NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 5 of 169 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 168 169 >
Topic Options
#1449156 - 18/01/2018 08:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Ozone Doug. Thanks for those thoughts - you seem to be one of the few that agree. Those graphs I put up last year on the solar cycle vs annual area 40 rain and the Townsville area showed something in quite a few years, but not in others. Those graphs only showed annual data, whereas the data I had on hand was monthly, so I worked it all out on an annual basis, since a graph showing 117 years of monthly data would be unreadable given the compression needs for photos here. I might look into graphs showing monthly data over 12 year solar cycles and see what happens.

Top
#1449162 - 18/01/2018 09:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1928
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Thank you RWM .These things are all part of the big picture.Carbon 14 has also been following the pattern of the solar cycles .
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

Top
#1449177 - 18/01/2018 10:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
WATL maps starting to show abit of a better sign now coming into the 8 day forecast.

Top
#1449178 - 18/01/2018 10:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Steve O
WATL maps starting to show abit of a better sign now coming into the 8 day forecast.

1-10mm aint much unfortunately... and I'm always cautious about rainfall totals from any forecast map at this time of year because a lot of it can be convective and some lucky places cop heavy showers or thunderstorms while others miss out. If it was a widespread steady stratiform rain event, it's a bit different though.

Top
#1449197 - 18/01/2018 13:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea its not showing much, though judging by those maps and the synoptics for around that period sort of shows it being more active than what it has been for the past couple of weeks?


Edited by Steve O (18/01/2018 13:16)

Top
#1449269 - 19/01/2018 07:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Just walked outside of where we are staying in Teven, 10 min's nw of Ballina. Very green down here,even to west of Lismore. BUT the mornings so cool and I would describe this morning as cold. Back to the parched Downs today. Hope some good rains coming soon
Cheers

Top
#1449276 - 19/01/2018 08:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Glimmer of damp hope on the horizon - 2-week multimodel rainfall probability graph for Brisbane below (3 ensembles with a total of 62 forecast members):




Top
#1449280 - 19/01/2018 08:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 207
Loc: Kingsford (Sydney)
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Just walked outside of where we are staying in Teven, 10 min's nw of Ballina. Very green down here,even to west of Lismore. BUT the mornings so cool and I would describe this morning as cold. Back to the parched Downs today. Hope some good rains coming soon
Cheers


Interesting week temp wise - My Mum was complaining yesterday about how cold it has been overnight at South West Rocks - usually this time of year you wouldn't see anything under 20 overnight - more consistently in previous years the lower 20's however this week has seen nothing over 17.8 degrees and a low of 15.5 even.

Top
#1449281 - 19/01/2018 08:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Yep, incredibly cool for this time of year and very low humidity as well.

Top
#1449288 - 19/01/2018 09:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yep thanks to the Tasman low but NZ looks to get some wet thanks to that then we will see what happens after.. Kens graph somes it up though with a humid onshore flow.

Top
#1449328 - 19/01/2018 13:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1266
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Pete , i travel between bne and the northern rivers regularly all year round and have noticed its often contrasting conditions. Cool maritime air bringing showers often extends as far north as the border , but then stops. Travelling north , i cannot tell you how often the sky clears around reedy ck. Air dries right out.

Top
#1449341 - 19/01/2018 15:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Yes Big T, know exactly what your saying.

Top
#1449350 - 19/01/2018 16:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
All to do with the terrain bending round after the border which is kind of neat, if I get sick of the showers and howlin southerlies I just drive around the corner and head up to Reedy way haha

Top
#1449396 - 20/01/2018 07:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Looking at the projected maps it makes me wonder is that all we have to look forward to around here . ..Massive stagnant highs in the Tasman. It would be gold to get a front that pushes all the way up here then stalls over the region, something that has been lacking this season.Not a fan of an onshore flow of humid showery muck off the ocean.

Top
#1449401 - 20/01/2018 09:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Just updating the local figures as I do each 10 days...
Av max 30.5C ( 0.9C above av ), Av min 19.7C ( 1.5C below av ) - making the temp anomaly to date minus 0.3C. Av grass min 18.8C, which is 0.9C below av.

This shows the effectiveness of the persistent coastal ridge keeping clear skies at night allowing the mins to drop way below average, enough to outweigh the above average max temps, including the 37 deg day almost a week ago.

Top
#1449407 - 20/01/2018 09:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
RWM could you please explain the difference between this year and past summers in terms of this "persistent ridging". It has always been my observation that we have a dominant high pressure/south east wind regime at this time of year. What is the difference at this point to the norm. Cheers in advance for any reply posters.

Top
#1449412 - 20/01/2018 10:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Snapper22lb, you can look at ESRL:PSD map room to look at anomalies over various time periods.

For instance last 90 days shows the general tendency towards higher pressure along much of the east coast.

Top
#1449426 - 20/01/2018 12:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Snapper22lb]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Snapper - As has been stated by many on this Forum, the persistent coastal ridge has been dominant for some years.

You are most likely aware of the LWT/LWR set ups around the Globe, usually presented with 500 Hpa info., reflected mostly down to the surface.

To me there seems to be also a longer term ( decadal ) lower level set up as well. For quite a while there has been a tendency for higher rain over the NW side of OZ, lower rain over the East, and higher rain and greater TC development/movement over the Pacific Islands areas, each ULW ( I call this Ultra Long Wave ) each separated by about 2000 +/- kms.

Sometimes the Monsoon Trough bends right down to Brisbane latitudes well to our East, with a Low attached, whereas over Eastern Qld it rarely gets below 20/22 South.

Our high pressure systems in summer are supposed to be centred down around the Tasmania area, but when they do lately they are short lived. A " bubble " high seems to develop over SE Qld/ NE NSW, which keeps possible lower pressure systems at bay.

The STJ seems to be also further north that it should be over recent spring/summers, and it seems to like being centred over the Wide Bay/Capricornia latitudes a lot more these days, enhancing wetter weather there and drier weather to the north and south.

All of the above have been my observations with no plausible explanations as to why attached.

Top
#1449430 - 20/01/2018 13:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy
The subtropical jet stream over the Wide Bay/Burnett and Capricornia could be why s
we seem to be getting more severe storms lately and less cyclones.

Top
#1449456 - 20/01/2018 16:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Thanks for the comprehensive responses. Statistics released yesterday show the last 4 or 5 years have been the hottest ever. Could higher land mass temps have a bearing on the passage, position or stalling of high pressure. Thanks

Top
Page 5 of 169 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 168 169 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 35 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
alby, controler, NCSC - Antonio, puca
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529247 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image