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#1446893 - 02/01/2018 18:01 NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3782
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
We look set for a couple of cloudy and relatively cool days on the coast, but after that, it will quickly warm up.

An intense but relatively short burst of heat looks set to grip Eastern NSW on the weekend. The hot weather starts a bit earlier inland, including Sydney's West. A change arrives on Sunday afternoon, but the heat still lingers to the North and inland.

The forecasts for the Sydney region just issued (Jan 5 to 9):

Penrith...: 36, 41, 45, 35, 37
Parramatta: 32, 36, 42, 31, 33
Sydney OH.: 28, 31, 37, 27, 29

The temperatures at Wallsend (Newcastle Western subs) are similar to but slightly cooler than those at Penrith.

Bathurst gets 5 consecutive days of 32+, peaking at 38 on Sunday.

It's quite a hot air mass, with 850 temps looking set to peak near 25 over Syndy on Sunday afternoon.

There doesn't seem to be much storm potential, judging by the forecast, but maybe the 'hot Southerly' pattern that seems to be being forecast for early next week has potential. The 'Thunderstorm outlook' on this site looks hopeful: WZ Thunderstorm outlook


Edited by Seabreeze (08/01/2018 17:21)
Edit Reason: extended by a day, and added storms to title

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#1446894 - 02/01/2018 18:03 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sorry but one day of 37 isnít intense heat?

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#1446895 - 02/01/2018 18:10 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 78
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Kino
Sorry but one day of 37 isnít intense heat?

But you well know Kino that Observatory hill won't be very indicative of the NSW/ACT conditions that transpire in this period.


Edited by ashestoashes (02/01/2018 18:18)

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#1446906 - 02/01/2018 18:36 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3782
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Kino
Sorry but one day of 37 isnít intense heat?


If you were camped on on Observatory Hill or near the beach you'd be pretty comfortable apart from a couple of hours either side of noon a Sunday. On most days, the heat doesn't reach right to the coast.

But those in Western Sydney will be experiencing an intense burst of heat, two days of 40+ and 5 days of 35+ in Penrith, for example, peaking at 45. A large chunk of Eastern NSW, including Western parts of the Hunter, Metro and Illawarra and forecast to experience 'severe' heatwave conditions from Friday to Monday:



Heatwave Service

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#1446942 - 02/01/2018 19:57 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Fair enough, thanks for the clarification. I wouldnít have thought 2 days of 40 in Western Sydney in the middle of summer is that unusual, but sure is warm. Isnít their average 31?

Our forecast sure doesnít reflect the heat, only mid 20ís boredom.

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#1446947 - 02/01/2018 20:03 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 860
Loc: Cammeray
45C out west on Sunday would be noteworthy on its own I would have thought

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#1446951 - 02/01/2018 20:08 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 350
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
2 days of 40+ isn't too unusual. However a 45C+ is quite a rare event. Usually the hottest day of the year.


Edited by Sidney (02/01/2018 20:08)

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#1446960 - 02/01/2018 20:40 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 925
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Yep, looking at a very hot weekend, peaking at 44C in the Hunter on Sunday. Upper Hunter staying very hot on Monday as well.
Impressive burst of heat, seeing most of our long term Jan records are around 44-45C, although Singo has 46C on New Years Day in 2006.

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#1446962 - 02/01/2018 20:45 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2751
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
A few days ago it wasn't looking like much heatwave wise, however things have changed a bit and it now looks like the warmth may hang around a big longer(especially inland).

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#1447140 - 03/01/2018 17:17 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 860
Loc: Cammeray
The Sunday change for Sydney now looks like a shallow one with more heat on Monday. How strong does the NWer look on Sunday? 37C feels like a slightly weird forecast, almost 50/50 on the sea breeze.

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#1447168 - 03/01/2018 18:59 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Jimi]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3782
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Jimi
The Sunday change for Sydney now looks like a shallow one with more heat on Monday. How strong does the NWer look on Sunday? 37C feels like a slightly weird forecast, almost 50/50 on the sea breeze.

The NW'er doesn't look particularly strong and the Southerly might make its presence felt on the coast as early as Noon, but take a while to work its way inland.

Forecasts for Sydney on Sunday, in order of distance from the sea:

Bondi ........... 32
Sydney OH ... 37
Airport ......... 38
Olympic Pk ... 41
Liverpool ...... 43
Penrith ......... 45

The sea breeze will start early near the beach, cut off OH by late morning and work it's way inland, but probably not reach Penrith.

EDIT: the few days after the heat finishes look like they might be wet and/or stormy. The models seem a bit unsure at this stage.


Edited by Steve777 (03/01/2018 19:01)

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#1447176 - 03/01/2018 19:46 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Jimi]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2751
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Jimi
The Sunday change for Sydney now looks like a shallow one with more heat on Monday. How strong does the NWer look on Sunday? 37C feels like a slightly weird forecast, almost 50/50 on the sea breeze.


The southerly will be through by 11am on latest EC prognosis, because of this I would only expect a few fleeting hours of heat this far east Jimi. If the change were to be delayed a bit then we might give 40c a nudge, but given the piss weak flow it will probably fall well short as it usually does.

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#1447505 - 05/01/2018 22:45 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 62
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Penrith is going for 3 days over 40. They upgraded monday to 41 unfortunately.

After this heat wave does anyone know what is coming up in the next 2 weeks? I read an article suggesting an even worse heat wave was expected next weekend?

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#1447507 - 05/01/2018 22:54 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Morham]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 78
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Morham
Penrith is going for 3 days over 40. They upgraded monday to 41 unfortunately.

After this heat wave does anyone know what is coming up in the next 2 weeks? I read an article suggesting an even worse heat wave was expected next weekend?

GFS has two days of 30-35 (penrith) next weekend and EC has a southerly dominated weekend with below average temps. So no need to worry at this stage.


Edited by ashestoashes (05/01/2018 22:54)

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#1447517 - 06/01/2018 07:38 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3782
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The cool change tomorrow (Sunday 8th) looks very weak and short-lived. 850 temps over Sydney and nearby areas tomorrow afternoon exceed 26, which is very hot. I think the BOM's forecast of 38 OH and up to 45 in Penrith tomorrow looks right.

The general surface cicrculation today looks very weak, so the sea breeze will be strong. I think OH will just hover around 26-28 all day from mid morning. I wouldn't be surprised if "todays's" maximum occurs at 9:00 tomorrow for coastal sites. Still, if Penrith and Richmond could get to 36 yesterday, 40 seems not unreasonable today out there.

GFS doesn't show a 'real' Southerly arriving until late Tuesday afternoon. Then it looks unsettled for a few days with a brief burst of heat next Saturday.


Edited by Steve777 (06/01/2018 07:42)
Edit Reason: clarify

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#1447536 - 06/01/2018 09:52 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 925
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Sunday now upgraded for 45C in the Lower Hunter (Maitland, Cessnock and Tocal).
Places with long term records could break their Jan record from 2013, which wasn't quite as hot here as in the Sydney Basin that day. (Jan 18th, where just about all records tumbled bar Richmond in Jan 1939_)
Today 39C and Monday 42C. Upper Hunter staying over 40C now until Tuesday.


Edited by DerekHV (06/01/2018 09:54)

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#1447546 - 06/01/2018 10:40 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 350
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
On Meteye there's one pixel just south of Penrith that has 46C for tommorow.

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#1447563 - 06/01/2018 12:47 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 78
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Are any records going to be broken by this heatwave?

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#1447569 - 06/01/2018 13:40 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: ashestoashes]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3782
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Are any records going to be broken by this heatwave?


This air mass isn't as hot as those which created records in 2013 and early this year. Still, Penrith and Richmond would only need to go 2 above the forecast. As I recall, 850 temps were 28 or higher on those record breaking occasions, against 26 tomorrow.

There won't be any records near the coast tomorrow. The Westerly component is too weak.

-----

Sydney's outer West is now up to 36-37. The Middle ring is behind at 30-35. OH struggles to get to 27.

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#1447570 - 06/01/2018 13:45 Re: NSW/ACT - Intense heat burst, then storms - January 5 to 9th 2018 [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 78
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Are any records going to be broken by this heatwave?


This air mass isn't as hot as those which created records in 2013 and early this year. Still, Penrith and Richmond would only need to go 2 above the forecast. As I recall, 850 temps were 28 or higher on those record breaking occasions, against 26 tomorrow.

There won't be any records near the coast tomorrow. The Westerly component is too weak.

-----

Sydney's outer West is now up to 36-37. The Middle ring is behind at 30-35. OH struggles to get to 27.


Sorry should've been more specific, but I was wondering whether any heatwave intensity records could be broken.

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