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#1446541 - 31/12/2017 17:42 Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thought I'd get this thread going in
Anticipation of some pretty warm temps
And a possibly stormy cool change at the
End of it all.

Could possibly be a pretty bad fire day
On the Saturday as well, with temps
Soaring to as high as 45c pretty much along
The whole Murray river!! Grading back
To near 40c in the south of Victoria.

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#1446561 - 31/12/2017 19:32 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yeah looks like a very dangerous heatwave is on its way to Victoria from the Outback - going for 39C and 45C in Melbourne and Mildura respectively next Saturday! And could be potentially dangerous bushfire conditions as a result. frown

Thankfully the majority of the week will offer more pleasing summer weather across much of the State - mid/high-20s and low-30s.

I'm leaving for Corryong, Northeast Victoria early this coming week. Judging by the latest forecast for most of the coming 7-day period for the Upper Murray it'll be comfortable at night with lows dipping into teens, followed by afternoons averaging around 31C. Plenty of sunshine, although there may be the odd shower and/or thunderstorm about the Victorian High Country and along the NSW Snowy Mountains as a trough extends south along the East Coast and Great Dividing Range.

The heat really starts to kick-in by Friday, and I wouldn't rule out Corryong nudging 40C on Saturday/Sunday. Thank goodness for air-conditioning! And hoping some good storms break out on Sunday and especially the following Monday. smile

I'm not heading to Merimbula on the NSW South Coast this year unfortunately and my time away from Melbourne will be brief due to personal commitments.

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#1446611 - 01/01/2018 11:27 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hoping for a storm with the Sunday change, ......but dunno, will the moisture arriving with the hot northerly ahead be sufficient?

At least a 2 day "flash in the pan" heat event is typical of La Nina - by the weekend we should be left with low pressure over large areas of inland Aus. Whatever event unfolds after this one could well be thundery (...or we enter a thundery period).

Here's GFS's take on the heat in SE Aus later this week:


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#1446616 - 01/01/2018 12:52 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
rstewart84 Offline
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Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2080
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Nothing has been started in the SA forum about this event yet so thought I'd hop across the border and give my view on the upcoming event for late this week

After November 2017's late spring burst of abnormal temps above 30 which ended in that severe storm outbreak that needless to say caused lots of mayhem and chaos this weeks severe heat comes as nothing short of a surprise given its the norm to have pretty hot temps during Jan/Feb

However the temps for Fri/Sat are definitely cause for concern this early given how dry it is on both sides of the border and being that our hottest month isn't until February

Summing it up the thread title pretty much describes what were facing late this week but both VIC and SA must not overlook the possibility of some nasty storms from the hot spell

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#1446622 - 01/01/2018 13:55 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks for the visit rts smile - a slight consolation after you SA's stole Anthony Violi from our side of the border! wink

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#1446695 - 01/01/2018 18:51 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Definitely a long way out, but this day 8 GFS scenario (if it were to become reality) is hinting that this La Nina summer for Vic perhaps(?) may not be the bushfire ridden period of endurance that we all know/remember too well??:


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#1447180 - 03/01/2018 20:51 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A bit early for this thread, but cloudy all day, got to 27C here late in day without sea breeze.

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#1447191 - 03/01/2018 21:37 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Reached 24c up here today and mostly
Sunny.

Saturday still looming as a very hot windy
One that's for sure!!
I'm tipping 40+ around Gippsland. Could
See some very high temps around the place!

It also looks to be a windy dry change as
Well so a big drying period coming up.

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#1447199 - 03/01/2018 22:50 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very cool down at night time feels cold and only get one or 2 days hot days and no heatwave days yet seem La Nina cool Victoria..

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#1447285 - 04/01/2018 18:27 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
More sunshine today saw us get to a late 29C after a mild 13C night.

....I think we'll all survive the one hot day looming Saturday, ie. it not arriving as the swan song after 5 hot days as can happen in Vic Summer!

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#1447287 - 04/01/2018 18:39 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
An update at what GFS thinks will happen next Tuesday post the hot weekend"



Shows to me tropical moisture in Coral Sea, angling towards QLD, heaps of tropical convection up NW Aus, a ridge over Qld coast supressing rain, and a high to pass over Vic.

To me, this is the perfect prelude to the formation of a general large area inland low to form over central Aus. For us, a potential "Easterly dip" scenario whereby moisture feeds storms advected from the NE??

If its not La Nina, ....it looks like one to me!

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#1447350 - 05/01/2018 07:45 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Next 7 days on WZ for SALE, GIPPSLAND are fairly benign Petros, only 2 of the 7 over 30C.

Maximum 28C 41C 25C 29C 23C 26C 31C
Minimum 13C 15C 17C 13C 15C 11C 15C

One 40C+ with no lead up or repetition aren't to bad to live with.

GO LA NINA grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1447387 - 05/01/2018 13:51 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Just One day 42c heat Saturday may not hurt too much unless no stupid people with camping fires, farmers machinery and people like light fires...

We are lucky not getting much HOT NW gusty winds as winds always swing SW to SE every time High Pressure move in narrow..

Now 33c at 1.40pm

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#1447442 - 05/01/2018 18:01 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
DanielB Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 100
Loc: Bulleen VIC
Am considering going to the Big Bash in the evening.

Does anyone have any idea what time the cool change is expected? Bureau's "evening" far too vague!

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#1447450 - 05/01/2018 18:18 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
BOM says 26C by 2000hrs - Some wind about though :-

http://www.bom.gov.au/places/vic/melbourne/forecast/detailed/#d2018-01-06
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1447451 - 05/01/2018 18:19 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
I'd say around 7 looking at the latest model runs, I'll post the official wind change map when its released in the morning
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1447466 - 05/01/2018 19:00 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Sunny calm 30C here today, only a trace of seabreeze.

Still looks green around Maffra, will probably be looking a bit singed by Sunday.

Bring on the effects of a weak summer La Nina!f (we may not need to wait long looking at the large areas of low pressure over Aus later next week??).

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#1447496 - 05/01/2018 21:07 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Media News Break today, Minister for Hot Days, Emerg.(ing) Comm. etc advising Victorians that this is Australia in Summer & after Christmas and NYE we are in January and we are about to have a HOT DAY, strike me pink but this has been happening for the entire settlement of the continent !!

If people haven't worked this out by now then the jobs the subject of intercourse.....lol... grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1447497 - 05/01/2018 21:16 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
More serious note, ACCESS tonight shows much less rain over central Gipp, apart from welcome cooler weather, not much rain on that basis.

Maybe next week smile
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1447498 - 05/01/2018 21:26 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep samboz,it's really just a big dry out
Day for around here(tommoz)

But if we don't receive good rain over the
Next week or so(like u say)then things could be
A little interesting heading into what is
Traditionally the hottest part of summer
(End of Jan into feb)

For those people out north/west and central
Vic tommoz where it is dry, hopefully it's a
Good day and there a no serious fires👍

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#1447522 - 06/01/2018 08:04 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Got to 31.4c yesterday after 5pm, still night got down to 14 around 330. Light North woft atm has us at 23.3
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1447523 - 06/01/2018 08:19 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Already up to 24c here

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#1447525 - 06/01/2018 08:45 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
32c already been hit here
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1447534 - 06/01/2018 09:49 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
29c here now and the nor wester just starting
To blow up here! Which is very early
For my part of the world

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#1447544 - 06/01/2018 10:24 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
36 here now and the wind is really picking up - BTW I am currently in Portland
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1447549 - 06/01/2018 11:10 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Wondered about that Logansi, 34.5C here with moderate Northerly just stared.

Being a Saturday, in Holiday season, with all Vic brown coal generators online, ...and with 1,250 MW of wind generation operating at present, and not expected to taper off till later in the afternoon - would take an "X factor" incident (e.g. fire under critical power lines, etc) to cause any power supply issues in Vic today.

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#1447552 - 06/01/2018 11:46 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
32.7 here which is nearly the warmest day this summer already. Dp still holding in double figures though the solid breeze we have has moved from NNE to NNW in the last half hour or so and would expect the DP to start dropping off.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1447553 - 06/01/2018 11:52 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very Gusty windy of 37c at 11.45am

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#1447554 - 06/01/2018 11:55 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
34c here and now a really strong nor wester!

Severe weather warning for damaging
North west wind has now been
Extended through central and west south
Gippy for 90km!

Supports what logansi is stating about a
Possibly a worse day than originally first
Thought

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#1447555 - 06/01/2018 11:56 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Make that 35c

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#1447557 - 06/01/2018 12:03 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
39c here now, RH at 15%
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1447559 - 06/01/2018 12:11 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
And there goes the big 40
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1447561 - 06/01/2018 12:16 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Rediculous temps for so early

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#1447562 - 06/01/2018 12:24 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
No clouds in outback cook up surface fast and blow hot air right to SE is hot spot for every summer... Like last November 2017 heatwave..

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#1447565 - 06/01/2018 13:03 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Cracked 35 here now and Dp just below 9 now and falling. Wind quite gusty at times from NNW
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1447567 - 06/01/2018 13:29 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Change is here with wind now from the west, temp down to 32 - very violent wind change, wind in the 20mins before it was shocking, things going everywhere.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1447573 - 06/01/2018 14:05 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
39c at 2pm and very windy not that gusty yet once change get near it.

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#1447576 - 06/01/2018 14:12 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 210
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
40.3C here

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#1447577 - 06/01/2018 14:24 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
39c and a strong nor wester still blowing!!

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#1447578 - 06/01/2018 14:31 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
40.5c first of year 2018..

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#1447580 - 06/01/2018 14:40 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
37.1c , didn't crack 37 at all last summer. Might get past 38 yet.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1447581 - 06/01/2018 14:47 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Nice ruck

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#1447582 - 06/01/2018 14:49 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Gee she's browned off today!! Just about
Watch it I reckon!

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#1447585 - 06/01/2018 15:07 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Jilly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 179
Loc: Warrnambool
Hi all....change has just ripped through here from the souwest at a zillion miles an hour,lots of debris around the garden, much cooler!

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#1447590 - 06/01/2018 15:18 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Portland has dropped to 22.6C

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#1447607 - 06/01/2018 15:51 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Not very good as change have lighting in cloud band..

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#1447628 - 06/01/2018 17:26 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey guys! A belated Happy New Year. All the best for 2018. Reporting from Corryong, Northeast Victoria. smile

Firstly heres my report for the first four days of the year from my home in Belgrave.

Monday January 1st 2018
Low: 13.1C High: 31.5C Rain: 0mm

Tuesday January 2nd 2018
Low: 14.4C High: 28.1C Rain: 0mm

Wednesday January 3rd 2018
Low: 12.4C High: 25.0C Rain: Trace

Thursday January 4th 2018
Low: 10.6C High: 30.6C Rain: Trace

Except for a couple of cloudy periods, and also a few very light showers on the Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak cold front brushed by to the south, its been very pleasing mid-summer weather. Cool at night, warm to hot and mostly sunny by day with refreshing breezes. smile

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#1447629 - 06/01/2018 17:29 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
And now my report for Friday January 5th 2018, when I left Melbourne for my current short break away in Corryong. smile

My family and I left home in Belgrave a little after 12:30pm, stopping for lunch in nearby Monbulk around 1pm, and for fuel in Lilydale at about 1:30pm.

From there we departed Melbourne and travelled north up the Melba Highway, reaching Yea by 2:30pm. Then after a 20-minute drive northwest along the Goulburn Valley Highway, we stopped in Seymour for a snack.

Shortly after 3:30pm we joined the M31 Hume Freeway (Melbourne-Sydney), reaching Albury/Wodonga at 5:30pm; it was good to be able to cross the Murray River into NSW/ACT yet again! After about 90 minutes of shopping and dinner, we continued east along the Murray Valley Highway, arriving in Corryong just on sunset! smile

Weatherwise it was true mid-summer conditions during the entire road trip! No trace whatsoever of last winters freezing chill, or the chilly nights and mild to warm afternoons of last autumn or spring. crazy

The whole day it was mostly clear skies (except for some fair-weather cumulus, and high-level cirrus later in the day), scorching sunshine, a slight breeze, and low humidity. It looked a little hazy towards Tumbarumba and the NSW Snowy Mountains once we arrived in the Upper Murray. There was also a bit of mushy/bubbly stuff along the Australian Alps (mostly about the Victorian High Country), but no showers or thunderstorms resulted.

Up until we reached Glenburn in the Yea River Valley temperatures stayed in the mid/high-twenties, making conditions feel very pleasant for being outside whenever possible. As we continued northwards into the Murray-Darling Basin it became progressively hotter, breaching the 32C/90F mark by the time we arrived in Yea. poke

Beyond Seymour, temperatures soared to over 35C across the Northern Plains and over the Murray River into the NSW Riverina; it peaked at about 36C in Wangaratta and Albury/Wodonga btw. eek

The mercury was still around 34C by the time we left the Border region after dinner and it stayed that way until we had past Bullioh, not far beyond Tallangatta. But it dropped about 10C as we climbed up to Koetong and Shelley! And after descending into the Upper Murray at Berringama, it remained around 24C right through to Corryong. smile

Northern Victoria looks noticeably drier already (as opposed to the Melbourne area), but thanks to the recent heavy rainfall so far this summer its still relatively green in places, particularly here in the Corryong area.

And Lake Hume is just under 71% capacity, according to Goulburn-Murray Water. smile

Back home in Belgrave, it ranged from a minimum of 11.9C to a maximum of 23.4C at midday (around the time I had to switch off my weather station). Nearby Scoresby ranged from about 12C to about 32C.

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#1447632 - 06/01/2018 17:38 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
And as for today here in Corryong, it's been a very, VERY hot, dry, mostly sunny day, peaking at about 38C on my thermometer! Quite gusty winds too; the breeze itself has a bite to it. Thank goodness for the air-con. eek

It was a very comfortable night though, dipping to around 14C this morning.

Still around 37C at nearby Khancoban, NSW. Looking forward to hitting the local swimming pool for a dip. smile

Going for 41C tomorrow! frown

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#1447640 - 06/01/2018 18:37 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Try again... 42C with pulsing NNW'ly wind, ....and power has been out here for more than an hour. So much for Petro's power predictions earlier!

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#1447642 - 06/01/2018 18:40 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I;ve got a battery 4GX internet thingy. It is continually (unusually) dropping out.

Concerns if there was a genuine emergency! - pretty sure our power issue is Maffra local.

Sympathise with those in SA during the last load shedding event there on a hot day at 6pm (SE SA). Same here.

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#1447643 - 06/01/2018 18:43 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: Petros
- pretty sure our power issue is Maffra local.

.


A number of brief (ie 1 second) disconnections here today P.

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#1447644 - 06/01/2018 18:43 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cant ring elderly parents, the power no phone for them. (It's ok they are in town) .....but food for thought in a statewide event.

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#1447645 - 06/01/2018 18:44 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: Petros
Cant ring elderly parents, the power no phone for them. (It's ok they are in town) .....but food for thought in a statewide event.


Very true.

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#1447646 - 06/01/2018 18:46 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Power just resumed - fans again!! smile smile

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#1447650 - 06/01/2018 19:18 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
37.8c for a max here, was still 36.2c at 654 when the wind change got here, currently 30.7c
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1447655 - 06/01/2018 19:33 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
40++ here still. Thank God power is back on. IF La Nina doesnt come to play, Feb would be a diaster for Victoria's older folk (not to mention all the families in eve-less houses in the estates errected over the past 10 years....

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#1447657 - 06/01/2018 19:37 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Originally Posted By: Petros
Try again... 42C with pulsing NNW'ly wind, ....and power has been out here for more than an hour. So much for Petro's power predictions earlier!


No flickers of power supply Sale today P, hottish and fairly calm day with 40C, as long as not working in it OK.

The change later will be nice.

All this combustible fuel in suburbia, got me beat why it's not reduced beforehand.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1447679 - 06/01/2018 21:45 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 210
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Peaked at 42.8C at 17:38. 0.1C off my station's current record eek

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#1447680 - 06/01/2018 21:48 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Good one Alex ... as Max Smart would say, "missed it by THAT much!"

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#1447769 - 07/01/2018 13:21 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
G'day everyone! smile

It ranged between 13.0C and 39.0C at the Corryong Airport yesterday, while nearby Khancoban, NSW ranged from 13.0C to 37.0C. I'll need to wait at least another 24 hours before I can get the exact stats from BOM and Weatherzone.

But in summary, it was a HOT day here in the Upper Murray! eek

Very warm evening last night here in town. These are the temperature observations I made from my thermometer at my private residence:

32C at sunset (around 8:30pm)
30C at 9pm
25C at 11pm
24C at midnight

But the dry air, and lack of cloud, pollution and moonlight made for a beautiful starry night! Perfect for viewing the Milky Way and Southern Cross while seeking the Andromeda Galaxy. Only some very slight light pollution visible to the west towards Albury/Wodonga, plus a few planes flying between Melbourne and Sydney (and one heading to Nadi in Fiji). smile

And it cooled off nicely as the night wore on, dipping to 12.9C at the local airport this morning, way below the predicted minimum of only 19C. smile

But it's getting very hot very quickly yet again! Still going for a scorching 41C here in Corryong. It's currently 37C on my thermometer, and 35C at Khancoban. The heat out there is punishing and the breeze has no relief to it! Indoors the air-con is bliss, and I'll head to the local swimming pool again later.

It's a bit hazy out there, and the skies to the northeast are cloud-free. To the west and southwest there's high cloud beginning to arrive as a result of the cold front crossing Victoria, and also due to a low pressure trough dipping south from the Northern Territory through Eastern South Australia and Western New South Wales and Queensland. We may see a stray shower and/or thunderstorm later, but not much chance of any useful rainfall until tomorrow at this stage.

Thankfully the Northeast district is only under a Very High fire danger rating, so no TFB atm.

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#1447777 - 07/01/2018 13:59 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Winds mixing SE to SW to West winds of 34c and i think in middle of trough belt of North Heat and Cool SE narrow High pressure.

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#1447808 - 07/01/2018 14:58 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Just came back inside to check on conditions, it is a blast-furnace here in Corryong! eek

At the last check my thermometer showed 39C (it's 38C in nearby Khancoban). It is blazing hot outside, and even the wind or high cloud provide no relief from the scorching sun! Could easily top 40C. eek eek

There is some convection appearing off to the north and northeast beyond Tumbarumba and the NSW Snowies (particularly towards Canberra), and there's a line of storms sparking up along a line from Tumut into the Outback north of Hillston. Hopefully they're not high-based. frown

Seems that the best chance of relief will be overnight and tomorrow as the change combines with the incoming trough from the northwest; hopefully some good soaking storms are on the way. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (07/01/2018 14:59)

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#1447811 - 07/01/2018 15:11 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Overcast upper cirrus with green on radar is dry no showers..of 33c...
Thunderstorms likely along Murray VIC/NSW border.

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#1447820 - 07/01/2018 15:31 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Temperature's just nudged 40C here in Corryong, with 38C at Khancoban.

Convection bubbling away nicely along the northern horizon, and I can just barely see the cumulonimbus anvils of some juicy storms that are closing in on Canberra from Tumut/Gundagai. smile

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#1447842 - 07/01/2018 16:25 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Heavy thunderstorms firing up North of SA past Broken Hill to Batesman Bay...

Tomorrow stalling trough thunderstorms chances effect Central to Northern Victoria and East Victoria depends on trough location

NSW more likely Bush-fires risk by lighting storms.


Edited by chasers addict (07/01/2018 16:33)

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#1447875 - 07/01/2018 17:45 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
28.5C here today after (....eventually) a reasonable overnight low of 19.9C. We didnt experience any "weather" with the change.

Despite working in the Power Generation Industry, yesterday's late afternoon/evening blackout in 42C weather was a sobering eye opener for me and many.

For example, I couldnt ring my old parents as their phone needs power, the mobile phone service and FTTN internet dropped out across the town after only an hour which affected communications for our local power distribution linesmen to contact each other/arrange call ins etc. Dairy farmers with herds stuck in a hot milking shed with no pump to cool the cows (many have standby generators, many more will after yesterday), the local pubs having to shut for Sat night counter meals during Lake Glenmaggie holiday season, most locals not able to cook tea till 7pm, all hot in stuffy houses etc...

For Maffra, this would have been chaos if the reason for the power failure was bushfire looming into the region!

Our power outage was apparently caused by "issues" at the towns main sub-station.

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#1447883 - 07/01/2018 19:11 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Did the 100+ generators at Morwell get fired up P, sounds like Maffra just got the chop to me - (as Devils Advocate)

The issue was - ?

Nice today, saw 29C at one stage, prob got to 30C but OK after y'day.

Loving the late arvo' sea breeze in the big smoke, very refreshing.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1447893 - 07/01/2018 20:04 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Thunderstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/12/2012
Posts: 126
Loc: sw suburbs of Adelaide
Todays Max over 40C , broke a record , it was the 6th day since Jan 1st. 2010 that , O.H. has reached 40C, previous record was in the 1940s with 5 days of 40C or more, were recorded. Between 1965 & 1976 no day reached 40C.

Just a bit of trivia..
,

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#1447920 - 07/01/2018 23:23 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Thunderstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/12/2012
Posts: 126
Loc: sw suburbs of Adelaide
Ops wrong thread !!!

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#1447946 - 08/01/2018 10:38 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Issues at the Maffra Sub Station Samboz, I was told.

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#1447950 - 08/01/2018 11:26 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Keep eye as thundery activity from NW to NE "Northern Country" as through still in North and East as High Pressure has not moved upward yet..28c at 11am..

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#1447954 - 08/01/2018 12:05 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thamks to humid got pull in from NSW last night now is raining easy

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#1448007 - 08/01/2018 18:42 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Some thunder around over the last hour here at home
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1448009 - 08/01/2018 18:58 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Circa 24C muggy here today, (needs/must ...I reset my gauge when I get home from work - was warmer at this time yest, so going by temps at Loy Yang). Drove through some fat-dropped showers on way to work this morning but cleared to a gloomy day, only a TC in my gauge here.

Hoping for a lick from storm remnants heading our way from NW right now.

Nice to see a tendancy for large areas of low pressure trying to form over central Aus as this season progresses, adds confidence for La Nina rainfall over coming months. .....another cyclone for WA add's the vital ingedient: X Factor!

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#1448012 - 08/01/2018 19:44 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
1.7mm just emptied
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1448148 - 09/01/2018 18:20 Re: Severe heat/possible fire threat/cool change with storms(4/1/18-7/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Just to cap off this thread.
What looked to be the more significant
Showers and storms all went to the north
Of us yesterday and early evening last night.
We only managed a trace of rain(which I couldn even record as first rain of month) with a couple
Of brief showers yesterday!!

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