evidence is non existent or very scarce), who quite often are well known activist's or at the very least quite sympathetic to their chosen field of study.

Models do have their place, but it should be recognized that that is all they are "Models". Models do not compensate for Empirical Evidence and they should not be used to dictate the spending of Billions of dollars of taxpayers money when they have been shown time and again to be wrong or need to be adjusted/tweaked time and again to reflect reality.

Just here in Australia alone we have mothballed Desal plant's that have cost billions to build and Billions to maintain that have never been used, there are a host of more immediate ecological problems which continue to be ignored while Taxpayers dollars have been funneled off on the wild Goose Chase of a magic climate button which for all intents and purpose only exists in Models.

Sure they have their place, but they are not by any stretch of the imagination a legitimate cause for spending the hard earned taxes of citizens on unproven predictions, predictions that have been falsified time and again in the past.

An interesting parallel. https://www.weeklystandard.com/daniel-sarewitz/all-ye-need-to-know


Edited by marakai (04/07/2018 20:20)

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#1466903 - 05/07/2018 06:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3448
Loc: Buderim
What separates science from someone with an agenda?

Science looks for the best tools to do the job. No tool is perfect. Someone with an agenda finds the lack of perfection in the tool to complain about the implications of the science, without offering a better tool.

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#1466907 - 05/07/2018 07:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 568
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
What separates science from someone with an agenda?

Science looks for the best tools to do the job. No tool is perfect. Someone with an agenda finds the lack of perfection in the tool to complain about the implications of the science, without offering a better tool.

Good comment Mike.

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#1466908 - 05/07/2018 08:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: marakai]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 568
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: marakai
Models do not compensate for Empirical Evidence and they should not be used to dictate the spending of Billions of dollars of taxpayers money when they have been shown time and again to be wrong or need to be adjusted/tweaked time and again to reflect reality.

Just here in Australia alone we have mothballed Desal plant's that have cost billions to build and Billions to maintain that have never been used, there are a host of more immediate ecological problems which continue to be ignored while Taxpayers dollars have been funneled off on the wild Goose Chase of a magic climate button which for all intents and purpose only exists in Models.

Sure they have their place, but they are not by any stretch of the imagination a legitimate cause for spending the hard earned taxes of citizens on unproven predictions, predictions that have been falsified time and again in the past.

Geez Marakai,
There is a lot of intensity in that. But to be fair:
(1) if people, whether in a professional role or not, falsify models that is unethical and they eventually get caught out.
(2) almost all significant public expenditure is based on modelling of some sort including roads, education, water, electricity, health, AND ecological restoration / enhancement projects. I suggest that use of models should not be criticised, but rather criticism should be directed to situations where modelling is not adequately reviewed or post investment review analysis not done.
(3) the need for desal plants was from real data and experience on the last millennium drought not modelled climate projections
(4) the desal plants are not mothballed and not true they have never been used. The Qld Gold Coast desal was used in the 2013 floods due to excessively dirty water in Lockyer creek flows and a number of times since to allow maintenance on other conventional plants. Without such maintenance water supplies will eventually fail. Desal, while expensive gives us resilience that nothing else can assure. Future extended droughts will come, and that resilience will prove valuable.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1466909 - 05/07/2018 08:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5205
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: marakai


However in this field, there seems to be a a small cadre of Scientist's who control the reins in this area and subsequentially a small number of people who are guiding Global Gov't/Public policy and spending to mitigate an apparent problem that is only to be found in scientific models


A conclusion of an apparent problem that is only found in models appears to be contrary to some latest articles appearing in newspapers around the world. Amazing to read above the opening paragraph (This article, originally published Tuesday, was updated Wednesday to add all-time heat records at Mount Washington, N.H., and Tbilisi, Georgia set since Monday.):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capi...m=.1056a56dd292

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#1466913 - 05/07/2018 10:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5331
Loc: Not tellin!
But of course if you look around, you can always find an article with a cold record http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/chilly-in-oregon/

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#1466917 - 05/07/2018 10:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: adon]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: Peachester
Isn't it more revealing to compare the number of warm records to cold?

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#1466918 - 05/07/2018 11:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Can we get back to discussing the various climate cycles so that this thread doesn't end up being closed down. Were straying into dangerous territory regardless how civil the current discussion is.

I really don't want to lose the opportunity to be able to talk about ENSO, IOD, SAM, PDO, SOI etc given the knowledge and experience available in these forums.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1466964 - 05/07/2018 23:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Probably not ENSO related but thought it was cool to see the strength of the monsoon flow through Asia for the next 7 days or so...really puts ours to shame of late if you think about it:



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#1466968 - 06/07/2018 03:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
Probably not ENSO related but thought it was cool to see the strength of the monsoon flow through Asia for the next 7 days or so...really puts ours to shame of late if you think about it:


That was actually a very silly comment I made considering the record rainfall which fell across northern WA and NT last wet season. Not so much for NQ though.

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#1466973 - 06/07/2018 07:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3448
Loc: Buderim
As far as I can tell the monsoon trough is at about 30N, which is as far north as Northern NSW is south. In mid June the trough was about 20N. That would be equivalent to reaching Townsville in mid December. Much larger land mass in NH makes for much stronger monsoon.

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#1466976 - 06/07/2018 08:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4833
Loc: Wynnum
Agree Mike.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1466977 - 06/07/2018 08:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 494
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
On the note of the monsoon, it is running about 15 days early across India. Combined with low soil moistures of Australia and the heat it will allow in spring, I wouldn't be surprised if we have a strong somewhat early monsoon regardless if it is a weak El nino or warm neutral.

A deep monsoon trough was what ended the 1982-83 drought as well, which is a drought which compares in severity to this one.

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#1466986 - 06/07/2018 11:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thanks for the comments guys. Always find the monsoon quite fascinating to watch.

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#1467154 - 10/07/2018 10:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5205
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Well this will be interesting...MJO forecast to strengthen in the Pacific:



And you can see the (forecast) results of that starting to appear in the 850 winds:



Looks like this could firm up a potential El Nino this year. Not what we (or likely the planet) needs. Short term we've got a very decent trade wind burst heading through, but once that clears out the way the westerly anoms really appear to dominate right across the region.

Some good news to our south - Antarctic ice appears to be returning to something like normal levels:


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#1467155 - 10/07/2018 10:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3448
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: KevD
Well this will be interesting...MJO forecast to strengthen in the Pacific:



And also through the Australian area, in contrast to last summer where the MJO was tending to skip this region. Probably not much help this time of year, but it is a likely contributor to the short term forecast boost in trades.

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#1467157 - 10/07/2018 14:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Speaking for Vic, I reckon we have been El Nino for 6 months, despite the traditional indicators showing neutral. Perhaps the current indicators are only catching up with what has been/currently is?

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#1467160 - 10/07/2018 16:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
I would agree the past 6 months have been typical of the early stages of a developing El Nino event.

The eastern part of the continent has seen below average rainfall across a wide area.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1467163 - 10/07/2018 16:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4833
Loc: Wynnum
Agree with Petros and Locke.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1467178 - 10/07/2018 22:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1837
Loc: Kingaroy
The Federation Drought ended with a La Nina in the early 1900s, perhaps the early 2020s could be similar.

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