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#1467262 - 12/07/2018 23:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2269
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Posted previously:

[quote]2017 50/50 warm neutral or el nino - actually borderline cool neutral/la Nina - wrong. Declared a La Niña, models went for moderate El Niño.
2016 Models forecast cool neutral or weak La Nina while some on this forum speculated that massive el nino should be followed by strong La Nina. Result cool Neutral correct - weak La Nina
2015 Models forecast weak to moderate el nino, while some speculated that the 14/15 warm event should be followed by cool. Result near record el nino. This forecast was actcually worse than the often criticised 2014 forecast, as the model average stayed in weak el nino territory until well after the predictability period. wrong - warm neutral forecast - very strong El Niño result.
2014 models forecast weak el nino. Result borderline warm neutral/weak el nino. Previously criticised as a model failure, but the highest multi-model average forecast was 1.2, and speculation of an extreme el nino was not driven by model forecast, but by the size of the kelvin wave. end result was wrong, no matter how much we re-write history
2013 models forecast near neutral. Result near neutral correct
2012 models forecast warm/neutral/weak el nino. Result warm neutral in Spring, but collapsed late in the year. wrong. End result was neutral


So 4 incorrect forecasts, 2 correct out of the last 6 forecasts. An accuracy of 33%. Outstanding. Not.


Edited by Kino (12/07/2018 23:25)

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#1467265 - 13/07/2018 00:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1744
I'm pretty sure MOST models were forecasting a moderate to strong El Nino in early 2014 which resulted nothing even close but if we want to go back to the last decade they were pretty good with the double Strong La Nina of 2010 close to the mark in 2011 and they predicted the weak El Nino of 2009.


Edited by _Johnno_ (13/07/2018 00:07)
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#1467266 - 13/07/2018 00:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Posts: 1744
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/archive/models/201405-ms.shtml

Most of those models were in the moderate range and you can argue JMA was on the brink of strong prediction this is the MAY forecast in 2014 for October so its not like it was February or March or something when this forecast was made almost WINTER! ONLY POAMA and UK were on the weak side and METEO was borderline.
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#1467267 - 13/07/2018 00:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
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The big 4 were all going for a decent El Nino... ECMWF, JMA, NOAA and NASA.
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#1467270 - 13/07/2018 07:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3124
Loc: Buderim
For 2014, the warmest forecast was for 1.2 by NCEP (mid April) and forecasts from other months were cooler. The nino 3.4 reached 0.9. The only ones trying to rewrite history are those claiming the models predicted a strong el nino that didnt happen.

2015 was definitely the next worst performing model forecast after 2017. Mid March the models were going for moderate at best. In mid April CFS had picked up on an extreme el nino with a forecast of peak at 2.2, and in Mid May all the four leading models were predicting something well over 2.

2012, yes the end result was neutral. Models forecast warm neutral or weak el nino. Therefore the 2012 forecast was correct.

Overall one clearly wrong model forecast, and another year with an extreme el nino that the models failed to pick up on early, but were predicting accurately before the uncertainty period had ended.

Can anyone provide a method of ENSO forecasting with a better track record than that?

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#1467382 - 15/07/2018 12:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
But what if ENSO isnt the be all end all indicator of Australian rainfall?

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#1467385 - 15/07/2018 13:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2269
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Petros
But what if ENSO isnt the be all end all indicator of Australian rainfall?


It’s clearly not - IOD, SAM and perhaps another driver undiscovered?

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#1467386 - 15/07/2018 14:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7018
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Petros
But what if ENSO isnt the be all end all indicator of Australian rainfall?


Yeah I agree. Like last summer and the summer before that saw the real big, big rains over the western half of the country rather than the far east. Whatever factor(s) that determine where that Pacifical moisture of La-Nina filters down is the big unknown imo.

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#1467396 - 15/07/2018 18:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 453
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Agree with the last two comments that there is lot more to rainfall indicator than ENSO. I think there is sometimes too much focus on ENSO. Also the best indicator needs to consider what rainfall period outcome is of interest. I think ENSO is more of interest for seasonal rainfall totals. For one off events, such as flood producing rains in say 2 to 5 day periods the SOI correlation is quite weak. Some analysis I did a few years for big SEQ rain events up to 5 days duration showed stronger correlation with previous 3-5 months rainfall amounts as indicator was notably stronger than correlation to SOI.

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#1467408 - 15/07/2018 21:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1841
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
For 2014, the warmest forecast was for 1.2 by NCEP (mid April) and forecasts from other months were cooler. The nino 3.4 reached 0.9. The only ones trying to rewrite history are those claiming the models predicted a strong el nino that didnt happen.

2015 was definitely the next worst performing model forecast after 2017. Mid March the models were going for moderate at best. In mid April CFS had picked up on an extreme el nino with a forecast of peak at 2.2, and in Mid May all the four leading models were predicting something well over 2.

2012, yes the end result was neutral. Models forecast warm neutral or weak el nino. Therefore the 2012 forecast was correct.

Overall one clearly wrong model forecast, and another year with an extreme el nino that the models failed to pick up on early, but were predicting accurately before the uncertainty period had ended.

Can anyone provide a method of ENSO forecasting with a better track record than that?


I do doubt that there are any better "Models" out there Mike.

But one does need to realize that "Models" are reliant upon the input that they are programed with, IE: when used for forecasting, they (Models) are as only as good (or as ABLE) as the information used to base their assumptions on.

If a Models input is only using consensus based information, ergo, only consensus based information is going to come out the other end of any simulation run on said model.

Once again, it comes down to the Scientific Principal or rather in this day and age, the lack of Principal's we often find in the Post Modern era of current Science.

Basing published findings upon Models that can't be reproduced. Can't be in anyway Falsified, and time and again are found to be predicatively WRONG is not SCIENCE.

Time and again we see all sort's of headlines with a claim of this or that regarding Weather or Catastrophic Climate events predicted by said reputable sources based upon "Models" which never eventuate, and which are never questioned either at the time of publishing nor afterwards after they haven't happened.

Sure, most of it is media driven but the only mea-culpa you ever see about any of these things is buried in a small article ten pages back months afterwards and the lasting impression for the lay man is alway's one of imminent climatic disaster or long term cataclysm.

Whatever happened to Robert K Merton's concepts ?

Quote:
The ethos of science is that affectively toned complex of values and norms which is held to be binding on the man of science. The norms are expressed in the form of prescriptions, proscriptions, preferences, and permissions. They are legitimatized in terms of institutional values. These imperatives, transmitted by precept and example and reinforced by sanctions are in varying degrees internalized by the scientist, thus fashioning his scientific conscience or, if one prefers the latter-day phrase, his superego. Although the ethos of science has not been codified, it can be inferred from the moral consensus of scientists as expressed in use and wont, in countless writings on the scientific spirit and in moral indignation directed toward contraventions of the ethos. [2]
http://scienceblogs.com/ethicsandscience/2008/01/29/basic-concepts-the-norms-of-sc/

Models are well and good, but....

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#1467421 - 16/07/2018 09:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 170
Originally Posted By: Flowin
I think there is sometimes too much focus on ENSO.


maybe so....but enso is such a concentrated little package...perhaps it contains the secrets of connections to many more variables/ patterns on our globe..if it can be unlocked...

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#1467424 - 16/07/2018 10:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Flowin
I think there is sometimes too much focus on ENSO.


maybe so....but enso is such a concentrated little package...perhaps it contains the secrets of connections to many more variables/ patterns on our globe..if it can be unlocked...


....agree, and therein contains the value of this thread. smile

For example the present state of longer term ocean currents/gyres
is rarely mentioned here (by the way I now very little about them) - as is the present state of the solar cycle.

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#1467430 - 16/07/2018 13:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 365
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
One aspect of climate drivers I am very interested in the effect of the ozone hole upon our weather outcomes. It was sparked as I am currently studying it in high school chemistry. Upon some reading I found that it has caused significant shifts to our weather systems as it drags many weather systems south, hence greater precipiation events in the austral summer but polar activity during summertime. I'm interested in what changes will occur further as the ozone hole gradually improves.
Scientific american article
Columbia university, ozone hole link to weather system shifts.


Edited by ashestoashes (16/07/2018 13:21)

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#1467442 - 16/07/2018 19:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Good work Ashes - keep your interests going with your own research, and remain skeptical the mantra the education system imposes on you! As you are finding, the answer is out there if you look!

Good luck - would love to see you develop into another Aussie scientist!

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#1467458 - 17/07/2018 07:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3124
Loc: Buderim
A bit of a period of enhanced trades has developed. Forecast suggest another significant WWB is starting about now, so wait and see how far it develops. A significant WWB now would mean the recent enhanced trade winds would achieve little, but if it fails it gets more interesting.


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#1467475 - 17/07/2018 13:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2269
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
A bit of a period of enhanced trades has developed. Forecast suggest another significant WWB is starting about now, so wait and see how far it develops. A significant WWB now would mean the recent enhanced trade winds would achieve little, but if it fails it gets more interesting.



When one compares the above to one 7 days ago it's stark contrast. Interesting and more ammunition for the models debate.


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#1467476 - 17/07/2018 13:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
That chart might not be for the date you intended Kino?

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#1467477 - 17/07/2018 13:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2269
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Petros
That chart might not be for the date you intended Kino?


Says 11 July 2018?


Edited by Kino (17/07/2018 13:38)

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#1467478 - 17/07/2018 14:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Fireduck Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/01/2013
Posts: 23
Loc: Lake Munmorah
I believe he is referring to the left hand side saying 1997

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#1467481 - 17/07/2018 14:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Fireduck]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2269
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Fireduck
I believe he is referring to the left hand side saying 1997


Ahhhhhhhh lol my bad. It’s actually cropped out on my device. 🙄🙄🙄😂😂

Wondered why it was massively diverse.


Edited by Kino (17/07/2018 14:38)

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