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#1468150 - 02/08/2018 16:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Locke
Were only just entering solar minimum with likely 2 years to go until the full impact hits. A 2020 La Nina after 2-3 years of solar minimum could prove interesting to observe (a recent scientific paper predicted a linkage between La Nina events and solar minimum and predicted a 2020 La Nina on this basis).

I also recall a paper a number of years ago that proposed there is a 0.2C amplitude in global temps between max and min albeit this was most likely based on bigger solar cycles in the latter half of the twentieth century. Still it does indicate any global temp variations are going to be very small at least in the near term.

I would question whether perhaps long term meaningful variations in global temp associated with solar cycles occur on the back of multiple strong or weak cycles. Maybe we'll get a truer indication of this if solar cycle 25 ends up being as weak as 24.


Getting to be long range and global in scope. I think to avoid the ban on climate change discussions, and to be relevant to the topic of this thread any discussion of solar influence should be about what might happen in Australia in the shorter term. A prediction of a La Nina in 2020 is a bit more interesting and potentially relevant, although I've seen attempts to predict ENSO more than a year in advance before that haven't come to anything. I did see an interesting paper somewhere a while back suggesting that there was a theoretical reason to hope that ENSO may eventually be predicted multiple years in advance.


That maybe 2020 La Nina may come about, as by then the solar cycle that is almost at the bottom now should be starting to turn upwards by 2020 and I have seen in the past when that happens there seems to be a predominance of La Nina events.

One only has to go back to late 2009 to see that with the results over the next few years right up to the peak, before the drop off to the current minimum with associated mostly El Ninos. In NQ the wetter period started the previous year.

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#1468155 - 02/08/2018 17:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
I'm feeling like the models are overcooking things at the moment. A case in point is the IOD with the current index at -0.4 degrees as of the 29th of July. Climate model summary It doesn't really feel very likely for there to be a flip a negative IOD like there is being predicted.
Also i'm quite interested in how the increased comsic rays associated with the solar minimum effect us come monsoon season, because as off right now we are quite the moisture starved continent especially in the east. These grand solar minimums are I feel a new ball game because of our unique position.

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#1468158 - 02/08/2018 17:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: pete28]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: pete28
Only one sunspot recorded in the last 33 days...

Sunspots reflect conditions on the solar surface smile .

A rough calculation of the temperature of the Sunís core Ė rough [theoretical] because it cannot be measured Ė could be anywhere from 10^8 to 10^9 Kelvin. At temperatures required for thermo-nuclear fusion, atoms become ionised, forming plasma. For plasma to form through such fusion processes, it needs to somehow be contained to mitigate against external solar interference. Two possible means of this are through magnetism, where the internal electrically-charged solar currents generate a magnetic field, and through inertia, where centripetal and centrifugal movement are balanced. This would likely involve Einsteinís famous equation E = m*c^2 [for emissions], and some gravitational energy equation [for gravity]. The surface temperature for the Sun also defies the black-body radiation curve, because temperatures in the Chromosphere are several orders of magnitude higher.

This would partially be why the surface temperature of the Sun is so intriguing.
Sun Fact Sheet

I think it is a reasonable idea to stick with shorter-term prognostics and the related climate drivers/reactors for this discussion smile .


Edited by Seira (02/08/2018 17:52)
Edit Reason: Final edit.

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#1468163 - 02/08/2018 18:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Am I allowed to say Hadley cell expansion? Or is that naughty?

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#1468167 - 02/08/2018 19:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
winter isnt over....
Will be watching the snow depth and duration of seasons
Watching number of severe frosts.

The change will be gradual.

There is a seasonal heat lag as we all know; the movement into diminishing solar cycles would be no different I expect.

We are probably sitting around New years day if using seasonal heat lag as an analogy, perhaps a a few days later.


So at some unspecified date in the future there might be at least one way of measuring the weather that will suggest it is cold, and then you can say 'the solar minimum did it'.

Anything actually testable about where, when etc we can expect any cold?


Yeah they are called thermometers, amazing invention. They can even measure the warm and the cold with satellites, can you believe it! And if those special inventions measure it getting colder over the next few decades in correlation with the expected grand solar minimum I will say the solar minimum did it yes.

If it stays nice and warm...that will be great. I like warm. We can all analyse why it did what it did with our cheddar cheese knowledge, and we will be a bit smarter (or dead for some of us) Then our comprehension, theories and knowledge will evolve some more and we will be a tad smarter, and 20 years after that we will be a bit smarter again, and we will likely still have no idea.

I'm not fixated on a position like some. Really nobody has a damn clue, so no use making it a competition. It just "is" and that "is" changes constantly.


As for when we can expect any cold.... around 13th of August (or today if you are in WA)

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#1468170 - 02/08/2018 20:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: liberator]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: liberator
So we know there is an Elnino watch, so not yet really in play - or is it? If it's not then what is causing the current and significant drought in NSW, parts of QLD and Victoria?

What other factor is in play with our weather and the lack of rainfail (deliberate - not a typo)?

I'm not up with this as much as some of you guys. What is impacting us with this lack of rainfall that's so significant right now? Is it one of these? Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM or the etc that we haven't discussed or even know about yet?


All of the above and a heap of stuff that isnt discussed because it cant be, or more importantly it isnt in peoples frame of reference.

We cant even have a discussion about the sun as a driver in this thread without getting hot under the collar and offended. No chance of getting to the real juicy stuff.

Way too much coolaid and blue pills consumed in this cube.

Will just have to stick with the model driven pontifications it seems.

RWM comments re observations of increased La ninas moving off the base of solar min seems quite relevant though for where we need to be in this thread.

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#1468174 - 02/08/2018 20:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Am I allowed to say Hadley cell expansion? Or is that naughty?


Apparently thatís been a big factor in the heat across much of the NH this summer. It also explains our winter quite well as I have eluded to in another thread about the peculiarly large highs dominating the country this winter.

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#1468178 - 02/08/2018 21:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
winter isnt over....
Will be watching the snow depth and duration of seasons
Watching number of severe frosts.

The change will be gradual.

There is a seasonal heat lag as we all know; the movement into diminishing solar cycles would be no different I expect.

We are probably sitting around New years day if using seasonal heat lag as an analogy, perhaps a a few days later.


So at some unspecified date in the future there might be at least one way of measuring the weather that will suggest it is cold, and then you can say 'the solar minimum did it'.

Anything actually testable about where, when etc we can expect any cold?


Yeah they are called thermometers, amazing invention. They can even measure the warm and the cold with satellites, can you believe it! And if those special inventions measure it getting colder over the next few decades in correlation with the expected grand solar minimum I will say the solar minimum did it yes.

If it stays nice and warm...that will be great. I like warm. We can all analyse why it did what it did with our cheddar cheese knowledge, and we will be a bit smarter (or dead for some of us) Then our comprehension, theories and knowledge will evolve some more and we will be a tad smarter, and 20 years after that we will be a bit smarter again, and we will likely still have no idea.

I'm not fixated on a position like some. Really nobody has a damn clue, so no use making it a competition. It just "is" and that "is" changes constantly.


As for when we can expect any cold.... around 13th of August (or today if you are in WA)


Damn G O L D 🏅🏅🏅

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#1468182 - 02/08/2018 22:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I still think as discussed in a round about way some months ago, the word "drivers" is probably misplaced for the title of this thread. If people are not comfortable discussing solar energy, and want to focus more on ENSO, IOD, SAM (AAO), SSTs, WWBs, MJO..... Where is there any real evidence these are truly driving? These are all just "signatures" we look to draw inferences as to what we might expect based on past this happened with that.
Rain in NiŮa years drought in Nino, but we also see that does not hold true, and sometimes quite often.
Correlations yes, but correlation is not causation.
I would like to see a change in thread title to say "climate indicators discussion ENSO..IOD etc" because they are only indicators and nothing more.

And then if moderators and WZ forum community agree maybe another thread where solar energy and courteous discussion on theory of climate driver could be had without the biased agenda brought on by some re pro/against warming. Learn from the past and avoid the behaviour that led to previous ban.

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#1468186 - 02/08/2018 22:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 149
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Am I allowed to say Hadley cell expansion? Or is that naughty?


Apparently thatís been a big factor in the heat across much of the NH this summer. It also explains our winter quite well as I have eluded to in another thread about the peculiarly large highs dominating the country this winter.

Highs dominating this country for about 3 years, if feels like. We have had bugger all cloud, so warm sunny days and chilly nights. I actually wish there was more boffin discussion about the seemingly immovable highs in central Australia in recent years.

The european summer has been pretty brutal by their standards. Even Canada was getting in on the hot and dry action. England looks like Australia now, no grass and dusty fields!

On that hadley cell expansion

"The hypothesis, that a decline in solar activity reduces the latitudinal extent of the Hadley Circulation and decreases mid-latitudinal monsoon intensity, is matched by data, showing increased dryness in central west Africa and increase in precipitation in temperate zones north. Meanwhile, mid-latitudinal storm tracks in the temperate zones increased and moved equatorward."

Very interesting thread the last few pages. Back over to you folks who know more stuff than me!

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#1468194 - 02/08/2018 23:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seina]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: pete28
Only one sunspot recorded in the last 33 days...

Sunspots reflect conditions on the solar surface smile .

A rough calculation of the temperature of the Sunís core Ė rough [theoretical] because it cannot be measured Ė could be anywhere from 10^8 to 10^9 Kelvin. At temperatures required for thermo-nuclear fusion, atoms become ionised, forming plasma. For plasma to form through such fusion processes, it needs to somehow be contained to mitigate against external solar interference. Two possible means of this are through magnetism, where the internal electrically-charged solar currents generate a magnetic field, and through inertia, where centripetal and centrifugal movement are balanced. This would likely involve Einsteinís famous equation E = m*c^2 [for emissions], and some gravitational energy equation [for gravity]. The surface temperature for the Sun also defies the black-body radiation curve, because temperatures in the Chromosphere are several orders of magnitude higher.

This would partially be why the surface temperature of the Sun is so intriguing.
Sun Fact Sheet

I think it is a reasonable idea to stick with shorter-term prognostics and the related climate drivers/reactors for this discussion smile .


Sorry but there is a whole lot of Blah de Blah there concerning "Sun Spot's which have nothing to do with the Earth itself. Much of what you have posted has absolutely Zero to do with any Sun Earth interaction at all and is restricted just to the Sun itself.

A Sunspot may or may not interact with Earths Magnetic sphere, which is a wave of magnetic energy that surrounds the Earth and is generated from the Earths magnetic North and South poles originating from the Earths Core.

The Sun often generates a wave of magnetic energy that shields the Earth from Cosmic Radiation that originates deep in space far from the Earth. The Sun has an accepted 11 year cycle that fluxes and quite often throws charged particles from it's surface which reflect these cosmic particles from the Earths Surface on a regular basis.

During our Suns consensus accepted minima, we observe a reduction of the Suns shielding of our planet via a reduction in our Suns protective magnetic output and thus an intrusive input from cosmic radiation as a result.

Theory's from Svensmark and Marsh which are observable for me hold a lot more water than some Random Hokey stick Models that spliced proxie models with recent observations and passed them off as Science.

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#1468197 - 03/08/2018 06:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Seems like this has become the thinly veiled climate change denial thread. Go look up Skepticalscience.com

Do we need a new thread to discuss stuff like ENSO/IOD/PDO etc?

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#1468198 - 03/08/2018 06:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
I enjoy seeing a few feathers get ruffled. I think they need ruffling when people get comfortable talking about their theories as if they are as robust as others despite very little observable evidence.. Anyone paid much attention to some of the front page stories of WZ lately? Certainly seems to be some significant heat events worldwide. Before someone pipes up about biased media, remember we heard all about the good little cold snaps in the States and Europe towards the end of the NH winter.

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#1468201 - 03/08/2018 07:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Why do people find it so difficult to follow the rules? It's been clearly stated time and time again that climate change is not to be discussed. If you want to discuss the impacts of solar output (a fascinating topic regardless) or other possible drivers, even ones as ridiculous as astrology, you can do that without making connections to or inferences on climate change (for or against).

Climate change sceptics seem to get free reign to make their insinuations constantly. Those agreeing with the scientific consensus on climate change are not the ones who raise the topic or they get shut down very quickly. Every time we start having good discussions on here it gets derailed by infantile dramas between posters or these climate change discussions.

The number of people who have left this topic is high and very disappointing because you guys can't follow the rules. You just can't help yourself. Do you really think that the more you prod at your agenda, the more it will be true or that you will somehow convince people? Whether you agree or disagree with AGW, it's clear that people's perspectives on this topic at WZ will not be changed anyway. So all you're doing is just stirring. Please stop.


Edited by Nature's Fury (03/08/2018 07:46)

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#1468206 - 03/08/2018 08:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Sillybanter Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 58
Loc: Toowoomba
This forum sure is a laugh. I am way of the pace and can't follow the politics of it.
But I would like to say that I believe the word "sceptic" is a derogatory and inflammatory term in this discussion. Nearly all science has been proven wrong by better science over time so it's logical that there is a place in science for people to question.
cheers

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#1468208 - 03/08/2018 09:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cant see what all the fuss about discussing an 11 year solar cycle in terms of climate driving is all about (unless it goes against an agenda?).

Am I correct in saying that some oceanic gyre(?) cycles are also out to circa 8 year rotations?

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#1468210 - 03/08/2018 09:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Quote:
I must admit I laughed quite a lot at this little gem! Imagine Al, Tim, James and co roaming free with their imaginations..... oh wait.....


Quote:
Theory's from Svensmark and Marsh which are observable for me hold a lot more water than some Random Hokey stick Models that spliced proxie models with recent observations and passed them off as Science.


A bit more than just discussing 11 year solar cycles, which I have no personal objection to.

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#1468215 - 03/08/2018 10:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Sorry Mike I guess my earlier post started part of this current conversation.

Happy to discuss solar cycles but I'm skeptical of how much impact they have on the climate cycles such as IOD, ENSO, AMO, PDO, AAO etc that we want to be able to discuss freely on these threads.

I guess what I was trying to say in previous posts is I don't see much of a place for discussion on solar activity in most of the climate cycle discussion we have on this thread (outside of the paper I saw recently making the 2020 La Nina prediction which I really am not convinced on in terms of the causality).

For me solar will always be a longer term player which you and others have pointed out then takes us into areas we shouldn't be discussing here (in the interests of at least being able to keep the climate cycles discussion thread going).
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1468217 - 03/08/2018 10:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Are La Nina's associated with solar minimums?

Data - annual sunspot count, and nino 3.4 values for Dec, Jan Feb. Period from 1870 to 2016 (current minima excluded)

Year is considered as La Nina if summer nino 3.4 is below -0.8.

Resulting percentage of years with a La Nina, relative to minima:
-2 yrs 15%
-1 yrs 15%
0 yrs 23%
1 yr 15%
2 yr 31%
all years 21%

Conclusion - no significant increase in the chance of a La Nina near a solar minimum.



edit: posted before I saw Locke's comment. A paper forecasting La Nina in 2020 might hold more water than what I would admit is a bit of a rough statistics exercise. Depends on the quality of the paper.



Edited by Mike Hauber (03/08/2018 11:01)

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#1468218 - 03/08/2018 11:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber

Do we need a new thread to discuss stuff like ENSO/IOD/PDO etc?

Originally Posted By: Locke
I guess what I was trying to say in previous posts is I don't see much of a place for discussion on solar activity in most of the climate cycle discussion we have on this thread (outside of the paper I saw recently making the 2020 La Nina prediction which I really am not convinced on in terms of the causality).

For me solar will always be a longer term player which you and others have pointed out then takes us into areas we shouldn't be discussing here (in the interests of at least being able to keep the climate cycles discussion thread going).

Keep this thread on the shorter term "cycles" / "indicators" and start another on the solar topic is probably better.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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