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#1449943 - 24/01/2018 11:56 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 613
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Any indication as to when thge monsoon with go inactive. Although cant trust long range forecasting, as according to gfs 2 weeks ago we should be looking down the barrel of a cat 4 or 5 lol
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (feb 2018]: 216.7mm (Ave 435mm)
Jan 2018: 217.4mm (avg 465mm)
YTD 2018 434.1mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1449945 - 24/01/2018 12:01 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1077
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
I never look at anything over a week ahead when it comes to models. They NEVER (ok once - Yasi) get it right. Anyone who plans their lives/weekends around those models - dont waste your time!
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1449951 - 24/01/2018 12:22 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12732
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
We just need the predicted Low in the GOC to move further south as it moves towards the CS, and we should see some semi decent falls.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1449952 - 24/01/2018 12:23 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: ol mate]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 415
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: ol mate
I never look at anything over a week ahead when it comes to models. They NEVER (ok once - Yasi) get it right. Anyone who plans their lives/weekends around those models - dont waste your time!

Forecasting is less accurate the further out you go as the slightest variation compounds to become a larger variation.
The basic idea hasnít changed in 100 years but our ability to do it has changed enormously with increasing amounts of data ó from weather balloons, commercial aircraft as they fly along, satellite measurements, how fast cloud moves, how much the earth glows infra-red, radio waves the earth emits, and that has allowed us to create higher resolution and finer scale models.

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#1449958 - 24/01/2018 12:37 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25052
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
We just need the predicted Low in the GOC to move further south as it moves towards the CS, and we should see some semi decent falls.


Our problem isnt just the low being slightly too far north, but also that the models keep the CS low/tc further east in the area meaning the onshore flow is too SSE drying us out as the GOC low moves across the cape. obviously we usually get the east to north east flow with GOC low. we are getting screwed over by multiple variables!
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2018 total - 144.2mm (274mm)
February 2018 total - 36.8mm (283mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 181.0mm (1122mm)

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#1449959 - 24/01/2018 12:52 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12732
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Yeah it's not an ideal setup. frown
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1449987 - 24/01/2018 16:07 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25052
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Nah sadly not mate, still what has gone our way this past few years? just the norm.

BOM giving the Coral Sea low a moderate chance by Saturday, as expected, going to go east to south east.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2018 total - 144.2mm (274mm)
February 2018 total - 36.8mm (283mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 181.0mm (1122mm)

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#1449998 - 24/01/2018 17:38 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 613
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Bah...oh well next time.

Time to leave Townsville. Ive been here 2.5 years and Im over it....we get alot of rain up here but its still not reliable being too close to the dry tropics area, im seriously thinking of relocating to somewhere with a little more reliable rain. I nearly lost a lot of my yearling fruit trees last month/early Jan. As its been shocking. Seriously time to think.

Oh anf what a surprise the MJO is weakening too.


Edited by rainthisway (24/01/2018 17:48)
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (feb 2018]: 216.7mm (Ave 435mm)
Jan 2018: 217.4mm (avg 465mm)
YTD 2018 434.1mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1450059 - 25/01/2018 09:42 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25052
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Rain doing its best to stay away, burdekin coast getting a drop but it dries up as it moves west. forecast for this arvo is ok, bom mentioning possibly heavy falls in the south and east. we just have to be lucky (i hope).
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2018 total - 144.2mm (274mm)
February 2018 total - 36.8mm (283mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 181.0mm (1122mm)

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#1450078 - 25/01/2018 13:14 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Wezza Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2008
Posts: 677
Loc: North Ward, Townsville. Toll, ...
CBD about to cop a heavy shower.

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#1450082 - 25/01/2018 13:35 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12732
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Bucketing in the CBD, water everywhere. grin
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1450083 - 25/01/2018 13:52 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
slipperyfish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1270
Loc: South Mission Beach QLD
Currently at Lucinda house sitting for a few days. Been raining steadily all morning. The gauge has over 25mm in it and havenít seen the jetty in over an hour, but the Lucinda alert has registered stuff all.

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#1450094 - 25/01/2018 15:47 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23604
Loc: Townsville
Incredible showers. [censored] yes.

How good is it that 10-20mm is all we look forward to these days.

Incredible wet season
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1450104 - 25/01/2018 16:37 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25052
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Late January and we arejumping up and down over 20mms - sad hey?

Should be getting this almost everyday this time of year. NTC will get smashex with 100-200mm falls tonight and tomorrow
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2018 total - 144.2mm (274mm)
February 2018 total - 36.8mm (283mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 181.0mm (1122mm)

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#1450211 - 26/01/2018 11:29 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25052
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
33mm from yesterdays rain.

once again, just one day of showers and thats it, all moves on and back to hardly anything. just no widespread rain, nothing exciting on the future either unless by some chance the GOC low moves back east which is about 40% split on the models. time is ticking.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2018 total - 144.2mm (274mm)
February 2018 total - 36.8mm (283mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 181.0mm (1122mm)

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#1450465 - 27/01/2018 16:40 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 613
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I said in the cyclone room the same thing but we prob wont get any decent rains til march or april. Thats when a cyclone will cross this year I think.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (feb 2018]: 216.7mm (Ave 435mm)
Jan 2018: 217.4mm (avg 465mm)
YTD 2018 434.1mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

Top
#1450581 - 28/01/2018 14:47 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 613
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Looks like a possiblity of showers for the ville if those keep building up to there SE.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (feb 2018]: 216.7mm (Ave 435mm)
Jan 2018: 217.4mm (avg 465mm)
YTD 2018 434.1mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

Top
#1450597 - 28/01/2018 16:25 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25052
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Storm died on our door step. Another cell out there but too far south. Still more out there than i thought there would be today.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2018 total - 144.2mm (274mm)
February 2018 total - 36.8mm (283mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 181.0mm (1122mm)

Top
#1450610 - 28/01/2018 18:03 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25052
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
second storm in two hours, both split around and die at the last moment frown
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2018 total - 144.2mm (274mm)
February 2018 total - 36.8mm (283mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 181.0mm (1122mm)

Top
#1450612 - 28/01/2018 18:21 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
mitasol Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/12/2011
Posts: 878
Loc: Kirwan
Originally Posted By: Mick10
second storm in two hours, both split around and die at the last moment frown


Hello, this is Townsville.

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