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#1478522 - 05/12/2018 18:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2535
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Thanks for the replies Ken, ColdFront and Gleno. So much hacking going on I thought I had been hit again. Last time it was my Internet Security decided to spy and hack me. Won’t say much more than last security was Vodka, (hint) . I have switched to Trend which is Japanese and it is working through and still picking up stuff I missed.

Thanks again, could just be a server glitch on WZ.

Nice thick dark clouds just passing over us at 1756. Looks like storm clouds but just showers.
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#1478524 - 05/12/2018 19:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I think we have seen the last of the westerlies until next winter. Will more be a SE to NE trade fest now and back to normality


Better hope the latest EC run doesn't come off then...another filthy cut-off dragging westerlies across at the end of the run. Might be gone next run though hopefully.

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#1478526 - 05/12/2018 19:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Why is the bom going for 24C and cloudy for Brisbane from Friday to Sunday. Is there going to be some system creating overcast skies during this period ?
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#1478528 - 05/12/2018 19:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Why is the bom going for 24C and cloudy for Brisbane from Friday to Sunday. Is there going to be some system creating overcast skies during this period ?

Some of the scenarios involve a vigorous relatively cool E to SE flow with extensive cloud and showers.

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#1478529 - 05/12/2018 19:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18719
Loc: The Beach.
No it's because I'll be down there from Friday to Sunday:)
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#1478537 - 05/12/2018 19:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Thanks Ken i could not see it happening, but ok lets see. Seems like a long range of these type of conditions down here in Brisbane.
but hope it does come off as it will make our summer 3 days shorter smile
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1478553 - 05/12/2018 21:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
OH btw i have been meaning to say how un el -nino like it has been here in Brisbane this spring/early summer. The weather has been all over the place and never really seen this much variation in this borderline type el-nino setup. Normally we would have trades for the past 3 months and dry trades at that. But we have had our November storm outbreak in October,and well below temps for October, dry conditions in November with periods of heat, but not consistent. So all over the place. Who knows it may lock into a really dry pattern in dec/jan/feb but who knows and i can't really pick this season. All over the place......which is great!!!
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#1478559 - 05/12/2018 22:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 946
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast

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#1478597 - 06/12/2018 08:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..6 DEC 2018 TIME..0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......21.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........75%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 17C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SSE 12kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1020.3HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud,distant showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........5.4mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......28.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....16.8C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...14.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 50kph at 1744
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY...Slight showers during the day, clearing overnight.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1478602 - 06/12/2018 10:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Mega]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I think we have seen the last of the westerlies until next winter. Will more be a SE to NE trade fest now and back to normality


Better hope the latest EC run doesn't come off then...another filthy cut-off dragging westerlies across at the end of the run. Might be gone next run though hopefully.


Seems to be a big variation in EC's Outlook compared to our own weather models over the next week.

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#1478605 - 06/12/2018 10:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
12z EC still showing broad low pressure and there could be possibility of more embedded lows in that too. Interesting anyway better than pure ridge.

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#1478606 - 06/12/2018 10:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I think we have seen the last of the westerlies until next winter. Will more be a SE to NE trade fest now and back to normality


Better hope the latest EC run doesn't come off then...another filthy cut-off dragging westerlies across at the end of the run. Might be gone next run though hopefully.


Seems to be a big variation in EC's Outlook compared to our own weather models over the next week.


In saying that, the majority of the EC ensemble's members are still going for a predominantly onshore flow (without any westerlies) for Brisbane for the next 15 days (although uncertainty about wind directions creeps in from later next week).

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#1478621 - 06/12/2018 13:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Mega]
one drop Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 40
Loc: maryborough
Originally Posted By: Mega
This.is.insane. I am stuck at work but it's chaos out there!


old news, but here's a nice pic the cops caught on their dashcam of this storm in maryborough. lightning hitting the water tower and some nice clouds.

https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/maryborough/files/2018/12/lightening-strike.jpg


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#1478623 - 06/12/2018 13:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: one drop]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: one drop
Originally Posted By: Mega
This.is.insane. I am stuck at work but it's chaos out there!


old news, but here's a nice pic the cops caught on their dashcam of this storm in maryborough. lightning hitting the water tower and some nice clouds.

https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/maryborough/files/2018/12/lightening-strike.jpg



Wow! I live literally just a few blocks from that tower..it is my view to the WNW and I walk by it regularly to/from work.

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#1478643 - 06/12/2018 17:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Nice Pics smile Brissy forecast not yet out but i reckon Friday will change from "cloudy and 24" to partly cloudy 27.
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#1478644 - 06/12/2018 17:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
And i knew that forecast would be wrong. Look at that, i didn't even use a computer and i was correct with the forecast and one degree out on the temp. Fairdinkum the Bom has serious issues 2 to 3 days out and is consistently wrong. They really don't relay on local knowledge. And for back up, yesterday the BOM forecast 24 and cloudy for brisbane for friday, saturday and sunday. I raised it with Ken asking why are they forecasting such a long period of "cloudy" weather for brisbane, considering, in brisbane when we get a SE regime their is only usually one day of cloudy, not three. During a full blown La Nina, sure this would hold but not for this enso period we are now in. I just think they rely too heavily on under performing models
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#1478645 - 06/12/2018 17:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
oh and to confuse things more they are forecasting "cloudy" on saturday on the left side and on the right side it says partly cloudy. Really a sad way to cover your butt i think. No offence Ken - i do love your work, but these forecasts give me the willies
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#1478646 - 06/12/2018 17:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
And i knew that forecast would be wrong. Look at that, i didn't even use a computer and i was correct with the forecast and one degree out on the temp. Fairdinkum the Bom has serious issues 2 to 3 days out and is consistently wrong. They really don't relay on local knowledge. And for back up, yesterday the BOM forecast 24 and cloudy for brisbane for friday, saturday and sunday. I raised it with Ken asking why are they forecasting such a long period of "cloudy" weather for brisbane, considering, in brisbane when we get a SE regime their is only usually one day of cloudy, not three. During a full blown La Nina, sure this would hold but not for this enso period we are now in. I just think they rely too heavily on under performing models

The forecasts are never totally reliant on computers.
Forecasters always have the ability to manually edit any forecast including using any local knowledge and this occurs on a regular basis depending on what's thought to be the most realistic scenario. If you spent some days in the forecasting office, you'd be very surprised at just how much manual editing and adjustments are routinely done especially compared to some other states.

As for ENSO phase, there's been countless examples in the past where we've had a number of cloudy days in a row regardless of phase. They tend to be less common during El Nino's but they still do occur especially at this time of year. ENSO phase has a strong correlation with the overall type of conditions we get here on the scale of months but it's not the only factor and day to day synoptic systems can cause conditions to buck the overall trend on smaller time scales and areas.
e.g. floods can still occur in El Nino years.

Not referring to whether the current official forecasts for the coming days will be right or wrong btw.

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#1478647 - 06/12/2018 17:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Speaking of forecasts, why does there have to be a exact figure? Wouldnt it be better if we say "low 20's " or "high 20's" in that way the BOM is covered themselves if there are any adjustments

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#1478649 - 06/12/2018 17:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
age of info maybe? everyone demands accuracy so they can whinge like loonies when there's a miss of a cpl of degrees. growing up summer used to be down to will the sea breeze kick in ( nice day ) will the southerly be on ( cool day ) or will the nor wester be in , ( crap day ) warm , cool or hot. nothings changed

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