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#1451678 - 05/02/2018 17:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LDRcycles Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 46
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Typical after all that dry weather, it turned cold and wet the day after I brought some new poddy calves home :-) Got some very needed rain here, and in only a few hours the change has perfect blue skies over us again.

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#1451680 - 05/02/2018 18:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1514
Loc: Australia
Possible severe storms next Monday and Tuesday according to models, still a fair way out though

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#1451682 - 05/02/2018 18:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1514
Loc: Australia
Strange how its rainy and overcast on the Gold Coast but clear skies on the sunny coast?

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#1451690 - 05/02/2018 19:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2109
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Exciting weather ahead. GFS going for 46 in the Brisbane Valley. Can't imagine that will come off but seems certain to approach the 40s anyway. Severe storms possible Monday through to Wednesday in SEQ.

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#1451693 - 05/02/2018 20:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3386
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Noooo please, N.F
Last time it was 46C the bitumen was melting down the road. Sounded like driving on water.

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#1451702 - 05/02/2018 20:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 746
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Can't wait bring it on.. Something half interesting even. Love it when I see that word severe!

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#1451704 - 05/02/2018 20:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3386
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Given its gonabe 40C, thats serious heat/fuel in right conditions. Hmm. Not sure I like to be where its gona to go bang.

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#1451707 - 05/02/2018 22:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1800
Loc: Kingaroy
If we're getting winter weather patterns now, what is winter going to be like when it comes?

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#1451709 - 05/02/2018 22:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2109
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
If we're getting winter weather patterns now, what is winter going to be like when it comes?


Good news is that we aren't getting winter weather patterns now or in the near future.

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#1451713 - 05/02/2018 23:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7054
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
meh. It'll be hot, maybe a few storms, nothing we haven't all seen during spring before.

Would prefer a follow up rain event for everyone but that's looking unlikely.

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#1451727 - 06/02/2018 09:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 362
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Our highest here is still 43.6 in 2014, wonder if we'll break that this year.

We had a good 18mm from last week's showers, quite happy with how it turned out, had a wonderful drizzly day on Saturday.
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Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1451733 - 06/02/2018 10:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Last night runs on the models were showing good potential, this mornings runs show the atmosphere being way too dry and way too capped. Probably the best it could do on the current run is there could be a small amount of moisture in the mid levels to start development above the cap with dry gusty storms.
_________________________
Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1451745 - 06/02/2018 13:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7054
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
You're not wrong Squeako, yuck. Dry air being pushed all the way up through the tropics. I do believe moisture will be a big problem next week.



Following that, GFS shows quickly flips us into a more typical wet pattern as a big cutoff low forms over SA/VIC - but I'll believe it when I see it.

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#1451746 - 06/02/2018 13:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7054
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
edit time expired...but it also sets up a long easterly ridge in the Coral Sea for the first time since November (without the flow being hijacked by any stupid lows or troughs). This is not to be confused with the much drier nature of the Tasman Sea ridge that's plagued us for what seems like forever. But again it's a case of believe when see.

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#1451748 - 06/02/2018 13:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 283
Loc: Golden Beach
Thanks for your thoughts on upcoming setup Mega and Squeako. That's why I am always on these threads - gold!

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#1451750 - 06/02/2018 14:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1514
Loc: Australia
looks like the storm potential has been wiped out completely.

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#1451759 - 06/02/2018 16:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3162
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
The dryline boundary hopefully is just far enough inland but I guess it will depend on how far the seabreeze can reach wouldn't write it off yet but yea when there's NW winds involved I imagine there will be some coastal capping still think there will be chopping and changing.

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#1451767 - 06/02/2018 17:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2109
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Well hasn't the forecast changed dramatically. Looks like a significant heatwave now for most of next week (high 30s across SEQ into low 40s) and almost on chance of storms before a dry southerly change pushes through later in the week. As others have said, maybe a cut-off low the following weekend but who can trust ext GFS.

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#1451771 - 06/02/2018 19:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5244
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Well hasn't the forecast changed dramatically. Looks like a significant heatwave now for most of next week (high 30s across SEQ into low 40s) and almost on chance of storms before a dry southerly change pushes through later in the week. As others have said, maybe a cut-off low the following weekend but who can trust ext GFS.

....which is why the consistently reliable NAEFS has been going for a big area of hotter than normal conditions over much of eastern Australia next week (normally, any strong cool change which leads to prolonged cool conditions after it will make a far bigger dent in those hot anomalies).

The EC ensemble, CFSV2 and POAMA are also still going for the possibility of wet anomalies for eastern NSW later this month but we in SE QLD/NE NSW are still appearing to be near the edge of that area so it still does look it could go either way and inconclusive so far.

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#1451775 - 06/02/2018 19:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 487
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Ken, are NAEFS available to public?
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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