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#1471773 - 01/10/2018 19:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Interesting reading RWM. Always fascinated by factors inhibiting or encouraging Thunderstorm development.Good stuff

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#1471781 - 01/10/2018 20:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7321
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I would say the Fraser Coast has seen a general decline in TS activity over the years while the Burnett and parts of the Wide Bay remain unaffected. I've said it plenty of times on here before but we almost never get big storms during the night hours anymore whereas growing up in the '90s I can remember many. As soon as storms come off the range south and west of Tiaro, 99% of the time they'll completely disintegrate into nothing more than a few drops of rain. Something definitely changed over the years, I don't know if it's stronger capping near the coast these days, stronger seabreezes...I really don't know. But I do know that we used to get some real doozies at night back in the day which rarely make it here nowadays.

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#1471784 - 01/10/2018 20:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2245
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Great post RWM.

This thread was from earlier in the year, but it has some really good information about ideal storm set-ups for various locations in SEQ.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...orm#Post1447137

This picture below I sourced from one of Dr Joshua Soderholm's papers. I would agree that these are the two main track paths for storms in SEQ:



Edited by Nature's Fury (01/10/2018 20:59)

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#1471786 - 01/10/2018 21:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5546
Still looking like much of the potential rainfall from the increasing instability & moisture from later this week & possibly next week may be convective so the higher amounts may be a bit hit and miss. But the end of this week might be one of those periods where rainfall may be a bit steadier for a time due to the upstream upper trough.

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#1471790 - 01/10/2018 21:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3295
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yes very interesting posts. Will have to look into this some more.


Edited by Steve O (01/10/2018 21:36)

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#1471792 - 01/10/2018 21:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2245
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Damn next Monday afternoon looks incredible on GFS. Low 30s before a perfectly timed southerly change, big CAPE, cold mids/uppers, shear, the works. No doubt it'll all change before then. Still looks like a possible storm/rain outbreak around that time though.

This is starting to look like an excellent start to the storm season.


Edited by Nature's Fury (01/10/2018 21:43)

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#1471809 - 02/10/2018 07:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4830
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..2 OCT 2018 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......16.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........75%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........12C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SSW 8kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1027.9HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........5/8 cloud, increasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......24.0C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....11.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...10.2C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....11C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1026.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 38kph at 1138
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...No significant weather.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec7.6(131)YTD915.4(1168).

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#1471812 - 02/10/2018 08:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 101
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Great post RWM.

This thread was from earlier in the year, but it has some really good information about ideal storm set-ups for various locations in SEQ.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...orm#Post1447137

This picture below I sourced from one of Dr Joshua Soderholm's papers. I would agree that these are the two main track paths for storms in SEQ:



Thanks NF, I missed that thread at the time you started it. Will try to remember to get a screen shot of storms lined up properly for our area this year (if we're lucky enough to get one or two) and add to the thread.

Your radar image is an absolutely perfect shot of the most consistent storm track that I observe up here on the northern end.
And it also shows the exact point of where that consistent storm track ends and they either breakdown or split up and get messy.
That strong march up to the North East all the way from Toowoomba/Gatton comes to an abrupt end when they get to Cromhurst/Peachester.
Right at that point they seam to always do an almost perfect 90 degree split and I'd so love to know what causes this, I watch it happen time after time, year after year.







Edited by wetdreams (02/10/2018 08:38)
Edit Reason: spelling
_________________________
Going to sleep with heavy rain on a tin roof always makes for ‘wetdreams’….

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#1471836 - 02/10/2018 14:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: wetdreams]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2245
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The radar picture also proves that I'm not imagining things when I feel like storms always miss us here in the western suburbs. All the major storm action generally tracks SW-NE just to the south or north. It could be worse I guess - I could live in Marburg or Cleveland haha.


Edited by Nature's Fury (02/10/2018 14:28)

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#1471842 - 02/10/2018 15:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 82
Does Mt Coot-Tha impact the path of severe storms??

I am looking to sell our house and relocate.

My current wish list is:

1. good schools;
2. elevated block with views to the west;
3. located in a suburb which gets a lot of severe storms.

Any suggestions? poke

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#1471843 - 02/10/2018 15:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3295
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
That radar overlay is from 02-07, guarantee between 08-18 other places have had severe storms. Bit puzzled about areas missing big storms but the suburb over gets hammered. Those overlays don't represent which direction cells had travelled and from where? The steerings winds change direction on passage of a mid/upper trough. BtW Logan is the place to be.


Edited by Steve O (02/10/2018 15:46)

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#1471849 - 02/10/2018 16:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Stormwalker]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18700
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Stormwalker
Does Mt Coot-Tha impact the path of severe storms??

I am looking to sell our house and relocate.

My current wish list is:

1. good schools;
2. elevated block with views to the west;
3. located in a suburb which gets a lot of severe storms.

Any suggestions? poke


Mudgeeraba
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1471852 - 02/10/2018 16:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4830
Loc: Wynnum
Wavell Heights, Albany Creek, Caboolture.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec7.6(131)YTD915.4(1168).

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#1471853 - 02/10/2018 16:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 629
Loc: Bardon 4065
Courier Mail on Monday 1 October had an article about the number of 'battered' suburbs. For those of you that didn't see the article Suncorp Insurance have collated data from Brisbane, Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast regarding insurance claims filed between last October and last February. Most involved damaged caused by wind and rain. Interesting to see how these figures compare to the radar maps. So the number of claims and the highest suburbs were:

Brisbane South Total Claims 1834
Greenbank 56
Crestmead 55
Forest Lake 53
Marsden 40
Cleveland 40

Sunshine Coast Total Claims 1761
Buderim 86
Oceam View 46
Maroochydore 44
Noosaville 41
Kingaroy 36

Gold Coast Total Claims 1416
Jimboomba 53
Tamborine 50
Burleigh Waters 42
Helensvale 37
Upper Coomera 37

Brisbane North Total Claims 954
Kenmore 42
Chapel Hill 32
Albany Creek 31
The Gap 29
Ashgrove 23

Ipswich Total Claims 592
Gatton 29
Brassall 20
Redbank Plains 18
Bellbird Park 18
Boonah 16

Of course you can say this is only one insurance company and doesn't take a number of factors into account such as housing density etc but interesting reading anyway.
If anyone wants the full article let me know and I'll scan and send it to you or page 7 Courier Mail 1/10/18.

Cheers

Greg
_________________________
My Flickr Page

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#1471854 - 02/10/2018 16:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3295
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Mudgeeraba is at the bottom of a mountain though so pretty crap view unless you like trees. 2 primary schools no high school but none the less beautiful part of the GC.

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#1471857 - 02/10/2018 16:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5546
As far as the Greater Brisbane area goes, the southwestern suburbs have traditionally been some of the best in terms of severe thunderstorms with large hail, etc when we have the most common setup in spring and early summer (W or SW steering winds aloft and seabreeze front).

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#1471858 - 02/10/2018 17:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Steve O]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18700
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Mudgeeraba is at the bottom of a mountain though so pretty crap view unless you like trees. 2 primary schools no high school but none the less beautiful part of the GC.


Yeah but the storms are awesome and Robina can supply a high school.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1471859 - 02/10/2018 17:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3295
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yep I went to Robina high when it first opened love the place. But I like the storms up here better.

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#1471863 - 02/10/2018 18:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7321
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looks like Friday and Saturday are the go...Sunday/Monday look quite ridgy now for the coast unfortunately.

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#1471868 - 02/10/2018 18:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
I've seen some unbelievable storms in that Beaudesert area.Its going ahead in terms of housing etc. and you get some great views out to the west of the ranges and storms that roll off em.Not ready to put an Akubra hat on yet though haha

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