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#1482661 - 25/12/2018 18:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Lovely weather for all. What else can you say.
oh yes..
Hope you had a great Christmas all.
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1482711 - 26/12/2018 09:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..26 DEC 2018 TIME..0825

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......25.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........53%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 16C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...SSE 5kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1018.5HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........35KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........2/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......28.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....15.8C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...13.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1018.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 29kph at 1340
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.

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#1482795 - 27/12/2018 07:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESSg has a decent broad trough with a couple of embedded lows developing across a large area of Australia.2nd Jan 2019
Moisture input from a northerly infeed sourced from the monsoon troughing region.
Add to that a possible TC on the Far nth coast that could be another moist infeed from the coral sea
Quite a similar set up to the last severe event we had before Christmas, with ex Owen and broad troughing.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml


Edited by crikey (27/12/2018 07:18)
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#1482805 - 27/12/2018 08:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Reading WZ threads this first monsoon burst is generating a lot of interest and speculation. What will it bring to SE QLD and NE NSW? I have expectations but I will wait and see. I'll mention it here. I read an article in the Townsville paper yesterday. It was an interview with one of the best climatologists about the enso situation. Unfortunately, it is now behind a paywall, but I have seen no mention of it in any Weatherzone forum. Very interesting.
Cheers everyone


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (27/12/2018 08:47)

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#1482806 - 27/12/2018 08:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
The general consensus for some days now has been a "one or more tropical lows likely to form near northern Australia next week but exact likelihood and location of any TC's still uncertain" picture.
The Gulf seems to have been the more likely area/s in the runs over recent days but we'll have to wait and see.

As is often the case, a lot has to come together for something like an ex-TC to reach down to SE QLD/NE NSW with much intensity - obviously it's happened before but a lot still has to line up well enough for that to happen.

P.S. thanks for all the merry xmas wishes... I hope everyone had a great xmas and that 2019 will bring some interesting weather (I hope) smile

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#1482807 - 27/12/2018 09:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..27 DEC 2018 TIME..0805

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......25.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........56%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 16C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...ESE 6kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1017.2pA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........35KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......28.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....17.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...16.8C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1017.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 30kph at 1529
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.

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#1482808 - 27/12/2018 09:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Reading WZ threads this first monsoon burst is generating a lot of interest and speculation. What will it bring to SE QLD and NE NSW?


Monsoon bursts mostly focus rain in the north leaving us dry. Very very rarely something will come far enough south to give us rain.

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#1482811 - 27/12/2018 09:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
That is usually the case Mike, but I always hope that during the so-called wet season, that some system will bring some good rain down here without the extremes like ex-TC Debbie.

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#1482822 - 27/12/2018 11:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Still no sign of the quidge breaking in the next 1-2 weeks which means monsoonal activity including TCs would likely be restricted to the far north.

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#1482824 - 27/12/2018 11:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not unusual for the first burst of the 2018/19 season.

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#1482872 - 27/12/2018 17:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
yea should see abit more up that way along the MT, think we might be getting close to seeing a full blown TC soon.. Will definitely be looking closely at where the convection is going to be on satellite a few suspect areas. Should be pretty boring in our region with fairly stable conditions over the next week or so, the upper systems seem to be relaxing abit now inland trough just looks to sit through the central interior, not sure if any moisture could make it out there with the monsoon looks to becoming more active over the top end.

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#1482874 - 27/12/2018 18:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
GFS doesn't break the ridge down until the 7th of January - the very last day of its extended run, lol.


Right through past Jan 12 now. Haha, wow.

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#1482875 - 27/12/2018 18:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Below is the latest 15-day meteogram from the EC ensemble for Brisbane itself, showing the distribution of wind direction scenarios from the ensemble.

The stronger the brown colour shading, the higher the percentage of its scenarios forecasting winds from that general direction, while paler shading indicates greater spread of its scenarios and therefore more uncertainty:



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#1482884 - 27/12/2018 19:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Nice one Ken. Just love those apps you have/find
. Thanks for giving us a look at tools we would probably never find ourselves. I just love your dedication to your work. It is great to enjoy your job .
----------------------------
Noticing on the 4 day Bom SYNOPTIC. The troughing has arrived in the West of WA and stalls ( FRIDAY 28th dec)
and stalls into Saturday
Sunday and Monday moving slowly eastward. The periphery of the trough is out west of VIC ,NSW and QLD on Monday and the Tasman ridge appears to be weakening.
The trough has to go somewhere , so you would expect ridge to move out to see as per usual.
Noticing on Kens wind EC ensemble the wind change to NE around the new year. That would be consistent with the ridge moving away and inflow from the coral from the TS and troughing up north .
In fact a wrap around low off the NTH coast can provide NE flow for mid and SE qld coasters
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml


Edited by crikey (27/12/2018 19:24)
_________________________
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#1482902 - 28/12/2018 08:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..28 DEC 2018 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......25.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........69%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...S 5kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1017.3pA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........4/8 cloud, increasing past hour.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......29.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....18.3C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....17C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.9Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..N 34kph at 1250
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.

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#1483008 - 28/12/2018 21:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 96
I only wish Ken had posted that whilst plukka was around. So many %ís haha

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#1483028 - 29/12/2018 08:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..29 DEC 2018 TIME..0750

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.0C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........71%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...SE 7kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1018.7HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........5/8 cloud, showers nearby.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......29.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....18.8C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1017.2Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 34kph at 1345
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Offshore showers early morning.

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#1483138 - 30/12/2018 08:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..30 DEC 2018 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......27.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........63%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...E 14Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1018.0HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........3/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....23.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1018.0Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 30kph at 2330
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.

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#1483146 - 30/12/2018 08:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
With a day to go 15mm is needed here to make 1000mm for 2018 - not going to make it. Local average 1168mm. Tank has about 3 days water left, before back to the $3.40 per kilolitre stuff..

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#1483154 - 30/12/2018 09:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
At least your keeping the thread alive RMV. Looking at the Climate Driver one and others I have concluded that nobody has read that Townsville paper interview with Prof Stone on the current and future Enso state. I found it by sheer accident and read before it went behind a paywall. Problem is that it was very pessimistic for rain (but NOT if you want lots of dry days). Anyway, that's how I understood it.
Cheers

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