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#1451776 - 06/02/2018 20:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Flowin]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5166
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Ken, are NAEFS available to public?

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html smile

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#1451778 - 06/02/2018 20:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 434
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Thanks KevD

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#1451814 - 07/02/2018 09:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1145
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Has anyone noticed that the bom brisbane forcast issued at 5am everyday is just a cut and paste of the previous 420pm forcast
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1451816 - 07/02/2018 09:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5129
tsunami: That's because it's standard for only the day shift to update all 7 days in the forecast.

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#1451817 - 07/02/2018 09:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1145
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Thanks Ken
Knew there would be a logical answer. Thought it maybe because of how much the government has cut back funding for BOM
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1451828 - 07/02/2018 11:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1484
Loc: Australia
I've got no idea why funding gets cut to the BOM when forecasting weather is very important and can have a impact on peoples livelihood.

Is it true weather forecasting in the United States / Canada is more accurate than in Australia? If so why?
Obviously the National Weather Service does not have a funding problem?

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#1451829 - 07/02/2018 12:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I've got no idea why funding gets cut to the BOM when forecasting weather is very important and can have a impact on peoples livelihood.

Is it true weather forecasting in the United States / Canada is more accurate than in Australia? If so why?
Obviously the National Weather Service does not have a funding problem?


Density of observations could have a significant impact I'd think. US population could achieve better observation coverage for the same funding/person. Canada would be closer to Australia I'd think, and the Arctic is poorly observed and quite relevant in Canada.

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#1451834 - 07/02/2018 14:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5129
gleno: I don't know re the official forecasts but I do know the model forecasts for the northern hemisphere have always been a bit more accurate (on average) than for the southern hemisphere due to the larger amount of available conventional obs data fed into the models.
We get the raw end of the deal with just about everything weatherwise here in Australia lol

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#1451835 - 07/02/2018 14:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5129
The possibility of enhanced rainfall later this month (mid to late Feb) for some sections of eastern Australia still being suggested by some of the longer range ensembles (which have a lowering of pressures in the region).

Will be interesting to see if our area can get anything or not.


Edited by Ken Kato (07/02/2018 14:23)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1451845 - 07/02/2018 18:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3122
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
This weekend atleast there will be something to watch locally. Not much in the way of precip so I'm not hopeful for anything to good...but looking at some forecast soundings only look like modest instability values but windshear profiles are somewhat interesting and with the heat forecast maybe could be a slight possibility for storms by saturday onwards. Just at a glance 5-10mm for most of our region perhaps better totals maybe north of Gympie looks to be from a thunderstorm but maybe will have a better look closer to the date.

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#1451847 - 07/02/2018 19:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 731
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Appreciate ya positive input Steve be good to see some towers building again here's hoping

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#1451853 - 07/02/2018 20:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2087
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
GFS is going for substantially hotter conditions than EC and BOM (at least 5+ or more degrees). For example, Brisbane hits 41 next Wednesday and Ipswich 43, but BOM just has 35 and 37. The key will be the seabreeze, how far the NW'lies push and if any southerly changes try and push up the coast. Definitely going to be hot but could be extremely hot if this comes off.

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#1451859 - 07/02/2018 20:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1083
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
gleno: I don't know re the official forecasts but I do know the model forecasts for the northern hemisphere have always been a bit more accurate (on average) than for the southern hemisphere due to the larger amount of available conventional obs data fed into the models.
We get the raw end of the deal with just about everything weatherwise here in Australia lol

Ken , regarding this, another one of my dumbass theories is that it may be easier to forecast conditions over continental landmasses , than it is over maritime regions , due to possibly a number of factors , coupled with the lower necessity to forecast over maritime areas. Happy to have that torn to shreds , but itís just another of my ponderings.

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#1451860 - 07/02/2018 21:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: BIG T]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5129
Originally Posted By: BIG T
Ken , regarding this, another one of my dumbass theories is that it may be easier to forecast conditions over continental landmasses , than it is over maritime regions , due to possibly a number of factors , coupled with the lower necessity to forecast over maritime areas. Happy to have that torn to shreds , but itís just another of my ponderings.

The main factor is definitely the better performance of models over the northern hemisphere than the southern hemisphere - it really stands out in objective skill stats pretty much every month, every year, for decades, very consistently. It's a long-known principle.

Also, the steady march of frontal systems that sweep across midlatitude areas such as the continents that dominate the northern hemisphere, often tends to be a bit more predictable in timing and standard tracks in the short term compared to a region like Australia, much of which lies under the subtropical high pressure belt (which is why so much of the country is dry) and where surface and upper lows and troughs wander around a lot with varying intensities.
Even the Coral Sea basin has pretty high historical forecast track errors for TC's compared to a number of other ocean basins which doesn't help the overall skill of MSLP scores in the models in the Australian region when TC's occur.

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#1451868 - 07/02/2018 23:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1484
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I've got no idea why funding gets cut to the BOM when forecasting weather is very important and can have a impact on peoples livelihood.

Is it true weather forecasting in the United States / Canada is more accurate than in Australia? If so why?
Obviously the National Weather Service does not have a funding problem?


Density of observations could have a significant impact I'd think. US population could achieve better observation coverage for the same funding/person. Canada would be closer to Australia I'd think, and the Arctic is poorly observed and quite relevant in Canada.


Thanks for the reply Mike

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#1451869 - 07/02/2018 23:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1484
Loc: Australia
Thanks Ken for the reply


Big T - You could be right with the landmasses in the NH might produce better accuracy on forecasts

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#1451879 - 08/02/2018 08:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Empty ocean might mean no features for a weather pattern to focus on compared to continents with mountain ranges etc. Or maybe less features when considering currents and SST variations.

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#1451881 - 08/02/2018 09:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Adam Ant Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1028
Loc: West Toowoomba
All of next week looks bloody hot west of the divide. Basically 7 days straight of 35+ temps with a couple of days touching 40. And little to no rain in sight frown

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#1451883 - 08/02/2018 09:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Adam Ant]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5129
Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
All of next week looks bloody hot west of the divide. Basically 7 days straight of 35+ temps with a couple of days touching 40. And little to no rain in sight frown


Which is why it'd be nice to think the scenario below has at least something in it for us.
At least it looks like temps might ease back from around the end of next week

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The possibility of enhanced rainfall later this month (mid to late Feb) for some sections of eastern Australia still being suggested by some of the longer range ensembles (which have a lowering of pressures in the region).

Will be interesting to see if our area can get anything or not.


Edited by Ken Kato (08/02/2018 09:04)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1451884 - 08/02/2018 09:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5129
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Empty ocean might mean no features for a weather pattern to focus on compared to continents with mountain ranges etc. Or maybe less features when considering currents and SST variations.

Oceans often tend to be easier to forecast for than continental landmasses (especially ones with big mountain ranges) and coasts because the latter features often disrupt the normal flow and march of midlatitude and subtropical systems as well as introducing complex orographic effects on precip, winds, etc.

To illustrate my earlier point about the consistent difference in model skill (which form a big part of manual forecasts) between the northern and southern hemisphere, here's a clip I made where I flick between NH and SH model skill graphs (showing how skill changes with forecast lead time out to 10 days) over the last 30 days - you can easily see how the values for each model are lower for the SH largely due to the difference in observation network density.
There's also always a bigger spread in model skill for the SH due to the greater uncertainty.
In the titles at the top of each graph, NHX = northern hemisphere and SHX = southern hemisphere.




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