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#1446541 - 31/12/2017 17:42 Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1267
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thought I'd get this thread going in
Anticipation of some pretty warm temps
And a possibly stormy cool change at the
End of it all.

Could possibly be a pretty bad fire day
On the Saturday as well, with temps
Soaring to as high as 45c pretty much along
The whole Murray river!! Grading back
To near 40c in the south of Victoria.

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#1446561 - 31/12/2017 19:32 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yeah looks like a very dangerous heatwave is on its way to Victoria from the Outback - going for 39C and 45C in Melbourne and Mildura respectively next Saturday! And could be potentially dangerous bushfire conditions as a result. frown

Thankfully the majority of the week will offer more pleasing summer weather across much of the State - mid/high-20s and low-30s.

I'm leaving for Corryong, Northeast Victoria early this coming week. Judging by the latest forecast for most of the coming 7-day period for the Upper Murray it'll be comfortable at night with lows dipping into teens, followed by afternoons averaging around 31C. Plenty of sunshine, although there may be the odd shower and/or thunderstorm about the Victorian High Country and along the NSW Snowy Mountains as a trough extends south along the East Coast and Great Dividing Range.

The heat really starts to kick-in by Friday, and I wouldn't rule out Corryong nudging 40C on Saturday/Sunday. Thank goodness for air-conditioning! And hoping some good storms break out on Sunday and especially the following Monday. smile

I'm not heading to Merimbula on the NSW South Coast this year unfortunately and my time away from Melbourne will be brief due to personal commitments.

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#1446611 - 01/01/2018 11:27 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hoping for a storm with the Sunday change, ......but dunno, will the moisture arriving with the hot northerly ahead be sufficient?

At least a 2 day "flash in the pan" heat event is typical of La Nina - by the weekend we should be left with low pressure over large areas of inland Aus. Whatever event unfolds after this one could well be thundery (...or we enter a thundery period).

Here's GFS's take on the heat in SE Aus later this week:


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#1446616 - 01/01/2018 12:52 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2083
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Nothing has been started in the SA forum about this event yet so thought I'd hop across the border and give my view on the upcoming event for late this week

After November 2017's late spring burst of abnormal temps above 30 which ended in that severe storm outbreak that needless to say caused lots of mayhem and chaos this weeks severe heat comes as nothing short of a surprise given its the norm to have pretty hot temps during Jan/Feb

However the temps for Fri/Sat are definitely cause for concern this early given how dry it is on both sides of the border and being that our hottest month isn't until February

Summing it up the thread title pretty much describes what were facing late this week but both VIC and SA must not overlook the possibility of some nasty storms from the hot spell

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#1446622 - 01/01/2018 13:55 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks for the visit rts smile - a slight consolation after you SA's stole Anthony Violi from our side of the border! wink

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#1446695 - 01/01/2018 18:51 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Definitely a long way out, but this day 8 GFS scenario (if it were to become reality) is hinting that this La Nina summer for Vic perhaps(?) may not be the bushfire ridden period of endurance that we all know/remember too well??:


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#1447180 - 03/01/2018 20:51 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A bit early for this thread, but cloudy all day, got to 27C here late in day without sea breeze.

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#1447191 - 03/01/2018 21:37 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1267
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Reached 24c up here today and mostly
Sunny.

Saturday still looming as a very hot windy
One that's for sure!!
I'm tipping 40+ around Gippsland. Could
See some very high temps around the place!

It also looks to be a windy dry change as
Well so a big drying period coming up.

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#1447199 - 03/01/2018 22:50 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2537
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very cool down at night time feels cold and only get one or 2 days hot days and no heatwave days yet seem La Nina cool Victoria..

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#1447285 - 04/01/2018 18:27 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
More sunshine today saw us get to a late 29C after a mild 13C night.

....I think we'll all survive the one hot day looming Saturday, ie. it not arriving as the swan song after 5 hot days as can happen in Vic Summer!

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#1447287 - 04/01/2018 18:39 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
An update at what GFS thinks will happen next Tuesday post the hot weekend"



Shows to me tropical moisture in Coral Sea, angling towards QLD, heaps of tropical convection up NW Aus, a ridge over Qld coast supressing rain, and a high to pass over Vic.

To me, this is the perfect prelude to the formation of a general large area inland low to form over central Aus. For us, a potential "Easterly dip" scenario whereby moisture feeds storms advected from the NE??

If its not La Nina, ....it looks like one to me!

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#1447350 - 05/01/2018 07:45 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Next 7 days on WZ for SALE, GIPPSLAND are fairly benign Petros, only 2 of the 7 over 30C.

Maximum 28C 41C 25C 29C 23C 26C 31C
Minimum 13C 15C 17C 13C 15C 11C 15C

One 40C+ with no lead up or repetition aren't to bad to live with.

GO LA NINA grin
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1447387 - 05/01/2018 13:51 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2537
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Just One day 42c heat Saturday may not hurt too much unless no stupid people with camping fires, farmers machinery and people like light fires...

We are lucky not getting much HOT NW gusty winds as winds always swing SW to SE every time High Pressure move in narrow..

Now 33c at 1.40pm

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#1447442 - 05/01/2018 18:01 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
DanielB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 100
Loc: Bulleen VIC
Am considering going to the Big Bash in the evening.

Does anyone have any idea what time the cool change is expected? Bureau's "evening" far too vague!

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#1447450 - 05/01/2018 18:18 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
BOM says 26C by 2000hrs - Some wind about though :-

http://www.bom.gov.au/places/vic/melbourne/forecast/detailed/#d2018-01-06
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1447451 - 05/01/2018 18:19 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
I'd say around 7 looking at the latest model runs, I'll post the official wind change map when its released in the morning
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1447466 - 05/01/2018 19:00 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Sunny calm 30C here today, only a trace of seabreeze.

Still looks green around Maffra, will probably be looking a bit singed by Sunday.

Bring on the effects of a weak summer La Nina!f (we may not need to wait long looking at the large areas of low pressure over Aus later next week??).

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#1447496 - 05/01/2018 21:07 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Media News Break today, Minister for Hot Days, Emerg.(ing) Comm. etc advising Victorians that this is Australia in Summer & after Christmas and NYE we are in January and we are about to have a HOT DAY, strike me pink but this has been happening for the entire settlement of the continent !!

If people haven't worked this out by now then the jobs the subject of intercourse.....lol... grin
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1447497 - 05/01/2018 21:16 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
More serious note, ACCESS tonight shows much less rain over central Gipp, apart from welcome cooler weather, not much rain on that basis.

Maybe next week smile
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1447498 - 05/01/2018 21:26 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1267
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep samboz,it's really just a big dry out
Day for around here(tommoz)

But if we don't receive good rain over the
Next week or so(like u say)then things could be
A little interesting heading into what is
Traditionally the hottest part of summer
(End of Jan into feb)

For those people out north/west and central
Vic tommoz where it is dry, hopefully it's a
Good day and there a no serious fires👍

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